Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 180031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Sep 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 18-Sep 20 2014 is 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 18-Sep 20 2014

            Sep 18     Sep 19     Sep 20
00-03UT        2          2          2
03-06UT        1          1          1
06-09UT        1          1          1
09-12UT        1          1          1
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        1          1          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 18-Sep 20 2014

              Sep 18  Sep 19  Sep 20
S1 or greater    5%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 18-Sep 20 2014

              Sep 18        Sep 19        Sep 20
R1-R2           30%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    5%            1%            1%

Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts exists on
day one (18 Sep) due to flare potential from Regions 2164 (S13W53) and
2158 (N15W93). A slight chance for activity exists on days two and three
(19-20 Sep) as Region 2158 advances around the west limb.


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