Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 020455
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS SE OF A KPEZ TO KHYI TO KGYB LINE WILL
SPREAD NW ACROSS REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. CIGS
MAY BECOME IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME. HOWEVER...ONLY MENTIONED AT KDRT
WHERE LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER. CIGS LIFT THURSDAY MORNING TO
VFR LATE MORNING WITH CLOUDS BECOMING FEW-SCT CUMULUS. ISOLD SHRA
MAY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE 20 PERCENT OR LESS
AND HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. EXPECT PASSAGE AT KDRT
AROUND 02/22Z AND I-35 TAF SITES BETWEEN 03/03Z-05Z. A LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY THEN
MOVE SE ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
DURING THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. HAVE TEMPOS OF TSRA AND MVFR
CIGS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS AT I-35 TAF SITES FROM
03/02Z-07Z. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASE TO 10 TO
17 KTS THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO N TO NW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OUT WEST AND REST OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BROWNSVILLE TX/

AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT SAT...SSF...AND
DRT AROUND 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
MENTION VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 22Z WITH PREVAILING TSRA/MVFR
CONDITIONS AT AUS AND SAT BY 02Z FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE BACK THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OUT WEST
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
AREA RADARS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OUT WEST A FEW STORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO
MOUNTAINS. NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR AREA
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET WITH 30 TO 40 KNOTS
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER
A CLOUDY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN-SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281...CLOUDS WILL SCATTER/DISSIPATE MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE ON
THURSDAY BEFORE BIG CHANGES COME AROUND DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS ESTIMATED TO BE THURSDAY EVENING FROM
ABOUT 7 PM TO MIDNIGHT FRIDAY (HILL COUNTRY AND LOCATIONS ALONG
INTERSTATE 35). AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
MOVING SOUTH OVER AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 90 AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF A HARPER TO AUSTIN TO LEXINGTON LINE.
THE MAIN HAZARD TREAT WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WINDS. CAN`T
RULE OUT SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES TO THE SOUTH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INCREASES DUE
TO DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND BETTER INSTABILITY. STORM
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT SHOULD RANGE FROM ONE
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH UP TO TWO INCHES OVER SOME SPOTS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BY FRIDAY MORNING (7AM)...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THOSE AREAS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXPECT BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES AS A MODERATE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES
OVER NORTH TEXAS. NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WITH A COOLER AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
PROMOTE PLEASANT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN MORNING CLOUDS/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOONS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMING TREND FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  94  65  85  56 /  10  20  60  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  95  65  85  53 /  10  20  70  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  96  67  84  54 /  10  20  70  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  92  62  83  53 /  10  30  40  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  94  67  87  59 /  -   10  10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  93  63  83  54 /  10  20  50  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  95  65  86  53 /  10  20  50  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  94  66  84  54 /  10  20  70  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  93  67  83  56 /  10  20  60  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  95  69  85  55 /  10  20  70  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  96  69  86  56 /  10  20  70  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26




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