Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 181014
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
414 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE RAIN IS ON THE WAY. THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE HURRICANE
ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND THAT WILL
HELP FUEL MORE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...ACROSS THE AREA. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. BY FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
WILL BE MOVING TO OUR EAST...WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL DIMINISH. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PARTS OF EAST EL PASO TOOK A DIRECT HIGH FROM SOME OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE. ISOLATED 3 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH A LARGE AREA OF 1 TO 2
INCHES. UNFORTUNATELY THE ACTUAL REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE STILL TO
OUR WEST SO THAT MEANS THE THREAT FOR MORE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. ALL THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE NEAR ALL TIME HIGHS AND WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WE WILL SEE MORE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SO A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SINCE THE TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM IS FURTHER SOUTH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
GILA WATER SHED HAS DIMINISHED SO THE RIVER FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
GILA RIVER WILL BE CANCELED.

BY FRIDAY THE REMNANT LOW OF ODILE WILL BE MOVING TO OUR
EAST...IN ITS WAKE WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE TO HELP FUEL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MOISTURE IS NOT EVER PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS IS TO BE BELIEVED...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THAT WILL HELP KICK OFF
SOME MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND AT THE SAME TIME IT WILL HELP BRING IN
SOME EXTRA MOISTURE. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME WIDE
SPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THINGS IN
THE ISOLATED CATEGORY AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE NEXT ROUND OF
MODELS BRINGS. AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CONTINUE 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...THEN ON FRIDAY OUR HIGHS
WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/12Z=19/12Z
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN ON THE WAY FOR TODAY. THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP FUEL MORE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY TODAY. CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND BKN050 FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WE COULD
SEE SOME IFR CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY BUT WE COULD SEE SOME IFR OR EVEN LIFR IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM
EXCEPT IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. STORM MOTION WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION FROM THE WEST TO EAST MORE TO SOUTH TO NORTH AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
AND NEAR THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE WILL BE MOVING TO OUR EAST...BUT WE WILL STILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS AND WE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY GOOD RH RECOVERIES EACH DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 81  68  84  67  87 /  90  70  30  30  10
SIERRA BLANCA           77  62  79  65  81 /  80  70  30  30  10
LAS CRUCES              76  64  82  64  84 /  90  70  30  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              77  64  83  64  87 / 100  80  40  30  10
CLOUDCROFT              57  49  63  47  66 / 100 100  50  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   74  63  82  64  84 / 100  70  30  20  10
SILVER CITY             68  59  78  60  80 / 100  70  40  20  30
DEMING                  77  62  83  62  85 / 100  70  30  30  20
LORDSBURG               73  62  83  62  86 / 100  70  30  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      81  67  83  67  86 /  90  70  30  30  10
DELL CITY               81  63  84  64  87 /  90  70  40  30  10
FORT HANCOCK            83  66  85  68  89 /  80  70  30  20  10
LOMA LINDA              74  63  77  64  79 /  90  70  30  30  10
FABENS                  81  66  85  66  89 /  90  70  30  30  10
SANTA TERESA            80  66  82  65  85 /  90  70  30  30  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          77  64  81  64  82 / 100  70  30  30  10
JORNADA RANGE           77  61  81  61  84 /  90  70  30  30  20
HATCH                   75  61  80  62  83 / 100  70  30  20  10
COLUMBUS                79  64  83  64  84 /  90  70  30  30  10
OROGRANDE               76  65  83  65  84 / 100  80  30  30  10
MAYHILL                 65  55  70  54  74 / 100 100  50  40  30
MESCALERO               66  55  72  55  75 / 100 100  50  40  30
TIMBERON                65  54  70  53  73 / 100  90  40  40  30
WINSTON                 65  56  73  56  75 / 100  80  40  30  30
HILLSBORO               69  60  77  60  79 / 100  70  40  20  10
SPACEPORT               74  61  80  62  83 / 100  80  30  30  10
LAKE ROBERTS            68  57  79  56  81 / 100  70  40  30  30
HURLEY                  70  61  80  61  82 / 100  70  30  30  30
CLIFF                   70  56  80  54  83 / 100  70  40  30  30
MULE CREEK              68  52  79  51  81 / 100  70  30  30  30
FAYWOOD                 70  61  79  61  81 / 100  70  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  76  63  83  63  85 / 100  60  30  30  30
HACHITA                 77  61  84  62  86 / 100  70  30  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          79  60  82  61  86 / 100  60  30  30  20
CLOVERDALE              74  60  80  59  83 / 100  60  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ401>413.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ414>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

BRICE




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