Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 200031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Aug 20 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 20-Aug 22 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 20-Aug 22 2017

            Aug 20     Aug 21     Aug 22
00-03UT        5 (G1)     4          4
03-06UT        4          3          3
06-09UT        3          3          3
09-12UT        3          3          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        3          2          2
18-21UT        4          3          2
21-00UT        4          3          3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on day one
(20 Aug) due to continued coronal hole high speed stream effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 20-Aug 22 2017

              Aug 20  Aug 21  Aug 22
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 20-Aug 22 2017

              Aug 20        Aug 21        Aug 22
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts for the forecast period (20-22 Aug).



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