Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 310955
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
355 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A complex weather situation will exist over southern New Mexico
and west Texas as an upper disturbance and weak cold front move
across the region while slightly moist and unstable air flows into
the area. This weather pattern will bring a few showers and
thunderstorms to the Borderland through the weekend. Temperatures
will remain seasonably warm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low was centered over southwestern Arizona early
this morning with a weak short wave ejecting northeast into New
Mexico ands west Texas. The air mass remains somewhat moist at low
levels as south to southeast winds continue to transport water
vapor into the region with surface dewpoints mostly in the 40s and
lower 50s. As a result a few showers and thunderstorms continue
moving to the northeast across eastern portions of the cwa.

Water vapor images showing a well defined dry slot moving into the
area from the southwest with low level winds expected to shift to
the southwest most areas west of the rio grander today. Thus drier
air expected to advect into the region today with any convection
confined to the far eastern zones or the higher mountains.

Tonight and Wednesday the situation becomes even more complex as
the upper low drifts further east to just south of the New Mexico
border while a weak cold front pushes northeast to southwest
across the cwa. Low level easterly winds behind the front will
push moisture back into southern New Mexico and west Texas with
dewpoints rising back into the 40s most locations causing air mass
to become unstable with mucapes around 500 to 1000 and
precipitable water .5 to 1 inch. With the upper wave providing
weak dynamic lifting expect increasing convection Tuesday night
and especially Wednesday with greatest coverage central and
eastern zones along with higher mountains. Weak cool air advection
will also lower Wednesday high temperatures to around 5 degrees
below normal.

Thursday through Monday high amplitude upper ridge will remain
almost stationary west of the divide while low level east to
southeast winds continue to push somewhat moist air into the
region. This will keep air mass generally weakly unstable despite
warming aloft associated with the ridge. Overall this pattern
will bring seasonably warm temperatures with a few mainly high
mountain thunderstorms through extended periods.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 31/12z-01/12z.
A few areas of mvfr ceilings and visibilities mainly east of the
Rio Grande in showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise vfr conditions
will occur over most of the region with surface winds generally
less than 20 kt outside of thunderstorm areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A complex weather situation will exist over southern New Mexico
and west Texas as an upper disturbance and weak cold front move
across the region while slightly moist and unstable air flows into
the area. This weather pattern will bring a few showers and
thunderstorms to the Borderland through the weekend. Temperatures
will remain seasonably warm with surface winds mostly around 5 to
15 mph except for stronger gusts near thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 90  63  86  62 /   0  10  30  20
Sierra Blanca           88  59  81  58 /  10  20  40  40
Las Cruces              88  56  84  57 /   0  10  30  10
Alamogordo              89  58  82  58 /   0  10  30  30
Cloudcroft              68  37  61  43 /  10  20  50  40
Truth or Consequences   87  56  81  57 /   0  10  30  10
Silver City             81  47  78  51 /  10  10  20  10
Deming                  89  53  85  57 /   0  10  20   0
Lordsburg               88  54  86  57 /   0  10  20  10
West El Paso Metro      89  63  86  63 /   0  10  30  20
Dell City               90  55  81  54 /  10  20  40  30
Fort Hancock            91  61  86  59 /  10  20  40  30
Loma Linda              84  56  80  56 /   0  20  30  30
Fabens                  91  59  86  59 /   0  10  30  30
Santa Teresa            89  59  85  59 /   0  10  30  20
White Sands HQ          88  62  83  62 /   0  10  30  10
Jornada Range           88  50  83  55 /   0  10  30  20
Hatch                   90  53  86  56 /   0  10  30  20
Columbus                88  58  86  60 /   0  10  20   0
Orogrande               89  58  83  58 /   0  10  30  30
Mayhill                 78  44  70  45 /  10  20  50  40
Mescalero               77  42  68  44 /  10  20  50  50
Timberon                74  41  70  42 /  10  20  50  40
Winston                 81  42  75  44 /  10  10  40  20
Hillsboro               85  51  81  53 /  10  10  20  10
Spaceport               87  49  82  54 /   0  10  30  20
Lake Roberts            85  38  80  43 /  10  10  40  20
Hurley                  83  47  80  50 /   0  10  20  10
Cliff                   87  43  85  48 /  10  10  20  10
Mule Creek              85  40  83  44 /  10  10  20  10
Faywood                 84  49  81  51 /   0  10  20  10
Animas                  87  54  86  57 /   0  10  20   0
Hachita                 88  55  86  56 /   0  10  20   0
Antelope Wells          85  54  85  55 /   0  10  20   0
Cloverdale              80  49  80  53 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



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