Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 170455
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 06Z TAFS/
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BOTH FROM ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. HEAVY RAINFALL
NEAR ABIA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS OR POSSIBLY
WORSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. MODEL PROJECTIONS
CONTINUE TO BE MORE AND MORE PESSEMISTIC FOR FOR THIS AREA
THURSDAY EVENING...SO WILL OPT FOR PREVAILING TSRA AND IFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR AS DIRE FOR SAT/SSF WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MORE INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS AND
STORM CHANCES. DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE RESERVED FOR DRT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AND NO MENTION OF TSRA IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
CHANCES COULD POTENTIALLY GO UP FOR DRT AND DOWN FOR AUS...BUT
WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE FINER MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWN TREND WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF GILLESPIE COUNTY.
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE ABIA VCNTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DECREASING...NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A MORE UNIFORM SELY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...AND THE CIRA SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS MORE
CONTINUOUS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ESCARPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
FORECASTS. LATER IN THE DAY...MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENTS ALONG I-35 SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE THE CHANCES AS PROB30
GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  40  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  30  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  30  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  40  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  30  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17






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