Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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430
FXUS61 KRLX 251845
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
245 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through Wednesday. A Cold front may produce some
storms late in the work week. High pressure builds back in for
the weekend with improving weather expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Tuesday...

High pressure will be quick to depart to the northeast, putting
the CWA back into return flow and a quick increase in
temperatures as low level warm air and moisture advection
commences once again. Expecting river valley fog development
tonight before the dewpoints increase in good radiational
cooling conditions. Overall, no major changes to the dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

Cooler and drier high pressure will be in control on Wednesday
before moving east Wednesday night and Thursday. As it does, SW
flow will increase, as will the head and humidity. Low pressure
approaches with its trailing cold front Thursday night into
Friday.  Scattered showers and storms will increase Thursday
well ahead of the front, especially over southeast Ohio and
northern West Virginia. Showers and storms will become more
widespread Thursday night and Friday morning as the cold front
slides southeast through the area. Behind the front, an
unusually cooler and drier Canadian airmass moves in during
Friday with showers and storms ending from northwest to
southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Long range models in good agreement with cooler and drier high
pressure building into the region Friday night through this
weekend. Temperatures should moderate each day under abundant
sunshine. Drier air with this high pressure will keep humidity
levels tolerable.  By Monday, the high shifts east with the
heat and humidity beginning to increase.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 PM Tuesday...

Expect the MVFR ceilings in the northern terminals to
eventually lift this afternoon and become a SCT VFR cumulus
deck, with all other terminals VFR through early tonight.

Radiation fog to commence after 05Z tonight, and all sites
expected to reach LIFR conditions with the exception of BKW.
Ceilings lift after 12Z Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog tonight could vary by an hour
or two.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...

Brief periods of IFR conditions long thunderstorms likely Thursday
into Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/99
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26



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