Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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547
FXUS64 KEWX 240435
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1035 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.AVIATION...
For KAUS, KSAT, KSSF, CIGs/VSBYs will continue to lower to IFR/LIFR
overnight with VCSH as an upper level impulse and southerly low level
jet with surface winds of 5 to 10 KTs interact with a nearby front
to provide upward forcing. There could be TSRA, however PROBs are
low. Will monitor radar trends for possible later mention of TSRA or
prevailing SHRA. The passage of a Pacific cold front ends the rain
early to mid afternoon with clouds eroding to VFR skies as winds
shift to W to NW at 5 to 10 KTs, then N Saturday night.

For KDRT, LIFR CIGs/VSBYs overnight with VCSH and similar thinking
of SHRA/TSRA as the other sites on SE winds of 5 to 10 KTs. The
Pacific front moves across around midday bringing NW winds and VFR
skies.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Late afternoon surface observations show a warm front is moving
northward across south central Texas. We are seeing temperatures in
the 60s and 70s south of the front, with 50s north of the boundary.
The warm front will continue to move northward this evening and
overnight as southerly flow in the low-levels increases. Models
suggest some fairly impressive 850mb wind speeds of 30-50kt will
occur generally along and east of the I-35 corridor after midnight
tonight. As the front moves northward into the Hill Country, it
should begin to slow it`s northward progress. This should help to
increase precipitation chances late tonight for areas generally
north of a Kerrville to Georgetown line. Precipitation chances will
continue tomorrow morning across most areas as a Pacific cold front
moves in from the west. Rain chances will be highest generally along
and north of Highway 71 during the morning hours. The front will
generally slow it`s eastward progress during the afternoon on
Saturday and this will continue rain chances for most areas along and
east of I-35. For Saturday night, the cold front will push into the
coastal plains, leaving rain chances only for areas east of the I-35
corridor.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
On Sunday, we should see an increase in southeasterly winds,
resulting in an uptick in low-level moisture. The best chance for
rainfall on Sunday should be confined to the coastal plains as the
models show a fairly stout mid-level shortwave trough moving
northeast along the Texas coast. A weak surge of surface high
pressure will move in Sunday night, bringing some drier air in the
low-levels to all areas. This will result in dry weather for Sunday
night through Monday night. Low-level moisture surges northward
across all areas on Tuesday. Meanwhile, an active southwest flow
aloft continues bringing rain chances back to most areas for the
middle of the upcoming work week. Another Pacific front should move
through early Thursday, bringing a decrease in rain chances late in
the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              61  75  48  69  44 /  30  60  -   30   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  60  75  46  68  42 /  30  50  -   30  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  76  46  68  42 /  30  50  10  30  -
Burnet Muni Airport            61  73  41  70  40 /  50  60   0  20   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           58  75  45  75  44 /  30  -   -    0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        57  73  42  69  41 /  30  60  -   20   0
Hondo Muni Airport             64  79  46  73  42 /  40  40  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  76  45  67  42 /  30  50  10  30  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  75  49  65  45 /  30  60  20  60  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       66  77  48  70  44 /  30  50  10  30   0
Stinson Muni Airport           65  78  48  69  45 /  30  50  10  30   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...05



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