Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KEWX 270116
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
816 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.EVENING UPDATE...
Shower and thunderstorm coverage has waned considerably this
evening with only sparse locations with returns on radar. Hi-res
model suite continues to indicate a quiet night for South Central
Texas. Can`t rule out a potential isolated cell to develop
overnight so included iso mention in the wx grid for overnight in
the south. Looking at SPC mesoanalysis, at least some instability
still exists just south of the CWA border east of I-37. It
currently is the only area to still have lightning activity but
also looks like it will continue to wane over the next hour.

Thus, have trimmed back PoPs from the original forecast and
attempted to massage the hourly T/Td grids due to the precip
cooling effects from this afternoon. Will likely need to stay on
these edits each hour to capture the correct trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

AVIATION...
Patches of -RA along with ISOLD SHRA/TSRA are currently slowly
decreasing across South Central Texas. This trend is expected to
continue as the atmosphere stabilizes. Due to a moist airmass and
weak cyclonic flow, could see some SHRA/TSRA redevelopment toward
morning with scattered development during the day on Wednesday as
airmass destabilizes from solar heating. Surface boundaries from
earlier SHRA/TSRA will also force development. There is
uncertainty on locations of best upward forcing. For now, have
left precip mention out of TAFs. However, expect later updates to
mention based on radar and model trends. VFR skies are expected
this evening. Stratus with MVFR CIGS will develop overnight into
early morning and have mentioned 08Z-17Z in the TAFs. Patchy IFR
CIGS and BR with IFR/MVFR VSBYs are possible due to surface
moisture from recent rains. Chances are low at the TAF sites and
have left mention out for now. VFR skies return in the afternoon,
except brief IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are expected in SHRA/TSRA. S to
SE winds around 10 KTS or less will prevail. Wind gusts up to 40
KTS are possible in/near the stronger SHRA/TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
26/12Z upper air data shows a moist atmosphere in place with
precipitable water values near 1.9" and KDRT with near 2.1" at
KCRP. Given the well above normal moisture and daytime heating,
we expect another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening, especially along and south of the Highway 90 corridor.
Similar to yesterday, some of the stronger thunderstorms will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and wind gusts to 50
MPH. Some minor flooding may also develop given well above normal
moisture and slow moving storms. A few spots could pick up a quick
2-3 inches of rainfall, especially if several storms move over the
same region. Otherwise, rainfall amounts should average 1/4 to 3/4
of an inch for most locations.

On Wednesday, deep layer moisture persists over the region with
most areas expected to remain around 2". We`ll continue to see
some fairly broad cyclonic flow in the mid-levels and with daytime
heating, we expect another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Similar to
today, can`t rule out a some pockets of locally heavy rainfall
across the region and we will continue to mention this in the
hazardous weather outlook.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The atmosphere begins to dry out late this week (Friday and
Saturday) and we`ll begin to show a decrease in rain chances from
west to east across south central Texas. We`ll keep a 20-30%
chance for rain across all areas on Thursday, with chances then
limited to areas mainly east of I-35 on Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will also begin to increase, with near normal
readings expected Thursday and above normal for Friday and
Saturday.

The subtropical ridge axis will then gradually build into early
next week across all areas. While most areas will likely remain
dry with above normal temperatures, prefer to hang on to a low
chance for convection near the coastal plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  96  76  97  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  94  75  96  75 /  20  40  20  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  95  75  96  75 /  20  40  20  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  93  75  95  75 /  20  40  20  30  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  97  78  98  78 /  20  30  20  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  93  76  95  76 /  20  40  20  30  20
Hondo Muni Airport             75  93  75  96  74 /  20  40  20  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  93  75  96  75 /  20  40  20  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  93  77  96  76 /  20  50  20  30  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  93  77  95  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           76  95  77  98  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...TB3
Public Service/Data Collection...33



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.