Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 280525
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1125 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE I-35 TAF SITES FROM
THE SOUTH. AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS AT OR BELOW FREEZING
WILL SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE ONLY TAF SITE WHERE THIS SHOULD BE
PROBLEMATIC IS KAUS. KAUS HAS JUMPED BETWEEN 32 AND 33 DEGREES
AND WILL TEMPO -FZDZ FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IT SHOULD NOT
ACCOUNT TOO MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THE BOUNCING TEMPERATURE. THE
NEXT CONCERN IS THE IFR CIGS. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY LOW MVFR IFR AND
EXPECTING ALL SITES TO BE IFR WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
I-35 TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
KDRT MAY GO BRIEFLY MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER TOMORROW EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT INTO LIFR CATEGORIES.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE... /UPDATED TO INCLUDE UVALDE AND MEDINA COUNTY IN WSW/
WHILE LATE AFTERNOON PROJECTIONS INDICATED INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO REACH NEAR THE WET BULB OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES...EARLY EVENING
TRENDS SWITCHED TO SHOW CONTINUED DRYING AT THE SURFACE FROM
PERSISTENT NE WINDS. MODEL RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPICTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH MAINLY A TRACE TO 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
EXPECTED WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING. THE COLDER
TEMPERATURE TRENDS MEAN OVERNIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ARE NOT LIKELY OVER
THE WESTERN ESCARPMENT...AND THUS THE WSW PRODUCT IS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE MEDINA AND UVALDE COUNTIES. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINL OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
RESISTANCE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE NEXT ROW OF
COUNTIES EAST OF I-35...BUT THE FREEZE LINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF COMAL...HAYS...TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE... /REVISED TEMPERATURE TRENDS...CONTINUE WW ADVY/
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BETTER ALIGN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AS SOME OF THE FORECASTS MIN TEMPS
ARE OCCURRING EARLY. FREEZING WX GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG I-35 TO MATCH WHERE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOWS A
POTENTIAL TO DROP TEMPERATURES TO FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. FARTHER TO THE SW...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
APPROACHING ZERO...AND THE SOMEWHAT STEADY RATE OF DRIZZLE FALLING
INTO THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT. GRIDDED DATA SHOWS NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A RETREATING FREEZING PRECIPITATION LINE
TO REFLECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FORMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
BELOW FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AREAS
WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY. MINOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MAINLY ON LESS TRAVELED
ROADS...ELEVATED STRUCTURES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO MEDINA TO HELOTES TO
AUSTIN LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE WHICH IN TURN WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS RAIN BRINGS
DOWN THE WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS THE COLD DOME IS STUBBORN TO ERODE.
ALTHOUGH...SOME EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD DOME FINALLY LOOKS TO ERODE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
NAM/GEM MAINTAIN IT WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTH AND THEN BRINGS
IT BACK LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...FINALLY MOVING IT BACK
NORTH LATE MONDAY. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE NAM/GEM VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A BIT
COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUE THE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALL MODELS FINALLY LIFT
THE COLD AIR NORTH BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THIS FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FORCES
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO
SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS MENTION TO THE
FORECAST. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              35  31  46  43  66 /  50  60  60  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  36  32  47  43  66 /  40  50  60  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     37  32  47  45  68 /  50  60  60  40  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            31  27  41  40  62 /  50  60  60  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           38  35  49  45  70 /  20  30  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        34  29  44  41  63 /  50  60  60  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             37  33  47  45  69 /  50  60  60  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  32  47  44  66 /  50  60  60  40  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   42  37  54  49  71 /  30  30  60  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       37  33  47  45  68 /  50  60  60  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           37  34  47  46  69 /  50  60  60  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...EDWARDS...
GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






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