Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 281928
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
228 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM STILL DOMINATED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES EAST
AND CONTINUES TO DAMP. GULF MOISTURE STILL BEING PUMPED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES...12Z KFFC SOUNDING WAS
1.6 INCHES WHICH IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NOT FAR FROM THE
RECORD VALUES. SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH INTO NORTH
GEORGIA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DAMP AND PUSH EAST
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH MOST OF THE
RAIN OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE FRONT WILL
ELONGATE AND STALL ALLOWING SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK EDGE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

STILL PRETTY MUCH ZERO MUCAPE TO DEAL WITH AND WHILE WE CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER HERE AND THERE
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN...NOT ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO ADD
THUNDER AT THIS TIME. FORECAST QPF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS
PRETTY SMALL...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH ADDITIONAL
RAIN EXPECTED. THIS IS DESPITE THE HIGH PW VALUES AND VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES. MIGHT BE HARD-PRESSED TO GET ANY
FLOODING AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP BUT WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE-AVERAGE ESPECIALLY FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHERN ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WENT WITH
A GENERAL BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE WILL START NOTICING THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT MORE DRASTICALLY IN THE EXTENDED.

TDP

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS
SHAPING UP TO BE AN INTERESTING ONE FROM THE OUTSET. WE HAD BEEN
ADVERTISING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING FOR SOME OF THE VALLEYS AS
THE PRECIP MOVES IN AND NOW THE NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN EVEN LOWER
WITH SOME TEMPS AROUND FREEZING EVEN ALONG OUR WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. TAKING A LOOK AT THE MODEL COBB OUTPUT HOWEVER FOR
BRASSTOWN BALD...IT IS EVIDENT THAT THE LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
03Z...JUST AHEAD OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO THE MID 30S BY 12Z. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME COLD AIR LOCKED
INTO THE VALLEYS SO WOULD LIKE MID SHIFT TO GET A LOOK AT ANOTHER
RUN BEFORE PULLING FROZEN PRECIP ON THIS CYCLE.

SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY
AS CAPE BUILDS TO A HIGH OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST SHEAR REMAINING TO THE NORTH. DO
HAVE 30 TO 35 KTS AT 850MB ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THERE IS
ACTUALLY AN EARLIER LOWER JET AROUND 925MB THAT PUSHES A 40 KT MAX
ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO SO WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE HWO.

TIMING ISSUES REMAIN WITH THE 12Z GFS MAINTAINING A SLOWER
SOLUTION IN CLEARING THINGS OUT. HAVE YET TO SEE THE ECMWF FOR THE
12Z RUN BUT WILL LIKELY JUST KEEP THE LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THERE
AS A HEDGE FOR THE EXTENDED UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT IS REACHED. BASED
ON THE LAST WEEK...AM LEANING TOWARD A LESS PROGRESSIVE FRONT AND
A WETTER PATTERN TO CONTINUE.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR AT TAF TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MCN. SEE LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE BRIEF LIFTING WITH ONSET
OF SECOND ROUND OF -RA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT OVERALL IFR
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE...AND CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CIGS. MAY SEE
SOME IMPROVING TO MVFR TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AT ATL. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR VSBY AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF FG. SW WINDS
TO START THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NW TOWARD THE END...
GENERALLY UNDER 5KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WINDS.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  59  45  58 /  90  60  20  10
ATLANTA         51  60  46  57 / 100  40  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     46  56  42  49 / 100  50  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    46  56  42  51 / 100  40  10   5
COLUMBUS        55  63  48  62 /  80  60  20   5
GAINESVILLE     49  57  45  54 / 100  40  20  10
MACON           56  64  47  63 /  80  80  30   5
ROME            46  55  41  51 / 100  30  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  51  61  43  59 /  90  40  10   5
VIDALIA         60  67  53  64 /  40  70  60  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...DE KALB...
DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...
GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...
MERIWETHER...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...TDP


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