Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 151212
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
512 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see a cool, and sunny day today, but clouds will be on
the increase on Saturday and then on Sunday we will see a chance
for lowland rain and mountain snow showers. For the coming work
week we will see a warming trend through the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We still have some disagreement on Sunday`s weather maker, but
models are coming into better agreement now. A cold front moved
across the region this morning so our highs today will be 10 to 12
degrees cooler than Thursday`s highs, but we will see plenty of
sun for the next 24 hours. On Saturday, the upper level low that
has lurked to our southwest for the last several days will eject
out just to our east, so it should not be a factor in our weather.
But then later on Saturday night, a second upper level trough
will approach the region from the west. By Sunday morning, both
the GFS and ECMWF have the upper low over southern Arizona with
precipitation chances slipping into the far western part of the
area, but the NAM model is running about 12 hours slower and a
little further north. The best chances for precipitation will
start Sunday afternoon and last through Monday morning. Snow
levels with this system will start off around 8,000 feet and
slowly drop to around 6,000 feet during the overnight hours. We
could even see some light snow briefly out west of the continental
divide and in the Sierra County lowlands early Monday morning.
Snowfalls totals are a little on the light side right now, but if
the system slows just a little, we could see advisory level
snowfall totals in the mountains (3 to 5 inches of snow). We will
have to wait and see what the next round of models will show us.

On Monday we will see the upper level trough move off to our
northeast and we will see a dry northwesterly flow across the
region for a few days. This pattern will keep our skies generally
clear, but will only allow for a few degrees of warming each day.
By the middle part of next week, our upper flow will turn more to
the west and that will allow our highs to get back a few degrees
above average. Our weather looks quiet through the end of next
week.

Of course everyone is interested in what will happen during the
upcoming Christmas weekend. In short, it is still too early to
tell what will happen. Remember we are still trying to get a
handle on this weekends weather, which is only 2 days away, where
as next weekend is 10 days away. Yes, some of the extended model
runs show precipitation across much of the area and a fair amount
of it is snow, but there is certainly no consistent model solution
at this time. One run will be dry, one run will be wet, and one
run will be white. Saying we are going to have a white Christmas
is a bit of a stretch at this point, when it is equally likely
that we could have a brown Christmas.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 15/12Z-16/12Z
VFR conditions expected today. Ceilings will be generally
unlimited, but on occasion we may see some high clouds - FEW250.
Surface winds will be light from the south or west and will turn
variable by later this evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
We will see a couple more cool and dry days, before an approaching
upper level storm system will bring a chance for lowland rain
showers and mountain snow showers later on Sunday. Right now the
snow level looks to be around 6K to 7K. Current snow totals are in
the 1 to 3 inch range, but if the system slows a little, snow
totals could jump higher. For many lowland locations we are
looking at 0.10 to 0.25 inches of rain. The rest of next week will
be dry with a slow warming trend. Winds won`t be much of a factor,
except on Sunday were winds could be breezy, but should stay below
critical levels. Min RH`s will be on the increase into Sunday and
then slowly decreasing after that, but min RH`s looked to be at or
above 20% for the next 7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 52  28  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           50  26  55  38 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              50  23  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              48  23  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              40  16  45  24 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   50  24  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             50  22  52  34 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                  52  22  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               54  23  58  35 /   0   0   0  20
West El Paso Metro      51  28  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               50  24  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            53  28  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              48  25  51  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  52  26  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            50  25  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          50  26  55  36 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           50  17  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   51  19  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                52  23  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               49  25  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 46  20  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               45  19  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                43  19  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 49  17  53  24 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               50  21  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               49  17  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            51  16  53  27 /   0   0   0  20
Hurley                  50  18  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   54  14  56  28 /   0   0   0  20
Mule Creek              52  18  53  28 /   0   0   0  20
Faywood                 51  21  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  54  21  59  35 /   0   0   0  20
Hachita                 53  21  58  35 /   0   0   0  20
Antelope Wells          52  22  59  36 /   0   0   0  20
Cloverdale              53  23  56  38 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15/15


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