Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 200822
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
322 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Active pattern returns with a warm front crossing overnight
into Friday, followed by a stronger system early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Friday...

Models in good agreement on a strong Pacific upper trough
slamming into the western U.S. today. This will, in turn, cause
the central Plains upper low to open up and lift rapidly
northeast across the Ohio Valley today. It will move through our
region as a negatively tilted upper trough and surface warm
front. However, this system will be weakening overall as more
energy is used to flatten the strong eastern U.S. upper ridge in
place. While dynamics and moisture will certainly be enough to
support a band of rain showers with the warm front, the QPF for
us will be less compared to what has fallen to our west
earlier. This will be due to both the best QPF lifting up thru
Ohio and the speed of the system. We look for less than a half
inch of rain in general before the rain ends later this morning
from southwest to northeast. Thus, no water problems are
expected at this time from this system. Behind the warm front
will be a surge of warm air despite a lot of clouds, with highs
this afternoon into the 60s. While we cannot rule out a stray
shower this afternoon in the warm sector, it will mostly be just
dry and warm. Tonight will be dry and quite mild in the warm
sector with lows again well above normal.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Friday...

5h ridge axis shifts east of the forecast area on Saturday with
slight drying trend to start the period. Then flow trajectories
shift more toward the southwest as another warm front surges
north with over running precipitation. Atmospheric dynamics
weak, and will carry general chance pops and lighter qpf amounts
into saturday night.

Longwave trough axis then starts a trend to shift eastward late in
the period, perpetuated by a decent piece of energy working along
the southern periphery across the Tennessee Valley. Models tend to
keep best dynamics and moisture across southern half of our forecast
area with sfc low passing across NC.

Temps will remain well above normal through the period, with all
precipitation falling as rain through Sunday night.  There even be a
few lighting strokes Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 AM Friday...

Surface low tracks across to our south and then rides northward up
the East Coast with Mid Atlantic region remaining in a warm airmass.
Late in the period we see further indication that a change in
the longwave pattern is afoot, with cooler airmass working its
way into the upper midwest. By Thursday, we should see
temperatures return to more seasonal values. Noted some
variation with model solutions regarding the extended period.
Thus, used a general model blend throughout the period with a
few minor tweaks to pop and temperature values.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z Friday thru 06Z Saturday...

As of 1245 AM Friday...

A warm front will push northward across the area overnight into
Friday morning. This will provide ceilings lowering into the
MVFR range with some rain as well ahead of the front. Some
brief IFR conditions are also possible in the heavier rain,
especially Ohio River and west including HTS and PKB, and on
some of the east facing slopes of the northern WV mountains.
The front will push north of the area Friday morning, allowing
VFR ceilings to return in the warm sector Friday afternoon,
starting first in the southwest. However, some showers can not
be ruled in the warm sector Friday afternoon, especially north.
Light easterly winds overnight, becoming southerly 5-12 KTS in
the warm sector Friday.

After 00Z Sunday, look for some clearing. If winds decouple
enough and early, there may be some river valley IFR fog after
06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of lowering ceilings and rain
restrictions could vary later overnight and Friday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 01/20/17
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    L

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR will be possible again Sunday through Monday with another
system.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV



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