Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KFFC 260145
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
945 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH HAD KEPT OUR AREA
DRY THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY MOVED FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
ALLOW FOR SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING FROM 1.25 INCHES THIS
MORNING TO 1.7 INCHES THIS EVENING WAS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
INITIATE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST AND TAKE BULK OF ACTIVITY
INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY HAS NOT BEEN AS
IMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE EXPECT JUST GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MAINLY SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CURRENT GRID SET HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND ONLY LIMITED CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

RW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIP...CURRENTLY OVER AL WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THIS WAVE LIFTS
INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT THE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH. HOWEVER
THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS WEST AND
NORTH GA...WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE STRONGER
STORMS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

17

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...KEEPING CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE DIURNAL TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO DAY SEVEN
WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
IS INCLUDED BELOW.

31

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 347 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/
MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START THE LONG TERM.
SIGNIFICANT DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE POTENTIAL
WILL AFFECT N AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GA...WITH CONTINUED RATHER HIGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL HAVE SOME DIURNAL TENDENCY BUT NOT EXCLUSIVELY. DUE TO
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC...THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER NORTH AND WEST
GA.

A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES SATURDAY AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MUCH MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN UPPER PATTERNS ARE DIFFERENT ON SUNDAY WITH LESS
INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE ALOFT FROM THE EUROPEAN.

RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF N GA
INTO THURSDAY. WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AND 2 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS.

BDL

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
TSRA CONTINUES TO IMPACT MOST OF THE AIRFIELDS IN THE FORECAST
AREA INCLUDING ATLANTA HARTSFIELD. FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME
MOVEMENT TO THE BAND AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMOVE THE TEMPO BY
02Z. ONCE ACTIVITY EXITS...PLENTY OF RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN CIGS
QUICKLY LOWERING WITH IFR NOW LIKELY FOR ALL SITES. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUE ONCE AGAIN AND ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IN THE
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  83  66  82 /  60  70  80  70
ATLANTA         68  82  67  80 /  60  80  80  70
BLAIRSVILLE     65  76  64  75 /  60  70  80  70
CARTERSVILLE    67  81  66  80 /  60  80  80  70
COLUMBUS        70  85  69  83 /  50  70  60  70
GAINESVILLE     66  79  65  78 /  60  70  80  70
MACON           68  86  68  85 /  50  50  50  70
ROME            67  80  66  80 /  60  80  80  70
PEACHTREE CITY  68  81  67  81 /  60  70  80  70
VIDALIA         71  88  70  87 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DEESE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.