Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 300446
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1146 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH 17Z. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DAYTIME MIXING WILL PRODUCE WINDS OF AT LEAST
10G20KT FROM 17Z TO 02Z THURSDAY...THEN SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS AT THE
I-35 SITES THROUGH 09Z THURSDAY. WE INTRODUCED AN MVFR CIG AT 015
AGL AFTER 09Z THURSDAY FOR THE EXTENDED 30-HOUR TAFS AT KAUS AND
KSAT...BUT EXPECT THE SAME FOR KSSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
TO REMOVE CONVECTION.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED...SO HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF CONVECTION BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PASSED KAUS AND WILL PASS THROUGH
KSAT AND KSSF BETWEEN 0130Z AND 02Z. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
04015G25KT RIGHT AFTER PASSAGE...THEN SETTLING DOWN 06010KT OR SO
FOR A FEW HOURS. MORE TYPICAL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RE-
ESTABLISH BY 04-06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. DAYTIME HEATING ON
WEDNESDAY AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WINDS
TO AT LEAST 10G20KT AREA WIDE...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AT KAUS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS
LITTLE MOVEMENT POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEAVING OUTFLOWS
TO BE THE FOCAL POINTS FOR NEW CONVECTION. WHILE PW AT VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY POOLED AT AROUND 2 INCHES OVER OUR NE COUNTIES...THE
OUTFLOWS AND STABLE MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD HELP TO DISPERSE SOME OF
THE POOLED MOISTURE...SO WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
DEPICTS INCREASING STABILITY AND A WARMING TREND FOR MAX TEMPS
WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA IS SHOWN TO CARVE OUT INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW IN ITS WAKE OVER NW TX LEAVING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED NEW
CONVECTION TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TX TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...THE INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PUSH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX
TO PUT A DENT IN THE SUMMER HEAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY
MODEL CONSENSUS TO HOLD OFF MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR AN MCS
TO PULL THE WIND SHIFT SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GFS
MODEL HESITANT TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE INITIALLY AND THEN
SPREADING ENHANCED POPS OVER A BROAD TIME PERIOD LASTING INTO
MONDAY...WILL KEEP CONSERVATIVE ON POPS FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THE
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE ADAMANT IN SHOWING A MORE
STABILIZING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A BLEND WITH THE WETTER GFS WAS CHOSEN FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS USUALLY
GOOD FOR AT LEAST ONE SURPRISE ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  97  74  94  74 /  10  10  20  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  98  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  98  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  96  72  91  71 /  10  10  20  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 103  78  98  78 /  -   -   -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  73  92  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72 100  72  95  73 /  10  -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  97  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  97  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  98  76  94  76 /  10  -   10  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73 100  74  95  75 /  10  -   10  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




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