Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 230018
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
618 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period as surface high
pressure dominates the weather pattern over the region. With the
increasing pressure, wind speeds are beginning to taper off and
should remain less than 10 knots through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
The chilly weather will continue in the wake of the
cold frontal passage yesterday. The surface ridge axis will be
overhead tonight leading to mainly clear skies and weak northerly
winds. That should set up fairly good radiational cooling with lows
dropping into the 30s most areas. There could be a few low spots
especially west in the Hill Country that see some min temps drop to
the freezing mark but don`t anticipate any freeze warnings as these
same areas saw freezes in late OCT and the freezing temps should be
confined to low spots.  Will likely issue a Special Weather
Statement to talk of the very cool temps expected overnight and the
possibility of isolated freezing temps. There are some high clouds
moving south but they appear to be fairly thin and should not have
much impact on the overnight temps.

A ridge of high pressure centered near Baja will bring us mid and
upper level NW flow for the next several days. This is typically a
very nice weather pattern for us this time of year.  That combined
with a weak pressure gradient at the surface should give us
wonderful weather for Thanksgiving. Highs in the 70s with lows
Thursday night a few degrees warmer than the previous night, mainly
in the 40s.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
This upper pattern with the upper ridge to the west over northern
Mexico and dry mid and upper NW flow over Texas will bring very
pleasant weather and temperatures through the weekend into early next
week. South winds will return by Friday helping to slowly bring back
some higher dewpoints and thus some warmer overnight lows. Could see
the return of some fog as the moisture returns. A weak disturbance
will come down the NW flow and push a weak backdoor cool front into
Texas on Saturday. Looks like we may get about 24hrs worth of a light
NE wind Saturday afternoon into Sunday but overall impact to the
forecast will be very small. Long range models start to shift the
upper ridge east of the area by late Monday and develop upper
troffing over the western U.S. Look for a cold front to bring changes
to Texas Tue-Wed with cooler temps and a chance for rain. Rain
chances late Tue into Wed will remain on the low side for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              38  70  45  78  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  34  69  41  77  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     36  71  43  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            35  69  42  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           39  71  45  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        35  70  43  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             35  74  41  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        35  70  42  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   35  67  41  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       40  72  45  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           39  72  44  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire
Synoptic/Grids...Williams
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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