Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ANOTHER WARM/MILD NIGHT IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS LATE THIS EVENING STILL HOVERING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW 80 DEG READINGS NEAR THE COAST AND
URBAN AREAS. STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THIS EVENING. APPROACHING COLD FRONT (LOCATED OVER THE OH
VALLEY) WILL PRODUCE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SUBTLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN AN ALREADY MOIST AIR MASS (PWATS ~2 INCHES). WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW COUNTIES...BUT A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY. SKY AVERAGES
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER THE
NRN PIEDMONT AND NRN VA. OTHERWISE...MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...CHC POPS
(30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS NNW AREAS DURING THE AFTN...LOWERING TO
10-20% ACROSS FAR SE VA/COASTAL NE NC. PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE CHC POPS
(30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORN. PCPN QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH/EAST BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...SO THAT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY. DID MAINTAIN
20-30% POPS ACROSS SE AREAS...HOWEVER...EVEN THAT THREAT IS
PRIMARILY THRU THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT. THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THE FRONT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LOW
TEMPS THU NGT IN THE UPR 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE. HIGH TEMPS FRI
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLING FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE
OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGHS SAT IN
THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY CANADA.
GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...THEN FLATTEN
OUT SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER FAR SRN VA/NC SAT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY NE NC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30% POPS/PRIMARILY
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SUN/TAPERED TO 20% FAR SRN VA
AND DRY ELSEWHERE). WILL MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS NE NC FOR MON DUE
TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS
THIS IS 5 DAYS OUT...POPS AROUND 20% NORTH. KEEPING POPS AROUND
20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY (SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT)
PREVAILS ACROSS TAF TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY N/W PORTIONS. THERE IS A CHC FOR TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT WITH ISO-SCT AREAL COVERAGE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME.
WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH 12Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 18 KNOTS
PSBL.

OUTLOOK...A CHC FOR TSTMS CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, AND
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THU...ALTHOUGH AS SFC/LEE
TROF OVER VA DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG NEAR 15 KT
IN THE CHES BAY THERE COULD BE A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN
THE BAY...BUT TOO MARGINAL TO CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW.
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE BAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BLD TO 2-3
FT LATER THIS EVENG. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN STALLS
SSE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NGT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NNE FRI MORNG INTO FRI AFTN...THEN TURN TO THE ESE BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR FRI NGT AND SAT...AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES SSE OF THE REGION. WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM/LSA
MARINE...LKB


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