Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 021459
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1059 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
RATHER SOLID STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN A BIT MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND INCREASED POPS NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SOLAR SHELTERING WHERE ENHANCED BAROCLINITY SHOULD BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS INITIATING ALONG A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE HI- RES GUIDANCE CONCURS WITH THIS SOLUTION AS WELL...THEN
POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTHWARD TRENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. STILL KEPT OVERALL POPS MAINLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 423 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
THE STATIONARY FRONT IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. BETTER MOISTURE IS
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA TODAY AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. ALL THE HI RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG BUT NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS TODAY IS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS. HI-RES MODELS ARE HINTING  AT SOME ACTIVITY TRYING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THAT AREA BUT WITH THAT AREA FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
STATIONARY FRONT...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A 10 PERCENT POP ACROSS THE NE
MOUNTAINS.

WITH THE BOUNDARY PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY...THE BETTER
MOISTURE ALSO PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DAY SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO A SMALL PORTION OF THE SE PART OF THE CWA AND EVEN THOSE
POPS COULD BE OVERDONE.

TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR A BLEND. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA IT WILL AT LEAST BE A LITTLE MORE PLEASANT FOR
THE SUMMERTIME.

11

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 423 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...WITH GFS/ECMWF
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO TAP INTO.
THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
DURING THIS MIDWEEK PERIOD WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BETTER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE BY THURSDAY
AND HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODELS SHOW STRONGER FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. A BLEND OF
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN ORDER.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
AREA OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
THIS HAS MOVED INTO THE MCN AREA. WITH SUNRISE...THE AREA SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE LOW CLOUDS COULD
MAKE IT INTO CSG THIS MORNING...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT ALSO
EXPECTED...THINK IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AS SCT THAN BKN. WINDS AT
ATL HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING SLIGHTLY AROUND NORTH THIS MORNING BUT
EXPECT TO SEE MORE OF A TREND TO THE NNE FOR THE MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. MEDIUM ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          95  69  97  71 /   5   5   5   5
ATLANTA         93  71  94  73 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     88  58  90  61 /   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    94  65  94  69 /   5   5   5   0
COLUMBUS        95  73  97  72 /  20  10  10   5
GAINESVILLE     91  70  94  72 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           94  70  97  70 /  20  10  10   5
ROME            95  64  95  68 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  94  66  94  68 /  10   5   5   5
VIDALIA         91  74  96  74 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...11


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