Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 080000
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...00Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
CIRRUS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING TAF SITES 05Z-08Z. A NORTH
WIND AROUND 15 KTS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT SAT/AUS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVERNIGHT 20-25 KTS. SLIGHTLY WEAKER WIND
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AT DRT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF NORTH
WIND AT SAT/AUS 15Z-20Z BEFORE WEAKENING MON AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE WILL BE A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SPEEDS TO 15G30KT. THE WIND SHIFT
WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE INCREASE IN
SPEED FROM 16Z-21Z. THE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR WILL PRODUCE
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. WE
DID PLACE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NEAR THE COAST
FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BREAKDOWN AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN MINOR RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE RESULT OF THAT WILL BE A WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
FROM 65-70F ON TUESDAY TO 75-80F AT MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME WEAK FRONTS MAY BRING TEMPORARY WIND SHIFTS
TO TEMPER THE WARMING...BUT NO CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH A STRONGER FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LLANO TO
SAN MARCOS TO HALLETTSVILLE... BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              41  61  38  66  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  38  61  33  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     40  63  36  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            37  58  34  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           41  64  37  71  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        38  60  34  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             38  65  34  69  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        39  62  35  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   40  61  36  63  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       41  63  37  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           41  65  38  68  41 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH


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