Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 260959
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
359 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Early morning surface observations show light and variable winds in
place across most areas. The exception being out west along the Rio
Grande and southern Edwards Plateau where south to southeasterly
winds are in the 5 to 15 mph range. Just above the surface, area 88-D
VAD wind profilers show southeast to southerly flow in the lowest 3k
feet AGL. This southerly flow has brought an increase in moisture
with the 11-3.9 satellite imagery showing low clouds developing from
the Rio Grande eastward into the western Hill Country. Low clouds
will continue to develop and spread northward across south central
Texas today as southerly flow strengthens in advance of an upper
level moving into southern California. We should see enough moisture
to result in isolated to scattered showers today and will mention a
20-40% chance of rain for most areas. For this evening and overnight,
moisture levels continue to increase as the above mentioned shortwave
trough moves across New Mexico into northern Texas. For this evening,
we should see enough lift and cooling in the mid-levels to promote
thunderstorm development. This along with a modest low-level jet
around 30kts should allow for scattered convection east of Highway
83, mainly this evening. While we can`t completely rule out a strong
storm or two, it appears the stronger lift will remain north of our
region. If a strong storm managed to develop, hail would be the main
severe weather concern. After midnight, most of the lift will move
east of our region and with surface winds remaining light, we should
see fog development. On Monday, southwesterly flow aloft remains
intact and with daytime heating, we will keep a low chance for
convection along and east of Highway 281.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Southwesterly flow aloft begins to strengthen considerably on Tuesday
as a deep upper trough moves into the Rockies. With high temperatures
warming into the lower 80s to near 90, we will continue to mention a
low chance for convection along and east of Highway 281. As the upper
trough axis passes east of the region on Wednesday, a Pacific cold
front will quickly move across south central Texas by Noon.
Temperatures will drop behind the front, but with plenty of sunshine
and downsloping winds, we still expect above normal highs in the 70s
to near 80. Cooler air builds behind the front to round out the work
week and we expect temperatures to drop closer to climatological
normals for late February. Southerly flow returns in the low-levels
on Friday and with another upper trough approaching from the west,
rain chances will return to most areas on Saturday. The next upper
trough will be cut off from the westerlies and will move much slower
than the midweek system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              66  61  79  63  83 /  40  40  20  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  67  61  80  63  83 /  40  40  20  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  62  79  63  84 /  40  30  20  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            64  56  80  60  81 /  40  40  20  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  54  84  57  87 /  10  -    0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  60  78  62  80 /  40  40  20  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             71  58  83  61  86 /  20  10  10  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  62  80  63  84 /  40  30  20  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  64  80  66  84 /  40  30  20  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  61  81  64  85 /  30  30  20  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           71  62  83  64  85 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...17
Synoptic/Grids...24


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