Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 270542
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
142 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will approach from the west tonight, and will
slowly sink south through the region late Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The front will dissipate on Sunday, with another
cold front moving in from the west on Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Current analysis indicating sfc low pressure situated off the
New England coast, with a weak trough extending SW into the
mid-Atlantic states. NW flow aloft and an elongated shortwave
still leading to BKN cloud cover across the NE zones, while
skies have become mainly clear elsewhere with loss of daytime
heating. Expect even the NE sections to become mostly clear over
the next few hrs. Winds that had been breezy from the WNW are
now diminishing rather rapidly and avg 5-10 mph or less except
near the coast. Lows overnight will avg in the mid/upper 50s to
around 60F inland to the lower 60s near the coast in VA/NE NC. A
few mid/high clouds may return and affect far northern zones
towards daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the WSW through
Sat morning. Models in decent consensus w/ the arrival of weak
S/W tracking into the FA by Sat afternoon/evening. Combination
of daytime heating and that S/W in WNW flow aloft will likely
result in at least SCT convective development. Will have PoPs
increasing to 30-50% over most of the FA (by after 20Z/27). SPC
has outlooked wrn/central areas of FA in a SLGT risk...w/
remaining areas in a marginal risk. Forecast soundings do show
ML cape values of 1000-1500 J/KG, w/ 30-40 kt of effective
shear and steep low-level lapse rates. Main threats will be
large hail and localized damaging winds. Partly-mostly sunny Sat
morning...then becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs
from the m-u70s-around 80F on the eastern shore to the m-u80s
inland.

Nearly zonal flow aloft remains Sat night into Sun. A weak sfc
boundary settles just S of the area (by Sun morning). Another
S/W aloft expected to arrive late Sun...which again combined w/
daytime heating likely results in (at least) SCT convective
development. Not as warm Sun due to VRB clouds-becoming mostly
cloudy conditions. Lows Sat night mainly ranging through the
60s. Highs Sun in the u60s-m70s at the coast to the m-u70s
inland.

Will continue to highlight possible strong to severe tstms in
HWO for the weekend.

A break in the chances for SHRAs/tstms after Sun evening...into
Mon morning. A cold front will be crossing the mountains Mon
morning...then continue to the E Mon afternoon. Expecting
additional SHRAs/tstms to accompany that frontal
passage...mainly Mon afternoon/evening. Otherwise...partly-
mostly cloudy Sun night-Mon. Lows Sun night in the 60s. Highs
Mon mainly in the l-m80s (except 70s at the beaches).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A frontal boundary will push south of the area Tue morning, with
weak high pressure providing mainly dry wx for Tue aftn thru Wed.
More unsettled wx with chcs for showers or tstms then expected
Wed night thru Fri, as a frontal boundary will linger over the
region or acrs the Carolinas. Highs will mainly range fm the
upper 70s to mid 80s thru the period, with lows ranging fm the
upper 50s to the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail this morning and into early this aftn.
Scattered showers and tstms return to the region later this
aftn, becoming most probable from about 18-20Z through
00-03Z/Sun. There is a potential for some strong storms with
strong wind gusts being the main concern (and brief heavy
rain/reduced vsby).

Otherwise, the wind will shift to the N/NE later tonight and
become E/SE during the day Sunday. Some lower cigs/MVFR-IFR
conditions are possible Sun morning. A chc for showers/tstms
returns Sunday evening/night and again Monday aftn/evening.
Minimal chcs for aftn/evening showers/tstms persist into
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines in the short term tonight thru Sun. Low pressure
just off the New England coast late this aftn, will move east
into the nrn Atlc tonight. Then, weak low pressure will move
east acrs the OH valley late tonight, then slides ESE thru the
CWA and off the coast Sat aftn into Sat night. Weak high
pressure will build by to the north and off the coast late Sat
night into Sun aftn. Then, a warm front followed by a cold front
will affect the area Sun night into Tue morning. Wind speeds
will be 15 kt or less tonight into Tue, with waves 1 to 2 ft and
seas 2 to 4 ft. But, sctd aftn/evening tstms will pose a threat
to mariners this weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...AJZ/LKB
MARINE...TMG



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