Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 030616
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
216 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

.UPDATE...

AFTER AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION OVER THE ATLANTA METRO...FOCUS
QUICKLY SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE MIDDLE GEORGIA SAW
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SENT AN
OUTFLOW NORTHWARD BACK TO THE METRO BUT NEWLY GENERATED ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY. HRRR DOES INDICATE NW ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD AND INTERACT WITH AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BUT
REMAINS UNCLEAR IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...HAVE PLAYED IT AS LOW
END CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT NORTHWEST
WHERE I HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY HIGHER GIVEN ADDED DYNAMICS IN PLAY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLOW PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY AND
THIS MAY HELP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. AFTER THIS THOUGH...NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURE AT
THE UPPER LEVELS TO KEY IN ON IN THE SHORT TERM. BASICALLY WILL
CONTINUE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH MUCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEAR TO BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FAIRLY BIG DISCREPANCIES IN THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW
WITH THE MAV BEING WARMER THAN THE MET. AT ATL...THERE IS A SIX
DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS IS CAUSED BY MORE CLOUD COVERAGE DEPICTED BY
THE NAM. THINK THE NAM IS OVERDOING CLOUD COVERAGE THOUGH SO STARTED
WITH A BLEND...AND THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE FOR HIGH
TEMPS TOMORROW. ONCE AGAIN BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL.

11

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT LONG TERM. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 325 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

WEAK TROUGH STILL IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY. ALOFT...A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY AND SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT MAY SERVE TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A WEAK FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEKEND. WITH
SUCCESSIVE RUNS...THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF
THE BOUNDARY. CURRENTLY...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GA
LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL GA BY LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY TUESDAY.

TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH CHANCE FOR MORNING MVFR VSBYS AT SOME
SITES. CIGS GENERALLY NEAR 12 KFT THIS MORNING WITH SOME SCT NEAR
5 KFT. AFTERNOON CU FIELD LIKELY IN 4-5 KFT RANGE ALONG WITH
DECENT TSRA POTENTIAL AFTER 18-19Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB
TO CALM INITIALLY BECOMING NW TO W UNDER 7 KTS TODAY. VRB GUSTS
AND REDUCED VSBYS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM IN PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          95  71  92  69 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         90  73  88  70 /  40  40  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     86  66  84  63 /  40  30  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    91  69  90  68 /  30  30  40  30
COLUMBUS        94  74  90  71 /  40  40  30  20
GAINESVILLE     90  72  89  69 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           94  71  92  69 /  40  40  30  20
ROME            92  69  91  68 /  30  30  40  30
PEACHTREE CITY  90  70  88  68 /  40  40  40  30
VIDALIA         95  73  92  71 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11/DEESE
LONG TERM...NLISTEMAA/17
AVIATION...BAKER





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