Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FXAK68 PAFC 241312
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
512 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF MAINLAND AK THIS
MORNING WITH AN EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH IS ENTERING WESTERN
AK ON ITS WAY TO THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. A STRONG RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE IS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE AKPEN SOUTH OF KING SALMON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST
UNTIL ITS AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 145 W WHERE IT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS TODAY`S WAVE TO REACH THE
KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON....THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGES BY THIS EVENING...SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT...AND FINALLY REACHING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SAT NIGHT. AS
THE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN HIGH WILL MIGRATE
UNTIL IT COVERS MOST OF THE BERING ON FRI. A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE
AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK AND REACH WESTERN AK FRI...ARRIVING OVER
SOUTHWEST AK FRI NIGHT AND EAST OF THE AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGES ON
SAT. SEVERAL MORE WAVES WILL FOLLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
FORECAST UTILIZES THE GFS...WHOSE SOLUTION HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR STEADY RAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL BE
ENHANCED BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRI WITH
THE INITIAL WAVE. THIS WILL REACH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN FRI NIGHT.
A SECOND WAVE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING LATE SAT INTO SUN AFTERNOON OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY...MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND REACHING THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN ON MON.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE BERING
HIGH WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH BRIEF
INTERVENING BREAKS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVES MOVING AROUND THE
BERING LOW...THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL BE DRY WITH ABUNDANT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE BERING WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH MON. A LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN
BERING WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND BEGINNING TUE. WEAK EASTERLY WAVES
MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE GULF LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

$$

DS JUL 14



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