Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 221230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Oct 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 22-Oct 24 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 22-Oct 24 2017

            Oct 22     Oct 23     Oct 24
00-03UT        3          2          2
03-06UT        2          1          2
06-09UT        1          2          2
09-12UT        1          1          2
12-15UT        1          1          3
15-18UT        2          1          3
18-21UT        2          1          4
21-00UT        2          2          5 (G1)

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on day
three (24 Oct) due to the anticipated onset of a positive polarity CH
HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2017

              Oct 22  Oct 23  Oct 24
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2017

              Oct 22        Oct 23        Oct 24
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over the next three days due to the flare potential from
Region 2685.


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