Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 100743
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
243 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Remaining cold today. A low pressure system crosses Sunday night
and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1235 AM Saturday...

Still some flurries lingering...mainly along and east of I-79. But
clouds are beginning to break up west of the Ohio River. Blended
WRFNMM into previous POPs, with little resulting change. Snow
showers and flurries will gradually taper off through this morning.
Temperatures today will struggle to get above freezing for most,
but there should be some sunshine across the southern half of the
forecast area to help ease the chill some.

Cirrus begins moving in late today into tonight ahead of a warm
front. Have a tight POP gradient, with precip just skimming the
far north late tonight, pretty much just northern most tier of
counties. ECMWF is a bit more aggressive bringing precip
south...while the NAM and GFS barely clip the CWA. 850mb temps
still well below zero, so precip should be in the form of snow
with some minor accumulations possible by sunrise Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

Models are in stunning agreement with timing and intensity of
Sunday night into Monday precip, so confidence is rather high at
this point that there shouldn`t be too much snow in our CWA. All
said and done less than an inch and most of that in the north
while the southern half of our CWA may escape the snow altogether.
Instead, rain will be the predominant weather maker as this system
passes. I will throw the caveat that a slight nudge colder could
change the forecast to more of a snow event, but at this time that
seems highly unlikely. Even the mountains escape most of the snow
though lingering cold air may cause a bit of a freezing rain
threat.

After the Sun night/Mon system passes, high pressure builds for
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 PM Friday...

There continues to be some disagreement on how the next shot of
cold air comes to fruition later next week. This argues for not
straying away from the Superblend for now. This brings the next
round of arctic air into the area midweek which may or may not be
ushered in by a wave on the front.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Saturday...

Still have mostly MVFR stratus hanging around, although breaks are
beginning to move in from the west. Overall trend will be an
improvement to VFR from west to east through this morning. Still a
few flurries falling along and east of I-79. Cirrus begin
streaming in late today and tonight. Wind will generally be light,
with some variability as a warm front sets up across or just north
of CWA late tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of MVFR stratocumulus may
vary into this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 12/10/16
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    L    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    L    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in rain developing Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ



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