Area Forecast Discussion
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319
FXUS64 KEPZ 272112
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
312 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist atmospheric conditions will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Locally heavy rainfall
from a few of the storms may lead to localized minor flooding
along drainages. High pressure aloft will increase over the area
and limit thunderstorm activity a more isolated pattern Thursday
through Saturday. Isolated to scattered Thunderstorms will occur
into next week with seasonal temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
moisture remains over the area for a continued chance of rain and
thunderstorms for the region this afternoon and tonight. Storms
will be more frequent in coverage and strength over portions of
southwest New Mexico where conditions are more moist and unstable
and favorable for strong storm development. The stronger storms
may produce periods of heavy rainfall, dime sized hail and wind
gusts in excess of 50 mph. Thunderstorms over the rest of the
forecast area will be generally weaker with less potential rain
fall, but could still produce 50 mph wind gusts and periods of
moderate rainfall.

For Thursday through Saturday, high pressure aloft will strengthen
over southern New Mexico and far west Texas. In addition, moisture
levels will diminish back closer to an inch of precipitable water.
These factors will serve to limit thunderstorm development to a
more isolated pattern for the lowlands with isolated to scattered
coverage in the mountains. Areas over the bootheel of New Mexico
may see increased storm coverage compared to the rest of the
region, being closer to deeper moisture. Temperatures overall
will be near or a few degrees above normal through the weekend.

The high will weaken and shift east somewhat by Sunday in response
to a westward moving low on its southern flank. Also, more
moisture will be flowing into the area from the southeast and
south which will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms.
The moisture plume will straddle the region well into late next
week with a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 28/00Z-29/00Z.
VFR conditions will generally prevail this afternoon/evening, but
with scattered thunderstorms area wide. The strongest storms will be
west of the Rio Grande, where strong microburst winds will be
possible. A few Isolated thunderstorms will persist after midnight.
Expect less thunderstorm activity tomorrow as drier air aloft moves
in.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered thunderstorms will slowly move into the lower elevations
this afternoon/evening.  Areas east of the Rio Grande, including the
Sacramento Mountains may see storms later in the afternoon/evening
than usual due to cloud cover that was hanging around much of the
day.  Expect overnight RH recovery to continue to be good to
excellent (best in the Gila).  While some drier air will begin
filtering in from the north tomorrow, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will remain a threat, especially in the higher terrain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 94  75  97  75 /  40  40  20  10
Sierra Blanca           89  70  92  70 /  40  20  20  10
Las Cruces              92  70  96  70 /  40  30  20  10
Alamogordo              91  70  97  70 /  60  30  20  20
Cloudcroft              68  54  74  55 /  70  50  40  20
Truth or Consequences   92  71  96  72 /  40  30  20  10
Silver City             88  65  92  66 /  60  30  30  20
Deming                  94  70  98  70 /  50  30  20  10
Lordsburg               94  69  98  70 /  50  50  30  20
West El Paso Metro      93  74  96  75 /  40  40  20  10
Dell City               91  69  95  68 /  40  30  20  10
Fort Hancock            93  74  97  74 /  40  30  20  10
Loma Linda              87  69  90  68 /  40  40  20  10
Fabens                  93  73  97  73 /  40  40  20  10
Santa Teresa            93  73  96  74 /  40  40  20  10
White Sands HQ          90  72  94  72 /  40  40  20  10
Jornada Range           92  68  97  68 /  40  30  20  10
Hatch                   94  70  98  71 /  40  30  20  10
Columbus                94  72  97  72 /  40  40  20  10
Orogrande               90  72  95  72 /  50  30  20  10
Mayhill                 75  57  82  57 /  70  40  40  20
Mescalero               78  57  85  57 /  70  40  30  20
Timberon                76  55  81  55 /  70  50  40  20
Winston                 85  59  90  61 /  60  30  30  20
Hillsboro               90  66  96  66 /  60  30  20  20
Spaceport               90  69  96  70 /  40  30  20  10
Lake Roberts            87  56  93  57 /  70  30  40  20
Hurley                  88  65  92  65 /  60  40  20  20
Cliff                   93  63  97  64 /  60  30  30  20
Mule Creek              90  60  95  61 /  60  40  30  30
Faywood                 90  65  94  66 /  60  30  20  20
Animas                  95  70  98  70 /  50  50  30  20
Hachita                 94  69  97  70 /  50  40  20  20
Antelope Wells          92  69  95  69 /  40  50  30  20
Cloverdale              87  65  91  66 /  40  50  30  20

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/25 Lundeen/Hardiman



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