Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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AXUS74 KLZK 160104
DGTLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-
059-063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-101-103-105-109-113-
115-117-119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-161200-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
700 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

...SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A LOT OF RAIN AND FLOODING IN AUGUST...PRECIPITATION SHUT
OFF IN THE FALL. IT WAS THE 11TH DRIEST FALL ON RECORD IN ARKANSAS...
WITH A STATEWIDE AVERAGE OF ONLY 6.70 INCHES OF LIQUID. IT REMAINED
VERY DRY IN PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST IN DECEMBER...WITH A WORSENING
DROUGHT NOTED.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU. IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY MORNING AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL DATA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. THERE ARE FOUR LEVELS OF
DROUGHT: D1 /MODERATE/...D2 /SEVERE/...D3 /EXTREME/...AND D4
/EXCEPTIONAL/.

THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...VALID JANUARY 10TH 2017...
INDICATED D2 /9 PERCENT COVERAGE/ AND SOME D3 /2 PERCENT COVERAGE/
CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS AFFECTED MAINLY NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF JOHNSON...LOGAN...NEWTON...AND SCOTT
COUNTIES.

CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES DURING MUCH OF THE FALL /SEPTEMBER
THROUGH NOVEMBER/. UNDER THE HIGH...IT WAS WARMER THAN USUAL AND
THERE WAS NOT MUCH RAIN.

IT WAS THE SECOND WARMEST FALL ON RECORD SINCE 1895. AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WERE FOUR TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FREEZES ARE
TYPICALLY FELT IN PARTS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY LATE OCTOBER...
BUT NOT THIS YEAR. VEGETATION WAS SLOW TO GO DORMANT...SO GROUND
WATER CONSUMPTION WAS ELEVATED.

AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS BECAME SERIOUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...
THE RAIN CAME IN DECEMBER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ARKANSAS. MONTHLY RAINFALL WAS ABOVE AVERAGE AT EL DORADO /UNION
COUNTY/...TEXARKANA /MILLER COUNTY/...AND WEST MEMPHIS. THE RAIN
STAYED AWAY IN THE NORTHWEST...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF LIQUID
AT FORT SMITH /SEBASTIAN COUNTY/...AND UNDER TWO INCHES AT
FAYETTEVILLE /WASHINGTON COUNTY/ AND HARRISON /BOONE COUNTY/.

FROM OCTOBER 1ST THROUGH DECEMBER 31ST /92 DAYS/...FIVE TO TEN
INCH RAINFALL DEFICITS WERE COMMON IN THE NORTHWEST. MANY LOCATIONS
HAD LESS THAN HALF THE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS THREE MONTH
PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION FROM OCTOBER 1ST THROUGH DECEMBER 31ST 2016...

SITE                  AMOUNT     DEPARTURE   PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/   5.63        -6.17          48
HARRISON /NC AR/       5.89        -5.09          54
JONESBORO /NE AR/      9.60        -4.33          69
FORT SMITH /WC AR/     2.76        -9.29          23
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/     8.86        -6.30          58
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/  10.66        -3.92          73
TEXARKANA /SW AR/     10.07        -4.73          68
EL DORADO /SC AR/     11.16        -4.10          73
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/     9.11        -6.16          60

FOR THE YEAR /2016/...THE NORTHWEST WAS THE DRIEST SECTION OF
THE STATE. RAINFALL DEFICITS WERE MOSTLY BETWEEN TEN AND FIFTEEN
INCHES.

PRECIPITATION IN 2016...

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/  33.37       -15.14          69
HARRISON /NC AR/      35.41        -8.73          80
JONESBORO /NE AR/     52.56        +4.46         109
FORT SMITH /WC AR/    31.18       -14.28          69
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/    56.12        +6.37         113
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/  53.02        +0.79         102
TEXARKANA /SW AR/     49.33        -0.32          99
EL DORADO /SC AR/     61.64        +8.72         116
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/    54.38        +3.23         106

SOIL MOISTURE/HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY/FIRE DANGER...

THERE WAS A MODERATE FIRE DANGER IN 22 OF 75 COUNTIES
AS OF JANUARY 15TH. THESE COUNTIES WERE IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
THERE WERE NO BURN BANS POSTED.

SOIL MOISTURE WAS WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHWEST. VALUES
WERE IN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OR LESS /30TH TO 70TH PERCENTILE
IS NORMAL/.

STREAMFLOW ALONG AREA TRIBUTARIES WAS SUBPAR AT MOST SITES NORTH
AND WEST OF LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI COUNTY/. VALUES WERE IN THE
10TH TO 24TH PERCENTILE...BUT LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE
AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS /25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE IS NORMAL/.

FORECAST...

IT WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WITH GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. THIS MAY RESULT IN ABOVE
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING AHEAD...WE ARE TRANSITIONING FROM EL NINO /WARMER THAN NORMAL
WATER ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN/ TO A WEAK LA NINA
/COOLER THAN NORMAL WATER/. THIS MAY INFLUENCE WHAT IS TO COME THIS
WINTER. IN THE PAST FIVE TRANSITIONS FROM EL NINO TO NEUTRAL OR
LA NINA CONDITIONS...PRECIPITATION IN ARKANSAS WAS CLOSE TO AVERAGE
THREE TIMES AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TWICE DURING THE WINTER /DECEMBER
THROUGH FEBRUARY/.

YEARS               DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY          DEPARTURE

1959/1960                    12.73                       +0.61
1966/1967                     7.83                       -4.29
1983/1984                    12.66                       +0.54
1992/1993                    12.57                       +0.45
2005/2006                     7.86                       -4.26

THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR
EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE AVERAGE...BELOW AVERAGE...AND NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IN ARKANSAS FROM JANUARY THROUGH MARCH. UNLESS THERE
IS SURPLUS LIQUID IN DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS /ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES/ HEADING INTO THE SPRING...THE ONGOING DROUGHT WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK HOMEPAGE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

DROUGHT INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO WFO LITTLE ROCK CWA
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LZK/DROUGHT.HTM

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER:
HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SOUTHERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.SRCC.LSU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:
HTTP://WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
8400 REMOUNT ROAD
NORTH LITTLE ROCK AR 72118

PHONE: 501-834-0308
EMAIL: SR-LZK.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

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