Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 020831
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
331 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH CENTERED OVER UTAH
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER TEXAS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH
PUSHING UP FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH
COVERED THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM 24
HOURS AGO. THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND THE TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL
ATTEMPT TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE RIDGE WILL WIN OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST...THE WILDCARD IN THIS SCENARIO IS THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW CONVECTION
TO FORM OVER THE SOUTH TODAY...SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DOWN THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH BACK THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GFS DRIER. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT AS
DRIER IS THE NEW TREND...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SOME POPS FOR NOW.
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOLIDLY OVER TEXAS AND BEGIN A
DRY FORECAST THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  74  91  74  90 /  10  -   10  -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  74  91  74  91 /  10  -   10  -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  91  74  90 /  10  -   10  -   30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  73  90  73  90 /  -   -   10  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  74  93  75  94 /  10  -   10   0  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  74  91  74  90 /  -   -   10  -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  73  91  74  91 /  20  10  -   -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  74  91  74  90 /  10  -   10  -   30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  75  92  75  90 /  -   -   10  -   30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  74  91  75  90 /  10  10  -   -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  74  91  75  91 /  20  10  10  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05


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