Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 292015
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AT 300 PM CDT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD REACHED FAR NORTHWEST
IOWA...WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WERE
IN PLACE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/INTENSITY THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...AND THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING FUELED BY INCREASING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. WILL BE MAKING LATE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE SHEAR AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER PRECIP-
LOADED STORMS HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED NEAR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING...AS ANY
HAIL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. PWAT VALUES AOA 1.5 INCHES
MEAN MORE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
ONLY THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...AND A LOW ONE AT THAT...WOULD BE
ENHANCED AMOUNTS AND/OR REPEATED STORMS LOCATED OVER URBAN AREAS.

THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IS EXPECTED TO WANE OVERNIGHT WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER DAYBREAK...THE MAIN FOCUS OF ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL BE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WITH A SLOWING TREND COMMON IN
THE VARIOUS MODELS...HAVE LINGERED POPS A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE
EAST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH
FROM MORNING LOWS ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S...SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

QUIET...DRY...AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
MONDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT ON...

A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NOT OVERLY GREAT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE CANADIAN HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT A
VAST MAJORITY OF THE THE AREA MAY END UP REMAINING DRY THE ENTIRE
TIME FRAME.

ON FRIDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THE AREA. THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS ON THE
POSITIONS AND TIMING OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTS/BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM 23Z TO 01Z THIS EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED
CIGS/VSBYS DURING MAIN RAIN WINDOW AT MVFR...ALTHOUGH SOME
STRONGER STORMS COULD DROP CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...LOOK FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MAINLY IFR
CEILINGS...BECOMING MVFR LATER SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY


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