Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202040
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
240 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN MOISTURE OVER THE BORDERLAND SHOULD RESULT
IN FEWER STORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER THE RESIDUAL LOW MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE WE BE
ADEQUATE FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO SPARK ISOLATED STORMS WHICH WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A PACIFIC UPPER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND ANOTHER SLUG OF MONSOON MOISTURE INBOUND FROM
THE SOUTH WILL MEET UP OVER THE BORDERLAND LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY TO ELEVATE STORM AND RAIN CHANCES. FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND IT APPEARS THAT MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL HANG ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR THE TYPICAL DAILY ROUNDS OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS...WITH BETTER CHANCES LOOKING TO BE
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH LESSER
CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWN DAY TODAY
AS FAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED. THE MORNING
SOUNDING SHOWED A DROP IN PW...AND THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY VISUALIZES IT WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT
SHOVED TO OUR EAST AND STRETCHED THIN TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH IN
SHEAR ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE M-H80S. THUS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SIT ON THE EDGE OF CONVECTION WAITING FOR SOME
TRIGGER TO INITIATED STORMS. THE MOUNTAINS HAVE THE NECESSARY
TRIGGER IN THE FORM OF UPSLOPE FLOW DUE TO HEATING AND THEY ARE
SHOWING THAT WITH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND A FEW STORMS. FOR THE
LOWLANDS...IT WILL LIKELY BE AN OUTFLOW OFF A NEARBY SKY ISLAND
THAT WILL SPARK THE ISOLATED STORMS WE EXPECT ACROSS THE DESERTS
THIS EVENING. FLOODING POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS...BUT IT SHOULD BE
REDUCED FROM YESTERDAY. WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN THE CONVECTIVE
COLUMN WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORM OUTFLOW GUSTS NEAR 50 OVER
ISOLATED AREAS...AND EVEN A BIT OF SMALL HAIL.

MUCH OF THURSDAY WE APPEAR ON THE SAME TRACK AS TODAY...WITH THE
LIMITING FACTOR IN STORM DEVELOPMENT BEING A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.
HOWEVER THAT INGREDIENT WILL BE LURKING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS
DIFFER ON THE TIMING...BUT MOST AGREE THAT A PADDLE-WHEEL EFFECT
WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY...AS INCREASED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT IMPORTS COPIOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BETWEEN AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC LOW AND A CENTRAL GULF COAST RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO SW
NEW MEXICO. THUS WE EXPECT INCREASES IN CLOUD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH A BUMP IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE STREAMING NE ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND IT MAY SERVE TO PUSH DISTURBANCES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND THE PATTERN EVOLVES A BIT BUT NEVER REALLY
CHANGES A GREAT DEAL. WE CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SE U.S. AND PACIFIC TROUGHS PASSING TO OUR NORTH. THE ATMOSPHERE
NEVER APPEARS EXTRA JUICY...BUT WE ALSO NEVER SCOUR OUT ALL/MOST
OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE. THUS WE LOOK TO MOVE INTO A REPETITIVE
DIURNAL CONVECTION CYCLE OFTEN TYPICAL OF OUR REGION. GENERALLY
DRY AND RAIN FREE LATE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...WITH ISOLATED
LOWLAND/SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

THE ONE UNKNOWN WILL BE THE FORMATION AND THE TRACK OF WHAT THE
MODELS SHOW TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OFF THE BAJA IN THE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME. CURRENT PROGS SHOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK NW OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. TRAJECTORIES SHOW NO REAL CONNECTION WITH OUR
FETCH SO NO BIG INFLUX OF MOISTURE. WE`LL WATCH THAT CLOSELY.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z - 22/00Z...
MOSTLY VFR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH 1-3SM TSRA SCT-BKN030-060
BKN-OVC070-110 WIND VRB25G45KTS. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THIS EVENING OVER THE GILA REGION AND THE SACRAMENTO
MTNS WITH WIND VRB35G50KTS VSBY BLO 1SM TSRAGS SCT-BKN020-050
BKN-OVC060-100.

21-PARK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS TURNED WINDS
ALOFT MORE TO THE WEST WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THIS IS CAUSING A
WEAK AND DIFFUSE PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA WITH LESS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING MOIST AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE A DECREASE IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST AND OUR WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...THEN WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RH 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS
TOMORROW AND 35 TO 45 PERCENT OVER AREA MOUNTAINS...THEN INCREASING
BY 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAINES INDICES RANGING
FROM VERY LOW (2) TO LOW (4) THROUGH FRIDAY.

21-PARK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  89  69  87  70 /  10  30  40  40  40
SIERRA BLANCA           67  84  64  82  67 /  20  30  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              68  87  64  85  66 /  10  30  40  40  40
ALAMOGORDO              66  86  63  84  65 /  10  30  30  40  40
CLOUDCROFT              48  68  49  66  47 /  20  40  40  60  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   66  85  63  83  65 /  10  20  30  40  40
SILVER CITY             58  80  57  78  57 /  20  30  40  40  40
DEMING                  67  88  63  86  65 /  10  30  40  40  40
LORDSBURG               67  87  62  86  64 /  10  40  40  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  87  68  86  69 /  10  30  40  40  40
DELL CITY               67  89  65  87  67 /  10  30  50  40  40
FORT HANCOCK            70  87  68  85  69 /  10  30  40  40  40
LOMA LINDA              66  84  65  82  65 /  20  30  40  40  40
FABENS                  68  88  66  86  67 /  10  30  40  40  40
SANTA TERESA            69  87  66  86  68 /  10  30  40  40  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          68  87  65  86  67 /  10  30  40  40  40
JORNADA RANGE           68  87  64  84  66 /  10  30  40  40  40
HATCH                   67  87  63  85  65 /  10  30  40  40  40
COLUMBUS                69  87  65  85  67 /  10  30  40  40  40
OROGRANDE               68  87  65  85  67 /  20  30  40  40  40
MAYHILL                 55  73  54  71  53 /  20  40  30  50  50
MESCALERO               55  76  54  74  53 /  20  40  30  50  50
TIMBERON                56  77  55  75  54 /  20  40  40  50  50
WINSTON                 52  77  51  75  50 /  20  20  40  50  50
HILLSBORO               62  82  60  80  60 /  20  30  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               67  85  63  83  65 /  20  20  30  40  40
LAKE ROBERTS            58  80  56  78  55 /  20  30  40  50  50
HURLEY                  61  82  59  80  59 /  10  30  40  40  40
CLIFF                   56  83  57  83  54 /   0  30  40  40  40
MULE CREEK              55  82  55  81  51 /  10  30  40  40  40
FAYWOOD                 61  82  59  80  59 /  20  30  40  40  40
ANIMAS                  67  85  62  84  64 /  10  40  40  40  40
HACHITA                 66  87  62  86  64 /  10  40  40  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  83  60  82  62 /   0  40  40  40  40
CLOVERDALE              64  81  61  81  61 /  10  40  40  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/21




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