Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290646
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
246 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY... BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY LATER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CANCELLED THE WATCH AT 9 PM AS THE STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THAT
REGION. DESPITE MOST OF THE FA WEDGED IN A COOL AIRMASS AT THE
SFC... MERGING BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORTS CONTINUING THE CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
COOL SFC AIR PREVENTING STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING THE GRND...BUT
NMRS REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL PAST SVRL HRS AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO
PULSE. AREAS OF FOG BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVSRY THROUGH 10 AM FRI OVER THE WATERS GIVEN CRNT CONDITONS.
DON`T SEE VSBYS IMPROVING OVER THE WATER UNTIL AFTER SR. CONVECTION
SLOWLY TAPERS OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SLGHT CHC ALONG THE COAST
AFTER 08Z. SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AS WELL. LOWS IN THE U40S-L50S
EXCEPT M-U50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS FRONT PUSHES A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN, BUT WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN...CHANCES OF MEASURING ARE LOW. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE U50S TO LOW 60S NORTH...TO MID 70S SOUTH.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT CONTINUED MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60
SE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
THE REGION. LEAD WAVE LIFTS ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND NRN VA
AS EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY
ARRIVE FASTER AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THUS
HAVE SPED TRENDS UP SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS...SAT EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
EXCEPT IN THE SE SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DROPS THE FRONT OVER
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL COMING ALONG THE FRONT. LIKELY POPS
FOR ALL. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS GFS
COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE PATTERN...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUES AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF LIFTS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER NC EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
RIDGING SWD INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA WITH CIGS AVERAGING 300-600FT. EARLIER SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE
WEAKENED AND MOVED OFFSHORE...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FROM SRN
VA INTO NE NC. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH VSBY FALLING TO 2-4SM BY 08Z. A SIMILAR
SURFACE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATING THAT CIGS LIFT THIS AFTN FOR RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG. SBY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY. STRATUS IS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR -RA AND DEGRADED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE NRN
MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. RA IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A MINIMAL CHC OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTN. A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...AND SETTLES S OF THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN
WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. NE LLVL WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND
NWPS/WNAWAVE BOTH AGREE W/SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT SEAS LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR
THE BUILDING SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT. LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. FLOW BECOMES SWLY SUN AOB 15 KT. COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT...STALLING ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT BUILD
SEAS TO 4 FT MON NIGHT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT. THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST/JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-
     634>638-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...BMD/MAM


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