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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 261005
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
305 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Stronger winds return this afternoon as yet another Pacific low
pressure system swings across the Southwestern U.S. today. Deep
westerly flow will keep most of the region dry, but a bit of
moisture may bring light showers to the Gila area this afternoon.
Today will become windy with west winds in the 25 to 35 mph range
with gusts over 45 mph. Wildfire concerns are elevated and a wind
advisory is in effect today. Be careful drying across the deserts
as areas of dangerous blowing dust are possible. Monday will
remain breezy to windy, but Tuesday brings very strong, and
possibly damaging winds to the region as a second Pacific storm
passes. Again some precipitation is likely on Tuesday as it
passes. Wednesday brings calming conditions for the rest of the
week as high pressure builds over to ease winds and raise
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong zonal pattern over the southern tier of the U.S. allowing
the storm track to sag southward and direct a pair of Pacific low
pressure systems toward the forecast area for this cycle. The
first arrives today...the second on Tuesday. Both pass just to our
north and serve bring wind events to the Borderland, with just
minimal precipitation chances for most of the region.

This afternoon will become windy as the first Pacific trough
arrives from the west. A jet aloft is directly over the region, as
lee-side surface cyclogenesis increased low-level pressure
gradients. Mix down from 10kft will support sustained winds in
the 30-35 mph range for most locations, with gusts to near 50 mph
east of area slopes. Temperatures will be slightly above average,
high and mid clouds will move in with the trough, and the Gila
zones may see light and isolated rain showers. Most of the CWFA
will stay dry as PWs will rise only into the .25-.33" range.

Monday is our "in-between" day with today`s system departing and
Tuesday`s system approaching. The jet aloft remains over the area
and afternoon mixing will keep afternoon conditions breezy to
somewhat windy. Temps static...still high/mid clouds in the deep
westerlies aloft.

Tuesday is our day of most concern given the arrival of a deeper
and sharper Pacific storm system that is proged to pass just to
our north. A 130kt jet will be over our area and low level
pressure gradients will tighten significantly. Boundary-layer
winds in the 40+ mph range look likely. This means very strong
winds and possibly damaging gusts. Wind advisories are expected
and High Wind Warnings are likely. Blowing dust and travel safety
will be big concerns, along with power outages, downed trees, and
property damage. This storm`s trajectory is more out of the NW
U.S. and thus is does arrive with a bit more moisture. Thus models
generate a bit more QPF, over more of the CWFA on TUE. The
southern and eastern zones look to stay dry...but isol/scat rain
showers and high elevation snow is possible Tuesday.

A Pacific front pushes in late TUE as the system passes to cool
area temperature back below normal for WED.

Wednesday onward high pressure aloft builds over the SW U.S. to
displace the stormtrack back to the north and relax the pressure
gradients. This means a significant reduction in wind speeds and a
period of benign weather with warming/clearing conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 26/12Z-27/12Z...
VFR conditions with SKC-FEW250 thru 18z. AFT 18z increased mid-
lvl clouds west with SCT080/BKN120 ovr the Gila region. Thru 18z
Winds generally 250-270 at 15G25KTs and gusts east of area mtns.
After 18z 280-290 with winds 25-30KTS and gusts 35-45kts with
decreasing visibilities. BLDU could cause local sfc visibilities
down to 1SM across the lowlands.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Windy and dry weather across the region today. As a result
critical fire weather conditions will return to the eastern fire
weather zones. Both winds and min RH`s will reach Red Flag
conditions. Thus a Red Flag warning has been issued. Even windier
conditions are expected next Tuesday into Wednesday. However some
increased moisture may keep the RH above critical thresholds.
Wednesday of next week bring a period of calm, warm and dry
weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 69  45  68  50 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           70  43  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              65  36  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              65  39  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              38  24  42  30 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   62  36  63  42 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             52  36  54  37 /  10   0   0  20
Deming                  64  35  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               61  34  62  38 /  10   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro      68  45  67  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               71  37  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            75  42  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              65  42  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  72  43  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            67  40  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          66  42  65  48 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           65  34  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   64  36  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                67  39  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               66  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 54  31  53  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               51  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                49  29  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 53  27  56  32 /  10   0   0  20
Hillsboro               59  32  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               62  34  62  40 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            50  28  53  28 /  20   0   0  30
Hurley                  55  36  58  35 /  10   0   0  20
Cliff                   55  38  59  34 /  10   0   0  20
Mule Creek              52  36  56  36 /  10   0   0  30
Faywood                 57  31  60  36 /  10   0   0  10
Animas                  65  34  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 65  34  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          66  36  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              61  36  61  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ112.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MST this evening
     for NMZ404>407-410-411-413-417.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 5 PM MST this afternoon for TXZ055-
     056.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MST this evening
     for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14-Bird


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