Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 020031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Aug 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 02-Aug 04 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 02-Aug 04 2014

            Aug 02     Aug 03     Aug 04
00-03UT        3          4          3
03-06UT        2          3          3
06-09UT        2          3          3
09-12UT        1          3          2
12-15UT        1          3          2
15-18UT        1          2          2
18-21UT        4          2          2
21-00UT        3          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 02-Aug 04 2014

              Aug 02  Aug 03  Aug 04
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 01 2014 1448 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 02-Aug 04 2014

              Aug 02        Aug 03        Aug 04
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts for the forecast
period (01-03 Aug) are likely with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) due
to the flare history and potential from Regions 2127, 2130, and 2132.



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