Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 251725
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1125 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
230 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

-Light snow ends across western South Dakota this morning

-Small window of opportunity for heavier snow/blizzard conditions
 in south central South Dakota today.

-Chilly Tuesday, warming Tuesday through Thursday

-Unsettled for the weekend with potential for accumulating snow

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Current surface map places deep low across southern Kansas.
Regional radar shows west side of deformation zone snowfall just
east of the forecast area, with KUDX radar showing light across
western South Dakota

Main issue for today is snow/wind potential for far south central
South Dakota. Model guidance backs deformation zone a bit further
west early today. With northern stream trough moving into the
Northern Plains, the window for the westward movement is coming to
an end. HREF is still painting 60-70% probability of >4" snowfall
and >70% probability for wind gusts over 40 mph across Tripp
County. Elsewhere, light snow across western South Dakota will
continue trough this morning aided by steep low level lapse rates
and marginal upslope enhancement. Only minor snow accumulations
expected. For the headlines, dropped the Winter Storm
warnings...leaving Advisories through 18Z. Also trimmed back the
west edge of the Blizzard Warning given placement of deformation
zone.

High pressure builds into the area tonight/Tuesday. Fresh snow
cover, light winds, and clearing skies sets the stage for some
cold mornings. HREF is giving northwest South Dakota 60%
probability of below zero lows tonight.

Upper level ridge builds across the area by Thursday, with robust
low level warm advection. Highs will be back into the 50s/lower
60s for snow free areas, with Thursday the warmest day.

A bit cooler and unsettled for the weekend as ensemble guidance
supports some rain/snow. Low confidence at this time in any
accumulations with LREF 24-hour probability of >0.25" QPF at 20%
or less.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1117 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

VFR conditions over northwestern South Dakota, and parts of
northeastern Wyoming will slowly progress eastward and southward
this afternoon. Most of northeastern Wyoming and far western South
Dakota will become VFR by 00Z. The exceptions will be LCL IFR
CIGS over the northern Black Hills into this evening, and areas
of MVFR conditions on the western SD plains with gusty winds and
areas of blowing snow. Also, areas of IFR/LIFR conditions with
gusty winds and falling and blowing snow, will continue over parts
of far south central South Dakota into this evening. VFR
conditions will overspread the entire area by early Tuesday
morning.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for SDZ013-014-031-
     032-042>044-073-077.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ046-
     047.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for SDZ049.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7
AVIATION...15


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