Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 291231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Dec 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 29-Dec 31 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 29-Dec 31 2014

            Dec 29     Dec 30     Dec 31
00-03UT        2          3          3
03-06UT        3          2          2
06-09UT        2          2          2
09-12UT        3          2          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        3          3          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 29-Dec 31 2014

              Dec 29  Dec 30  Dec 31
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 29-Dec 31 2014

              Dec 29        Dec 30        Dec 31
R1-R2           25%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    5%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts
on Dec 29, and a slight chance for the remainder of the period,
particularly from Regions 2249, 2248 and 2251.


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