Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 280757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW


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