Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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973
FXUS61 KRLX 241042
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
642 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through early next week with dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Cold front Wednesday
night/Thursday. Secondary cold front early weekend time frame.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...

Per current trend, updated for less fog and quicker dissipation
this morning.

As of 205 AM Sunday...

And the beat goes on with high pressure at the surface and aloft
in firm control. With drier air in place, dense river valley
fog not as widespread this morning. After morning fog, wall to
wall sunshine is expected. With another day of sunshine, drier
air and good mixing, have increased high temperatures a degree
or two this afternoon. Highs will likely reach 90 degrees in
more areas this afternoon than yesterday. Under clear skies and
with very light winds at best Sunday tonight, some more river
valley fog can be expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

No changes to the synoptic setup through the middle of next
week. Upper ridging over the middle Ohio Valley into the
northeast drives the mainly clear conditions with above normal
temperatures. Maria will continue its slow trek northward off
the Outer Banks of North Carolina, potentially slinging high
level clouds into the mountains. No significant POPs expected in
the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

Cold front pushes into the area in response to an upper level
trough digging into the northern Great Lakes. Runs of the long
term models returns lower POPs upon passage, with a mainly dry
frontal passage scenario at this point in the forecast. A
secondary closed low aloft digs southeastward into the lakes
and reinforces the cooler airmass for the weekend with another
cold front and resultant 850mb temperatures down in the lower
single digits.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z Sunday thru 12Z Monday...
As of 630 AM Sunday...

High pressure continues. Per current trend, will have IFR river
valley fog dissipating 12-13Z. Otherwise, VFR with just some
thin cirrus and light easterly winds today. IFR river valley
fog Sunday night may be a bit more widespread and earlier, but
still after 06Z, as models increase low level moisture again.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium on timing onset of dense fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing may vary from forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV



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