Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 022327
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
727 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY
AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE
FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN EVENING UPDATE...INCREASED WINDS IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AFTER 15Z MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BY 16Z MONDAY THE RAP MODEL HAS 20 KNOT FLOW AT 925 MB.

STILL LIKE THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO THE
MID OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MORNING...SO NO CHANGES THERE.

FOR THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION...WAS A BIT FASTER INCREASING POPS
EAST IN THE 22Z MONDAY TO 02Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME FROM THE MID OHIO
VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL WV. CELLS WILL BE MOVING AT AROUND 35
KNOTS. HOW QUCIKLY CONVECTION SINKS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA..SAY HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH...REMAINS DIFFICULT TO FIGURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TODAY...WITH MODELS
HOLDING ON THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF
WEST VIRGINIA...AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE WEST. WITH THE
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE INCREASE...FELT COMFORTABLE WITH HIGH
CHANCE AND LOW END LIKELY POPS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED CONTINUES TO PLAY ON THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF TO THE
WEST AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WARRANTING HIGH END
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON THE FRONT END OF THE LONG TERM. THIS LOW
DEPARTS TO THE EAST BY 18Z FRIDAY AND WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
CHANCES WITH IT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW AND
COLD FRONT DRYING IT OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASING ONLY POSSIBLE THICK FOG
FIGURED WOULD BE IN EXTREME SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SUCH AS
PINEVILLE AIRPORT. HAVE SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AROUND ELKINS DURING
THE 08Z TO 11Z TIME FRAME.

OTHERWISE HAVE 5 TO 10 THSD FT CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE OHIO
VALLEY 08Z TO 12Z WITH POSSIBLE SHOWER 11Z TO 15Z.

BASING FORECAST ON FRONT NOT REACHING TOWARD MID OHIO VALLEY AND
PKB VCNTY UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
SEEM TO BE IN THE KUNI TO KPKB TO KCKB CORRIDOR AFTER 22Z.

PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST AROUND 35 TO 40
KNOTS...BUT TIMING HOW QUICKLY CONVECTION SINKS INTO HTS-CRW ON
SOUTH IS DIFFICULT. TRIED TO DELAY MAIN CHANCES JUST AFTER THIS
TAF PERIODS DURING TUESDAY EVENING FOR HTS-CRW-BKW.

HAVE CEILINGS NEAR 3 THSD FT AND VSBY BRIEFLY AOB 3 MILES IN LATE
DAY AND EVENING CONVECTION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...BRIEF IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT 00Z TO
06Z TUESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY 06Z TO 12Z
TUESDAY. IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KTB



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