Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280944
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
344 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL HELP DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG
DRAINAGES AND ARROYOS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
INCREASES OVER THE AREA AND LIMITS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO
MAINLY MOUNTAIN LOCALES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STEAM UP OVER NEW MEXICO FROM
THE SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA AND A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT THAT WILL HELP FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM STRONGER STORMS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE GILA REGION...WITH A MORE SPOTTY
DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE LOWLAND DESERTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY.

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS ACTIVE AND DRIER ON
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH IN TEXAS RECENTERS OVER NEW
MEXICO. THIS WILL SHIFT THE PLUME FURTHER TO THE WEST AND BRING IN
A EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE MORE STABLE. MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL DROP A LITTLE IN RESPONSE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND AN INCH. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...AIDED BY MOUNTAIN
OROGRAPHICS. A FEW BRIEF ISOLATED LOWLAND STORMS MAY OCCUR BUT
OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS MOST THE LOWLANDS
EXCEPT FOR THE BOOTHEEL AND GILA REGIONS NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONAL VALUES WHICH WILL PLACE THEM IN THE MID 90S FOR MOST
LOWLAND AREAS.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MOISTURE SLOWLY GETS ENTRAINED
INTO THE CIRCULATION. AS MOISTURE FLOWS BACK OVER THE AREA
ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY WITH A REDUCED FLOODING
RISK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z-29/12Z...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 21Z WITH SCT TSTMS
IN THE MTNS BY 18Z. AFT 21Z..P6SM FEW- SCT080-100 SCT- BKN200-250
THRU PD. ISOLD LOWLAND AND SCT MTN 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060 THRU 08Z.
S TO SW WINDS AOB 12KTS WILL BE SHIFTING MORE TO THE E TO SE EAST
OF DIVIDE BETWEEN 18Z- 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN WHICH WILL LIKELY SET UP MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE LOWLANDS AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 99  74  97  73 /  20  30  30  40
SIERRA BLANCA           94  70  93  68 /  20  20  20  30
LAS CRUCES              96  68  94  67 /  20  30  30  40
ALAMOGORDO              96  68  94  66 /  20  30  30  40
CLOUDCROFT              73  51  71  50 /  60  50  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  69  92  67 /  20  30  50  50
SILVER CITY             88  63  85  61 /  30  30  60  60
DEMING                  97  70  94  68 /  20  30  40  50
LORDSBURG               96  68  94  67 /  20  30  50  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      99  72  96  72 /  20  30  30  40
DELL CITY               98  71  97  69 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            98  73  97  72 /  20  30  20  30
LOMA LINDA              94  68  92  67 /  20  30  20  30
FABENS                  99  71  97  72 /  20  30  20  40
SANTA TERESA            97  71  96  70 /  20  30  30  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          97  70  94  68 /  20  30  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           96  68  94  66 /  20  30  30  50
HATCH                   98  68  95  66 /  20  30  40  50
COLUMBUS                96  70  93  69 /  20  30  40  50
OROGRANDE               96  70  95  69 /  20  30  30  40
MAYHILL                 83  57  80  54 /  60  40  70  40
MESCALERO               83  56  81  54 /  60  40  60  40
TIMBERON                83  57  80  55 /  40  40  60  40
WINSTON                 87  59  83  58 /  30  40  60  70
HILLSBORO               95  64  91  62 /  20  30  50  50
SPACEPORT               95  68  93  66 /  20  30  50  50
LAKE ROBERTS            88  58  84  56 /  40  40  60  70
HURLEY                  92  63  88  62 /  20  30  50  50
CLIFF                   93  64  91  61 /  20  30  60  60
MULE CREEK              93  61  91  60 /  20  30  60  60
FAYWOOD                 92  64  89  62 /  20  30  50  50
ANIMAS                  94  68  93  67 /  30  30  50  50
HACHITA                 94  68  93  67 /  20  30  50  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          90  66  89  65 /  40  40  50  60
CLOVERDALE              89  64  87  63 /  40  50  60  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN



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