Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 010922
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
422 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. MUCH COLDER AIR BLOWS IN ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA...WITH VIRGA
TRANSITIONING TO MEASURABLE PRECIP AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. A TRICKY AREA OF FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP ALONG EDGE OF
PRECIP SHIELD THIS MORNING SO ISSUED SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. THE
AREA IS FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND SMALL IN SCALE AS TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARM BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND. DUE TO THIS SMALL SCALE AND
ELUSIVE NATURE...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS NORTH. SO IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST AREA IT WILL
BE SNOWING WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

WINDS AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
GETS CLOSER. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
OVER SE OHIO TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS NORTHEAST MONDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE VERY COLD AIR BEHIND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CHANGING ANY PCPN TO ALL SNOW. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO PRODUCE IDEAL SET UP FOR UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LOWLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
SEE SNOW AFTER DAWN ON MONDAY.

AS THE MOISTURE STARTS TO DECREASE AFTER ALL PCPN TRANSITIONS INTO
SNOW...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PERRY COUNTY....WITH 1 TO 3 IN MORGAN
COUNTY...AND AROUND AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.

EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS TO RECEIVE AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLAND COUNTIES SUCH
AS CLARKSBURG AREA...WHERE A GOOD INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS COULD EASILY GET 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON NW FACING SLOPES. THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO A LIGHTER FLUFFIER SNOW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON MONDAY AS
850MB -16C AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OVER MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FAST FLOW...AND FEW
OPPORTUNITIES TO ACCESS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME 20/30 POPS A BIT FASTER SOUTH BY DAWN WEDNESDAY INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

12Z GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE  MOVING UP THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ECMWF CERTAINLY NOT AS
MOIST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE COLDER AIR BLOWING SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.  WENT COLDER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DRYING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE FAST FLOW...NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY LATE DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FOR NOW...A TRANSITION TO MVFR WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THAT WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO MVFR EARLIER.
THESE SITES WILL ALSO BE IN THE COOLER FROZEN PRECIPITATION AREA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH EARLY ON...DESCENDING TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND DEGREE
AND DURATION OF WORST CONDITIONS MAY VARY.  TIMING OF PRECIP TYPE
TRANSITIONS MAY ALSO VARY AND...WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY CODED UP...FZRA
IS A POSSIBILITY PKB...CKB...EKN...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FREEZING
RAIN EARLY SUN MORNING HTS AND CRW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 02/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE HIGHER WV MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN....LINGERING IN AND NEAR THE WV MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JW







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