Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 292118
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
318 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
After another cool day on Wednesday we will see much warmer
temperatures on Thursday and Friday. We will be windy on Thursday
afternoon and very windy and dusty on Friday afternoon. We will
again be cooler for Saturday and Sunday with a slight chance for
precipitation on Saturday. The warmer temperatures will return for
the first of next week along with the breezy to windy afternoon
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Our long train of upper level troughs may finally be coming to an
end, but not before a couple more "cars" pass by. Currently we are
on the back side of the last system and some of the wrap around
moisture is bringing us some clouds and light precipitation. There
will be just enough moisture and instability to keep the slight
chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two in this
evening`s forecast. Then on Thursday our surface winds will swing
back around to the southwest and help warm our temperature back 5
to 7 degrees above normal. On Friday the next upper level trough
will lumber into New Mexico. This system will be slow to move off
so it will give us a fair amount of "weather" to work with. On
Friday the system will bring a very strong wind event. Looks like
winds will easily reach advisory levels (25 to 35 mph) and may
even reach high wind warning levels (35 to 45 mph) in a few
places. We will get the wind speeds nailed down in the next 24
hours. Since we will be so warm on Friday we can definitely expect
to see some blowing dust. Later in the day on Friday, the system
will sweep a cold front across the region which would help knock
the dust out of the air by early evening. Since the system will be
slow to move out, it will stick around on Saturday and bring a
slight chance for lowland rain showers and high mountain snow
showers. Like yesterday`s system though, I`m not expecting much
measurable precipitation. The upper level low will slowly begin to
move out on Sunday morning so our high temperatures on Saturday
and Sunday will be back a few degrees below normal.

On Monday the next upper level system, this time in the form of a
short wave, will dash across southern Colorado. This system will
be too weak and too far north to give us anything more than some
windy conditions on Monday afternoon. The westerly winds will also
help jump our high temperatures back well above normal. The rest
of next week we will see a dry northwest (or zonal) flow so after
an active 10 days or so, it looks like we will get a break from
the very windy conditions. Keep in mind that it is the end of
March and beginning of April and it doesn`t take much to get us
some breezy to windy afternoon conditions this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 30/00Z-31/00Z...
Upper low exiting the region but will keep some SCT-BKN060-080
through 03Z-06Z before becoming SKC-SCT250. Sacramento Mountains may
see some 1-3SM -SHSNRA BKN015-025 through 03Z. Winds will be
variable through the night AOB 12KTS before becoming more westerly
by 12Z and increasing to 15-20G30KTS by 18Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
As one storm system exits, another will be on it`s heels for the end
of the week.  In between on Thursday, expect high temperatures to
get into the mid 70s to around 80 over the lowlands and relative
humidities falling into the 10 percent range.  Winds will gradually
increase out of the west to 15 to 20 mph, so near critical
conditions are expected but think the 3 hour criteria will not be
met.  Friday will likely be a extreme fire weather day with
humidities again around 10 percent below 7000 feet but winds will
become sustained at 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts by mid to late
afternoon ahead of a cold front. A fire weather watch is in effect.
Cooler conditions with lighter winds over the weekend before dry and
warm weather returns for early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 45  81  57  78 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           42  77  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              38  78  51  73 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo              39  75  53  74 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              27  55  40  50 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   40  79  53  68 /  20   0   0   0
Silver City             37  72  47  60 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                  38  80  50  72 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg               36  79  48  68 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      45  80  59  76 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City               35  80  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            43  82  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              43  73  55  72 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                  41  81  54  80 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            41  80  54  76 /  10   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          45  78  56  74 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range           33  78  47  73 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                   39  80  49  72 /  20   0   0   0
Columbus                42  82  55  75 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande               43  79  54  76 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                 30  68  45  62 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero               30  65  43  60 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                28  62  41  60 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                 26  73  40  59 /  20   0   0   0
Hillsboro               36  78  48  66 /  20   0   0   0
Spaceport               37  78  49  70 /  20   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            22  71  34  59 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                  32  74  45  62 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                   29  78  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              34  74  45  59 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 38  76  49  64 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                  37  82  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 36  81  49  71 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          39  81  51  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              40  76  51  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for NMZ110>113.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

Brice/Grzywacz


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