Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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539
FXUS62 KFFC 211918
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
318 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
High pressure over the Middle Atlantic will continue to shift
offshore the eastern US through Sunday. The forecast is expected to
remain dry through tonight, but precipitation chances will increase
later Sunday into Sunday night.

Quite a bit of cirrus has overspread the area today and have
adjusted the cloud cover upwards in the grids. Along with the bkn
high clouds, low level cloudiness will increase towards sunrise. The
timing of the bkn/ovc cloud cover could impact min temps and they
might have to be bumped upwards.

Precipitation chances will begin to increase, especially from the
west, Sunday night as a cold front approaches from the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Instability doesn`t look all that
impressive Sunday night, but a few thunderstorms are possible along
with some locally heavy rain.

NListemaa

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Mainly only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.
The overall forecast speed of the next system seems to have
increased. A wet Monday is still expected with a few strong
thunderstorms still possible. Will continue to monitor the
potential for any severe storms and flash flooding.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Still some variation concerning timing/path/strength of the system
sweeping through the region at the beginning of the period. However,
Early Monday through Monday evening is still looking like the most
likely timeframe across the forecast area. Models continue to show
minimal instability, but strong dynamics and good shear continue to
point to at least a slight chance for some strong to severe
convection during the day Monday. System moves east quickly overnight
into Tuesday morning, but secondary strong short wave and marginal
residual moisture keeps a slight chance for a few showers across the
far north through the day Wednesday. Good shot of cold air behind
this system brings well below normal temperatures into the state
Tuesday/Wednesday, but models are now showing a pretty quick recovery
by the end of the work week. Another quick moving system sweeps in
for the weekend. Moisture return is not progged to be spectacular,
but should be sufficient for at least a low chance of showers moving
into the northwest by Friday night, spreading across the forecast
area Saturday.

20

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A period of heavy rainfall potential can be expected starting late
Sunday night into Monday night and affecting north GA the most. Storm
total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches can be expected for much of the area
with the greatest amounts in the n GA mountains and the least amounts
across the southern portions of central GA. Minor flooding will be
possible and will be highly dependent on the overall speed of the
system. Conditions will continued to be evaluated for flash flood
potential across portions of n GA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Quite a bit of cirrus around this afternoon and expect that to
continue well into the overnight hours. Do expect some bkn mvfr
cigs to set up around 10Z Sun. There is some potential for bkn015,
but not confident to go that low for now and will keep it bkn025.
Cigs should lift to around 035-040 tomorrow afternoon, but skies
will remain cloudy. East winds expected through the period. Precip
not expected through tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence cigs...otherwise high confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          54  77  64  71 /   0  10  70 100
Atlanta         59  77  66  70 /   0  10  70 100
Blairsville     50  71  60  66 /   0  10  70 100
Cartersville    56  76  65  70 /   0   5  80 100
Columbus        62  83  69  74 /   0  10  80 100
Gainesville     55  73  63  69 /   0  10  70 100
Macon           58  82  68  74 /   0  20  70  90
Rome            55  77  65  70 /   0   5  80 100
Peachtree City  55  78  66  71 /   0  10  70 100
Vidalia         64  82  70  79 /   5  30  50  90

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NListemaa



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