Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 291231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jun 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 29-Jul 01 2015 is 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 29-Jul 01 2015

            Jun 29     Jun 30     Jul 01
00-03UT        2          2          2
03-06UT        2          2          1
06-09UT        2          2          1
09-12UT        2          1          1
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        1          1          1
18-21UT        1          1          2
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 29-Jul 01 2015

              Jun 29  Jun 30  Jul 01
S1 or greater   25%      5%      1%

Rationale: There is a chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm on
day one (29 Jun) due to the flare potential of Region 2371 coupled with
an elevated 10 MeV proton flux. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to return to background levels by day two (30 Jun).

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 29-Jul 01 2015

              Jun 29        Jun 30        Jul 01
R1-R2           25%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    5%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare
activity on day one (29 Jun) as Region 2371 transits the west limb.


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