Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1134 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE REGION
ON LATER MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1024 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM THE DELMARVA INTO CENTRAL NC WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED ACRS THE GULF STREAM OFF THE GA/SC COAST.
ALOFT, MIDDAY GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SUBJECTIVE MIDLVL
ANALYSIS SHOWED A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXARKANA
REGION NE INTO SE ONTARIO. TO THE EAST, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SLIP NNE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TOWARD THE DEEP
SOUTH.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST, WITH QUIET
WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTN. EXPECTING A BIT
MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT/BKN AFTN CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
COURTESY OF A LIGHT SEABREEZE IN LOW LEVELS AND APPROACH OF
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. DUE TO THE
RATHER THIN NATURE OF THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS, OVERALL SKY COVER
FORECAST SHOULD STILL AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR ALL
ZONES THROUGH THE DAY, YIELDING HIGH TEMPS QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE
OF YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER
LOW 80S CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT, MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO THE SOUTH, FIRST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE
NC...REACHING THE EASTERN SHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST MINIMA
ARE A FEW DEGREES MILDER TONIGHT GIVEN THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND LLVL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER COMFORTABLE AND QUIET
NIGHT WEATHERWISE. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST DOES NOT GET
MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE/REMAIN
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER  VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND INTO
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY SUNDAY
FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES...BUT A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER IS DEPICTED BY NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SW TO NE BY
THE AFTN. EXPECT THIS TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE TO IF IT WERE MOSTLY SUNNY. THUS...DESPITE
THE INCREASING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB TEMPERATURES....ACTUAL
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SAT VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S WITH A FEW 90F READINGS POSSIBLE IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE AND GET PICKED
UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. THESE FEATURES MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK LIFT
AND A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN VA/NE NC AFTER 06Z/MON THROUGH THE REST OF MON
MORNING...AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST 20% POPS MON AFTN EXCEPT ON THE
MD ERN SHORE. A BIT MORE HUMID WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S SUN NIGHT...HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS CALM TO LIGHT...AOB 5 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CU WITH DECKS 4-6K FT AGL. WINDS
GENERALLY S TO SE AOB 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE AOB 10 KT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2
FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AND 3-4 FT SOUTH OF
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
AND S-NE SOUTH (AOB 10 KT). SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED
TODAY...2-3 FT NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW. LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST MID
WEEK. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO WEST MON-WEDS AOB 10-15 KT. SEAS
AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM


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