Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 281818
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
218 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary frontal boundary, diurnal heating, high moisture and a
mid level short pose a threat for flash flooding through tonight.
Upper trough with several embedded shortwaves to keep unsettled
weather over weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 am update. Adjusted POPs according to current rain complex on
radar. Watching for thunderstorm development ahead of the system
as heating of the day takes over this afternoon.

Previous discussion...
It will continue to be warm and muggy overnight with the high
dewpoints and increasing clouds.

An old stationary front remains stuck nearby weakening as we
speak. The GFS h500 charts show a short wave will ride the
westerlies affecting our area through tonight. Clusters of showers
and storms will produce heavy rain capable to produce flash
flooding. A Flash Flood Watch continues in effect until 12Z
Friday.

The weather looks like all the previous days with a stationary
boundary, high sfc based CAPE and precipitable water around 2
inches. The NAM is showing an area of deep layered shear of 50
knots at Randolph county, spreading southwest. An isolated severe
storms can not be ruled out with storms with equilibrium levels of
42 Kft.

Any early morning fog should dissipate by 13Z lifting in low
stratus by 14-15Z.

Used National Blend of Models guidance for temperatures through
the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough over area over the weekend...with several embedded
waves...helping to trigger showers and thunderstorms. Still the
possibility of brief heavy downpours over the weekend with high
moisture content airmass in place...but good news is coverage
shouldnt be overly widespread. Regardless...storms...particularly on
Sunday will be rather slow moving...so isolated water issues cant be
completely ruled out. Warmed temperatures slightly on Sunday from
previous forecast...but overall...cooler temperatures this weekend
until warming trend next week as heights build.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Using a combination of WPC and CONSENSus models...indicated building
heights across the region allowing for hot and humid temperatures.
Went with diurnal showers and storms through the term...especially
in the mountains.  Ridge will diminish toward end of term as a front
approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z Thursday thru 18Z Friday...
Upper level low crosses the area tonight. A widespread area of
moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms at 18z west of crw-ckb
line will slowly shift eastward with the upper system.
The organized area of precipitation will mostly end west of the
Ohio river around 03z...west of a crw-ckb line around 06z...and
exit the mountains around 10z. Thereafter...a lingering shower is
possible thru the end of the period..

For this afternoon...MVFR/locally IFR in showers and
thunderstorms. After 00z...as the rains mostly end from west to
east...look for IFR/LIFR ceilings and vsby in fog to develop
after 05Z...affecting the major terminal sites by 07Z.

After 14z...improving to MVFR ceilings with a shower still possible.

Winds will continue to be light westerly this afternoon and again
during Thursday afternoon...nearly calm tonight.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of main area of showers and
thunderstorms as it moves eastward across the area may vary by a
couple of hours. While IFR/LIFR stratus has medium to high confidence
tonight...fog potential is less certain.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms later Friday night
and Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for WVZ005>009-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ083-085>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV


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