Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 181058
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
358 AM MST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Westerly winds will bring dry weather with near normal
temperatures to southern New Mexico and west Texas today and
Thursday. A deep low pressure system with a cold front will then
move across the southwestern United States Friday and Saturday.
This storm will produce windy conditions along with widespread rain
showers across the lower elevations with areas of heavy snow over
the higher mountains. Cooler temperatures are also expected Friday
through the weekend. High pressure will bring a return of dry
weather Sunday before another disturbance causes a few lowland
rain showers and high mountain snows Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rather active zonal progressive weather pattern will continue into
early next week. Upper low which caused Wedneday`s rain and
mountain snows was centered over north central New Mexico early
this morning with trailing trough axis extending to southwestern
New Mexico. As trough rotates through the CWA today it will
produce mainly broken clouds and possibly very light rain or snow
over the high mountains. Otherwise the circulation around the low
will produce westerly winds which will result in dry weather and
near normal temperatures today with short wave ridge sustaining
dry conditions and seasonable temperatures on Thursday.

A more complex weather situation begins Friday. A deepening upper
low will approach the northwest coast while a rather vigorous
short wave ejects eastward ahead of it across the southern
Rockies. Concurrently downslope flow plus upper dynamics will
induce lee surface low over eastern Colorado with surface trough
trailing into eastern New Mexico. Low and mid level gradients
thus increase resulting in breezy to windy conditions on Friday.
In addition weak pacific front moves across the CWA causing cooler
temperatures on tomorrow.

Short wave will be east of the Rockies by Friday evening but a
stronger deeper system will then move into the southwestern
United States Friday night and Saturday. This disturbance will
support lee cyclogenesis over the Texas panhandle on Saturday
while winds aloft continue to strengthen. Expected 50 to 60 kt
winds at 700 mb and 30 to 40 kt flow at 850 mb indicates windy
conditions on Saturday with advisories or even warnings likely
being required.

Despite deep westerly flow component somewhat abundant Pacific
moisture will flow into the cwa Friday night and Saturday. In
addition strong upward forcing expected as the area will become
located in left front quadrant of a 160 kt upper jet streak while
differential pva increases. This situation will produce widespread
rains across the lowlands with possible heavy snow over the
higher mountain areas above 7500 feet.

Subsiding northwesterly flow behind the trough will bring dry
weather on Sunday. However a deep upper low will move across the
Great Basin and into the Rocky Mountains Monday and Monday night
causing more lowland rain showers and mountain snows Monday and
Tuesday along with possible windy and cooler conditions again
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/12Z-19/12Z.
A few areas of ifr visibility and ceilings in fog through 15z.
Otherwise mostly vfr conditions expected. SCT-BKN060-090 through
00z then mostly clear below 10,000 feet agl. Surface winds around
5 to 15 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Westerly winds will bring dry weather with near normal
temperatures to southern New Mexico and west Texas today and
Thursday. A deep low pressure system with a cold front will then
move across the southwestern United States Friday and Saturday.
This storm will produce windy conditions along with widespread rain
showers across the lower elevations with areas of heavy snow over
the higher mountains. Cooler temperatures are also expected Friday
through the weekend. High pressure will bring a return of dry
weather Sunday before another disturbance causes a few lowland
rain showers and high mountain snows Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 60  40  60  41 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           57  36  59  38 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              57  35  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              52  35  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              33  27  41  26 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences   56  33  56  35 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City             48  30  49  33 /   0   0   0  40
Deming                  58  33  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               57  33  56  36 /   0   0   0  20
West El Paso Metro      60  40  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               59  33  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            61  37  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              51  36  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  61  36  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            58  37  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          56  37  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           55  31  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   59  33  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                60  37  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               56  36  58  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 46  32  52  32 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero               43  29  48  31 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                43  29  48  30 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                 49  26  51  28 /   0   0   0  20
Hillsboro               54  31  54  34 /   0   0   0  20
Spaceport               54  32  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            46  24  48  27 /   0   0   0  50
Hurley                  51  30  52  33 /   0   0   0  20
Cliff                   54  28  54  35 /   0   0   0  50
Mule Creek              51  27  52  33 /   0   0   0  50
Faywood                 53  32  53  34 /   0   0   0  20
Animas                  59  32  59  35 /   0   0   0  20
Hachita                 58  32  58  35 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells          58  33  58  36 /   0   0   0  20
Cloverdale              53  34  54  36 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



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