Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 121159
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
659 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SEEING PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE ADDED FOG
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VISIBILITY WILL GENERALLY BE THREE TO FIVE
MILES...BUT A FEW PLACES COULD BE LESS THAN A MILE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT THE I-35 SITES THROUGH 15Z.
THERE IS SOME LOCALLY DENSE GROUND FOG IN THE AREA...BUT NOT AT
THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR FROM 15Z THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY
AT THE I-35 SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF REPEAT GROUND FOG AND
POSSIBLY IFR CIGS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND RE-EVALUATE IN
LATER TAFS. KDRT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THERE...12G22KT FROM 15Z THROUGH 02Z SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE BIG BEND REGION UNDERCUTTING THE DOMINANT RIDGE. THE SURFACE
PATTERN HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND BEGIN A DRY PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. A DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BUILD AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN BEGINNING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THEY ARE STARTING TO SHOW A
WEAKER FEATURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THEY ALSO HAVE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE...BUT NOW ONLY BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH TEXAS. IT SHOULD STILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NORTH OF OUR CWA AND THIS WILL
MEAN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES. HAVE INTRODUCED 100
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN THE SAN ANTONIO AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS
SHOULD ONLY BE A ONE DAY EVENT AS CLOUDINESS AND CHANCE FOR RAIN
MOVE FARTHER SOUTH MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  74  98  75  99 /   0  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  70  97  72  98 /   0  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     94  71  95  72  97 /   0  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            94  73  96  74  97 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  75  97  76  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  74  98  75  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  71  96  72  97 /   0  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  71  95  72  97 /   0  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   95  74  95  75  96 /  -   -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  95  75  96 /   0  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           94  73  95  74  96 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




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