Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 221904
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
304 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014



.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AT AFD TIME...AND CAN BE
SEEN FAIRLY WELL ON RADAR WITH THE CHANGE IN DENSITY OF THE AIRMASS.
QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST. CAPE VALUES ARE
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OF THE STORMS CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED. VERY STRONG AND
SHARP SHORTWAVE WITH IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX DIGGING AND SWINGING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH 500MB TEMPS PRETTY COOL
/-14C/ SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND OF COURSE POSSIBILITY
OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MIDLEVEL LOW IS PROGGED
TO CUT OFF OVERNIGHT OVER THE CAROLINAS WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THOSE EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT...SO
HAVE A SLOW IMPROVING TREND OVERNIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

OTHERWISE A NICE AND MUCH COOLER NIGHT IN STORE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DEEP-LAYER CAA IN PLACE AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM. CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING FOR LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS AND LOW
POPS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY UPPER 70S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTH TOMORROW AND MOST EVERYWHERE IN THE
50S TOMORROW NIGHT EXCEPT AGAIN EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.

TDP


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN BEGIN SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WILL HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING NORTHWARD BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...HELPING
TO INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE THE WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE GFS REMAINING DRY THE LONGEST.
TYPICALLY...MODELS ARE TOO SLOW WITH PRODUCING PRECIP WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO WILL TREND TOWARDS THE MODELS WITH THE HIGHER
POPS.


NLISTEMAA


&&



AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LINE OF TSRA JUST SOUTH OF MCN/CSG...WITH TEMPO TSRA CONTINUING AT
MCN AND -SHRA FOR CSG. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
TO NE...CURRENT TIMING IS JUST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW-END
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5KT
OVERNIGHT. NE TO E WINDS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW-END GUSTS ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE FEW-SCT LOW VFR CU TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFT.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  78  54  75 /   5   0   0   5
ATLANTA         57  78  55  76 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     49  75  49  75 /   5   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        60  81  59  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     56  77  54  74 /   5   0   0   5
MACON           60  80  56  77 /  30   5   0  20
ROME            51  79  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  53  78  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         65  80  61  79 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...TDP





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