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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172159
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
259 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT
TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THEY SWING THROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE
FIRST STORM WILL PRODUCE LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SECOND STORM WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THE SAME MIDDAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 6500 FT WITH RAIN BELOW. SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TRACE TO 2 INCH RANGE BELOW 7000
FT AND IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GILA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE MAY SEE A MIX OF NIGHT TIME AND
EARLY MORNING SNOW AND RAIN...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THE SECOND STORM EXITS THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS COOL
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH OVER
THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF TWO PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS HAS BEEN SLOWLY STREAMING
EAST ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. FOR THE MOST PART IT HAS MEANT CLOUDS
AND WINDS TODAY FOR THE REGION. WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
HAVE BEEN COMMON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED WEST IN THE
TUCSON VICINITY...BUT WE HAVE SEEN PCPN OVER THE CWFA. GENERALLY
STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS RACING EAST ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE GILA HIGH COUNTRY AND THE HIGH SACS.
CLOUDCROFT HAS GOTTEN A DUSTING OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN QUITE LOW...IN THE TRACE TO .04" RANGE. THE NAM
MODEL SHOWS THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF INSTABILITY WORKING ACROSS THE
GILA AND SIERRA COUNTY AREAS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...FOR A
SLIGHT RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

THIS FIRST SYSTEM...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWFA. SLIGHTLY INCREASING CHANCES OF PCPN EXPECTED
DURING THESE PERIODS. LOOKING AT THE VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE... THE
SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 6500 FT OVERNIGHT. THE BEST SNOW
POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE GILA WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE
7500 FT...LIGHTER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE SACS.

THE SECOND STORM RACES IN RIGHT BEHIND THE FIRST MIDDAY THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROGED TO DIG A BIT DEEPER AND PASS WITH A MORE
SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY. THE NAM AND ECMWF PCPN TRACKS FAVOR AREAS
SOUTH OF OUR CWFA...THE GFS RIGHT OVER THE CWFA. THE PCPN WINDOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS 18Z THU THROUGH 06Z FRI...WITH PCPN ENDING
WEST TO EAST FROM 00Z TO 12Z FRI. THIS SYSTEM IS REALLY NO COOLER
THAN TODAY/TONIGHT`S WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND -22C...AND NO INFLUX OF
COOLER SURFACE AIR. JUST A SLIGHT COOLING FROM TONIGHT FOR THU
NIGHT DUE TO TOP DOWN COOLING. THUS SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO CRASH MUCH...REMAINING AROUND 6000-6500 FT EL. ADDITIONAL PCPN
ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIAL. THE SECOND STORM WILL LIKELY
MIMIC THE FIRST IN TERMS OF SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR BOTH STORMS ABOVE 7500FT LOOKS TO FALL IN
THE 3-5" RANGE...AND TRACE TO 2 INCHES IN THE 6500FT TO 7500FT
RANGE. THE SACS LOOK TO FALL SHORT OF SNOW AMOUNTS NECESSARY FOR
AN ADVISORY...BUT THE GILA AREAS FALLS RIGHT IN...THUS WE WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE GILA...ABV 7500FT FOR THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT.

THIS SECOND SYSTEM ALSO EXITS PROMPTLY AND DOES SO FRIDAY MORNING.
IN ITS WAKE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER FOR FRIDAY WHICH IS
QUICKLY FLATTENED BY A PACIFIC TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THIS NEXT
TROUGH WAS ONCE ADVERTISED TO BE A POTENTIAL MAJOR IMPACT EVENT
FOR US...BUT CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS TOO NORTH AND EAST
FOR ANY SIG WX FOR OUR AREA. THUS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIODS WE WILL FIND OURSELVES UNDER THE DEEP AND DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW OF A WEST COAST RIDGE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIR AND MILD WITH
CHRISTMAS WEEK TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z- 19/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH P6SM
SCT-BKN050-070 27012KT. AFTER 19/18Z CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER
WITH BKN035-050 OVC100 IN PLACE AT MOST TAF SITES BY 19/00Z.
MEANWHILE BRIEF EXCURSIONS INTO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS 18/00Z TO
18/06Z WITH PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING IN 3SM BKN030.

27-LANEY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL INITIALLY PRODUCE MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...
INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTOS. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY
RUN BETWEEN 6000 AND 6500 FEET BUT COULD LOWER BRIEFLY WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SEVERAL INCHES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL TAKE OVER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER QUICK HITTING DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING SO NO ADDITIONAL WETTING PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE MIN RH VALUES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 40 AND
50 PERCENT OVER THE LOWLANDS AND AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR THURSDAY. VALUES WILL THEN DROP BACK TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40
PERCENT FOR MOST ELEVATIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE VENT
RATES WILL BE DROPPING AGAIN INTO THE POOR TO SOMETIMES FAIR
CATEGORIES AS TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY.

27-LANEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 38  56  35  57  31 /   0  20  30   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           35  56  34  56  31 /   0  10  30   0   0
LAS CRUCES              33  54  32  56  28 /   0  20  30   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              33  55  30  55  27 /  20  20  30   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              24  35  21  37  21 /  20  20  50   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   33  50  31  53  28 /  10  30  30   0   0
SILVER CITY             32  44  28  48  28 /  30  40  40   0   0
DEMING                  32  53  30  55  26 /  10  30  30   0   0
LORDSBURG               32  50  30  54  26 /  20  50  30   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      37  55  33  56  34 /   0  20  30   0   0
DELL CITY               32  55  30  57  27 /   0  10  30   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            35  61  35  58  30 /   0  10  30   0   0
LOMA LINDA              35  54  35  54  32 /   0  20  40   0   0
FABENS                  34  58  32  57  29 /   0  20  30   0   0
SANTA TERESA            34  55  32  56  27 /   0  20  30   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          38  54  34  56  31 /  10  20  30   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           26  54  25  55  22 /  10  20  30   0   0
HATCH                   32  54  30  56  26 /  10  30  30   0   0
COLUMBUS                36  53  34  56  29 /  10  20  40   0   0
OROGRANDE               34  55  31  55  28 /  10  20  30   0   0
MAYHILL                 31  45  27  46  26 /  20  20  50   0   0
MESCALERO               27  45  23  45  22 /  20  20  50   0   0
TIMBERON                27  44  25  45  25 /  20  20  50   0   0
WINSTON                 28  42  24  46  24 /  20  40  50   0   0
HILLSBORO               32  47  31  51  28 /  20  40  40   0   0
SPACEPORT               28  52  27  54  24 /  10  20  30   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            29  44  25  47  24 /  40  50  40   0   0
HURLEY                  30  46  29  50  26 /  20  40  40   0   0
CLIFF                   31  48  33  54  23 /  40  40  20   0   0
MULE CREEK              30  46  31  50  19 /  50  50  30   0   0
FAYWOOD                 32  46  31  50  29 /  20  40  40   0   0
ANIMAS                  34  53  29  56  26 /  20  50  30   0   0
HACHITA                 31  53  29  56  23 /  10  50  30   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          32  55  29  57  24 /  20  60  30   0   0
CLOVERDALE              33  51  30  54  27 /  20  50  40   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NMZ402.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/27





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