Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 210544
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1144 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND LEGACY TEXT PRODUCTS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CLEARLY EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST WEST OF EL PASO AT THE MOMENT. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS HAVE DECREASED MARKEDLY AND OVERALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
DIMINISHING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MCV PERSISTS. WATER VAPOR AND MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THIS IS IN AN AREA OF PVA AHEAD OF A VORT LOBE EAST
OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...MOVING TO THE NORTH. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...SO INCREASED THE POPS FOR
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY. COULD GET GRAZED BY A
SPOTTY SHOWER OVER EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL.

KEPT POPS AROUND 20 FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT 30S IN THE GILA AND
CATEGORICAL POPS IN HUDSPETH COUNTY...TAPERING DOWN TO 30S/40S
OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.

WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...COULD GET UPSLOPE
CLOUDS "RUNNING AGROUND" ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND MAIN RIDGE OF
THE SACRAMENTOS OVERNIGHT...SO INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG IN THAT AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL WILL LIFT OUT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWS BEHIND THIS
FIRST LOW AND WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THE LATTER PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS
THAT UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE BORDERLAND TO BRING US SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE NORMAL. WEST FLOW THEN STRAIGHTENS...COLLAPSING AND THEN
MOVING THE RIDGE EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FLOW WILL
REMAIN DRY HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE NM BOOTHEEL. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT OPENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY
TUESDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS...DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. DEEPER LAYERS
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT CURRENT PW`S OVER THE CWA
ARE AROUND .8" AND MODELS SHOWING THOSE PW`S REMAINING AROUND
8"-.9" ON TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SO SOME LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IT APPEARS THAT
AS GOOD AS THE HRRR PERFORMED LAST NIGHT...IT IS THAT BAD TODAY.
MODEL SHOWS STRONG CONVECTION TO HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER WEST TEXAS
AND MOVED NORTHWEST OVER EL PASO BY AROUND THIS TIME. WHILE SOME
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THIS AREA...NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE SAME
COVERAGE AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT OPEN WAVE IS NOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES IN BEHIND...OVER WESTERN ARIZONA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
MAY ENHANCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY END SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS
RIDGING AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WILL LEAVE
LOW POPS IN FAR EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
BY FRIDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST AND ERODES AWAY AS STRONG
WEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS BETTER TIMED THAN PREVIOUS
GFS RUNS SO SUNDAY MAY BECOME WINDIER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z - 21/00Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AREAS OF SHRA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF KDMN THROUGH THRU 12Z. VSBY WILL BE
PERIODICALLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 3SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE
CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE AND LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET AGL.
THROUGH 12Z. CIGS AT KTCS MAY BE LOWER OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MOSTLY EAST OF
DEMING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN SOME
STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE MORNINGS WITH POOR VENTILATION RATES
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AND INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 56  73  55  75  53 /  40  30  40  30   0
SIERRA BLANCA           50  70  50  72  49 /  70  40  40  40  20
LAS CRUCES              51  71  52  71  49 /  50  30  40  30   0
ALAMOGORDO              51  71  52  71  49 /  50  30  40  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              41  56  40  58  35 /  50  40  40  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   52  71  52  71  51 /  60  30  30  20   0
SILVER CITY             47  66  48  68  47 /  40  20  20  20   0
DEMING                  51  72  52  72  48 /  90  30  30  20   0
LORDSBURG               52  72  51  74  49 /  30  20  20  20   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      55  72  56  74  54 /  70  30  40  30   0
DELL CITY               49  72  48  73  45 /  60  40  40  40  20
FORT HANCOCK            54  74  53  77  52 /  60  40  40  30  20
LOMA LINDA              50  67  51  68  51 /  40  30  40  30  20
FABENS                  52  75  52  77  50 /  40  30  40  30   0
SANTA TERESA            53  72  53  72  51 /  90  30  40  30   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  71  55  70  52 /  40  30  40  30   0
JORNADA RANGE           50  71  47  70  44 /  50  30  40  30   0
HATCH                   49  71  49  70  47 /  50  30  30  30   0
COLUMBUS                53  72  54  73  51 /  90  30  30  20   0
OROGRANDE               52  72  53  72  51 /  40  30  40  30  20
MAYHILL                 43  61  44  64  42 /  50  40  40  40  20
MESCALERO               40  62  41  63  37 /  50  40  40  40  20
TIMBERON                40  61  42  63  38 /  50  40  40  40  20
WINSTON                 45  65  46  67  43 /  60  30  40  30   0
HILLSBORO               49  67  50  68  47 /  60  30  30  20   0
SPACEPORT               48  71  48  70  45 /  50  30  40  30   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  65  45  68  43 /  50  30  30  20   0
HURLEY                  48  68  49  70  49 /  50  20  30  20   0
CLIFF                   46  70  44  72  41 /  40  20  20  20   0
MULE CREEK              44  69  41  71  38 /  40  20  20  10   0
FAYWOOD                 49  67  50  69  48 /  60  30  30  20   0
ANIMAS                  51  73  51  76  49 /  40  20  20  20   0
HACHITA                 50  72  49  74  48 /  60  20  30  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          49  76  49  76  47 /  60  20  20  20   0
CLOVERDALE              49  74  51  75  48 /  40  20  20  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE - HARDIMAN
PREV - HEFNER/LUNDEEN




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