Area Forecast Discussion
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380
FXUS64 KEPZ 112130
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
230 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK DRY FRONT FROM THE NORTH
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE BORDERLAND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED... AND TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO OUR WEST WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO BRING
US PICTURE PERFECT WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL START TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE ON
SATURDAY WITH A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST (MPK
AIR MASS) MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO LATER SUNDAY BRINGING ABOUT ABOUT
3 TO 6 DEG F OF COOLING ON MONDAY. BUT THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD WEST
OF US STARTING MONDAY AND AGAIN MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY CONTINUING THE SAME SCENARIO OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. SO AS OF NOW IT APPEARS THE HEAVENS WILL BE COOPERATING
WITH THE PAPAL VISIT. BY ABOUT LATER THURSDAY BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH
OUR RIDGE EAST AND MIGHT BRING US SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE DETAILS OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE GFS BEING MOST
BULLISH INTO THE WEEKEND OF THE 20TH.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 12/00Z-13/00Z...P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. LT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E TO SE 5-10KTS AFT 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP VENT
RATES POOR TO FAIR THROUGH WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW WITH MINS IN THE TEENS FOR NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH JUST POOR TO FAIR RECOVERIES. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH A
LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITIES IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 38  74  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           35  73  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              31  72  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              32  72  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              30  57  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   33  72  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             32  70  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  30  74  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               29  74  31  73 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      39  74  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               31  74  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            36  75  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              39  71  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  35  74  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            33  73  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          36  72  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           28  72  31  72 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   30  74  33  73 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                32  74  34  73 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               37  72  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 34  68  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               30  65  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                34  64  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 31  69  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               31  72  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               31  73  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            24  70  24  68 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  30  71  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   24  74  25  73 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              24  74  25  73 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 31  71  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  31  76  32  75 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 29  75  30  74 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          30  74  32  74 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              32  75  34  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20/26 NOVLAN / GRZYWACZ



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