Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
157 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2017


...Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

...Expect below normal to near normal potential of river flooding
across the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area...

This Spring Flood Potential Outlook is for rivers and tributaries
of the Central Savannah River Basin...East-Central Georgia and
Central South Carolina including the following:

Savannah River Basin Downstream of R. B. Russell Reservoir and
upstream from Burtons Ferry...

The Edisto River basin upstream of the Bamberg and Orangeburg
County line in South Carolina...

The Santee River Basin upstream of the Clarendon and Berkeley
County line and downstream on the Saluda and Broad Rivers at the
Greenwood/Saluda...Laurens/Newberry...Union/Fairfield and the
Chester/Fairfield County lines in South Carolina...

The Wateree River System downstream of Great Falls South
Carolina...

The Great Pee Dee River Basin in Chesterfield County in South
Carolina...

           ...Summary of Recent Weather Events...

Over the last 14 days ending April 13 2017...the hydrologic area
received rainfall amounts that ranged from 1.5 to 3.0 inches
across the Central Savannah River Area up to 3 to 5 inches across
the Midlands. This is approximately 110 to 300 percent of normal
for the 14 day period.

          ...Soul Moisture-Drought Conditions...

Here is a breakdown of the current conditions across the Midlands
and CSRA.

D1...Moderate Drought covered just the western Midlands. This
includes the counties of McCormick...northern Edgefield...
northern
Saluda...Newberry and western Fairfield counties.

D0...Abnormally Dry conditions covered much of the remainder of
the Midlands and CSRA. Only a narrow swath that extends from
the Columbia Metro Area...Aiken...Richmond and northern Burke
counties remains under normal conditions.

Go to www.drought.gov for more details.


             ...River and Stream Flow...

Looking at the 14 day stream flow average compared to historical
streamflows for April 13 2017 show quite a bit of improvement
over
the past 2 weeks across the region. Most of the stream gages
along
the Savannah River Basin remained below normal. However, the
remainder of streams showed normal to above normal flows for the
period.


                ...Reservoir Levels...

Many of the area reservoirs pools have increased their storage
over the past couple of weeks. Areas along the Savannah River
Basin are below normal for their Spring target pool/guide curves.
The Saluda and Santee Basins remain near or just above their
Spring target pool/guide curves.

Lake Thurmond (FP 330.0 Feet)...
Mar 30 2017    320.41 Feet
Apr 13 2017    321.81 Feet
Difference Plus 1.41  Feet

Lake Greenwood (FP 440.0 Feet)...
Mar 30 2017    436.70 Feet
Apr 13 2017    439.09 Feet
Difference Plus  2.39 Feet

Lake Murray (FP 360.0 Feet)...
Mar 30 2017    356.92 Feet
Apr 13 2017    358.06 Feet
Difference Plus  1.14 Feet

Lake Marion (FP 76.8 Feet)...
Mar 30 2017     74.66 Feet
Apr 13 2017     75.85 Feet
Difference Plus  1.19 Feet

Lake Wateree (FP 100.00 Feet)...
Mar 30 2017     97.96 Feet
Apr 13 2017     97.54 Feet
Difference Minus 0.42 Feet

Data for this segment was gathered from the United States
Geological Survey...the United States Army Corps of
Engineers...Duke Energy...South Carolina Electric and Gas and
Santee Cooper.


      ...Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks...

Near Term...High pressure will dominate the weather for the first
half of the near term period with above normal temperatures and
little chances for rainfall. By early next week, a cold front
will
stall just north of the area through midweek. This will provide a
chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts from 0.25 inch up to 0.50 inch are possible.

Please see the Gridded Forecasts for the chance of rain over the
next 7 days at weather.gov/cae.

The 8 to 14 Day Outlook for the period April 21 to April 27 calls
for a 40 to 50 percent chance of above normal temperatures along
with a 33 to 40 percent chance of above normal precipitation
through the period.

The 30-Day Outlook for April 2017 indicates 40 percent chance of
above normal temperatures with equal chance for above...below and
normal precipitation.

The 3-Month Outlook for April...May and June calls for a 50
percent chance of above normal temperatures with equal chances of
above...below and near normal precipitation.

Go to the Climate Prediction Center webpage at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov for more details and the latest outlooks.

                   ...Summary/Outlook...

The Spring Flood Outlook calls for below normal potential of
river flooding across Central South Carolina and East-Central
Georgia.

Historically...the River Flood Season begins in early to mid
January with the number of river flood events increasing through
late Winter into early Spring. The peak occurs in early to mid
March then begins to end in late April for the region.

The medium to long range precipitation guidance indicates little
confidence in the region receiving above normal precipitation
through the Spring season. Although stream flows have improved
over the past 2 weeks, the threat of river flooding remain low.
The area Reservoirs along the Savannah River are running below
target pool or guide curves. The Santee and Catawba River
Reservoirs are running near or just above normal for their target
pool/guide curves for middle April. Overall...the relative risk
of
river flooding downstream from these projects is below normal.

The next schedule Winter/Spring Flood Outlook is scheduled for
Thursday April 27 2017.

For additional Drought Information, please check out the latest
Drought Information Statement from the NWS Columbia Office. You
can view the product at:

www.weather.gov/cae/droughtstatement.html


                ...Questions and Comments...

If you have any questions or comments about this outlook please
contact...

The National Weather Service
2909 Aviation Way
West Columbia SC 29170
Phone: 803-822-8135
Internet Address: caewx@noaa.gov
Senior Service Hydrologist:
Leonard.Vaughan@noaa.gov

Vaughan



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