Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
FXXX10 KWNP 301231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Oct 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 30-Nov 01 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 30-Nov 01 2014

            Oct 30     Oct 31     Nov 01
00-03UT        1          3          3
03-06UT        1          2          2
06-09UT        2          2          2
09-12UT        2          2          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        3          2          2
21-00UT        3          3          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 30-Nov 01 2014

              Oct 30  Oct 31  Nov 01
S1 or greater   35%     20%      5%

Rationale: There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at
or above the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm level on day 1 (30 Oct),
decreasing to a slight chance for day 2 (31 Oct) as Region 2192 departs.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 30 2014 0135 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 30-Nov 01 2014

              Oct 30        Oct 31        Nov 01
R1-R2           65%           25%           10%
R3 or greater   35%           20%            5%

Rationale: As Region 2192 completes its transition around the west limb,
combined with the relatively benign nature of the remaining regions on
the disk, flare probabilities are expected to decline. Day 1 (30 Oct)
keeps R1-R2 radio blackouts likely early in the period with a lingering
chance for an R3 (strong) or greater radio blackout. By day 2 (31 Oct),
there is only a chance for an R1-R2 radio blackout and slight chance for
an R3 (strong) event as Region 2192 completes its transition around the
limb. By day 3 (01 Nov), only a slight chance of an R1-R2 radio blackout
event remains.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.