Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FGUS75 KGJT 052242
ESFGJT
COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-107-
111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-281915-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
340 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH NUMBER 2...

THIS 2015 SPRING RUNOFF OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH COVERING ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE...UPPER
COLORADO...DUCHESNE...GREEN...GUNNISON...DOLORES AND SAN JUAN RIVER
BASINS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING 2015 FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT IS NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE UPPER COLORADO...EAGLE...UPPER GREEN
YAMPA...LITTLE SNAKE...ROARING FORK...GUNNISON...SAN JUAN...DOLORES
RIVER BASINS IN UTAH AND COLORADO. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS MUCH LOWER
THAN USUAL FOR THE DUCHESNE RIVER BASIN IN EASTERN UTAH.

AS OF THE MARCH 1 FORECAST THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR CAMEO HAS A 10
PERCENT EXCEEDANCE LEVEL TO PEAK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. MEAN DAILY PEAK
FLOW FORECASTS FOR OTHER SITES AT DIFFERENT EXCEEDANCE LEVELS ARE IN
A TABLE BELOW

VOLUME FORECAST FOR THE 2015 APRIL THROUGH JULY PERIOD IS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE UPPER GREEN...UPPER COLORADO AND EAGLE
RIVER BASINS. THE REST OF THE BASINS IN WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH HAVE A BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VOLUME FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL
MONTHLY VOLUME FORECAST AS OF MARCH 1 IS IN A TABLE BELOW.

SPRING TEMPERATURES AFFECT THE PATTERN OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE MAGNITUDE OF PEAK FLOWS. IN NORMAL
YEARS...ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK CAN ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
APRIL. HEAVY RAINFALL OR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SNOW MELT SEASON CAN AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF VOLUME AND INCREASE THE
FLOOD THREAT.


OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------

PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS SEASON HAS BEEN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
OVER MOST OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.

FEBRUARY STARTED OUT VERY DRY LEADING TO PRECIPITATION BELOW TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST BASINS. THE EXCEPTIONS WERE THE FAR UPPER
COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND THE FAR UPPER SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN WHICH
HAD NORMAL PRECIPITATION DUE TO A COUPLE LATE IN THE MONTH STORMS.

THE LAST PART OF FEBRUARY SAW A COUPLE OF LARGE SCALE MOIST SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION HELPED TO INCREASE SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) VALUES. FROM THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY TO MARCH
1 THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BASINS INCREASED 8 TO 16 PERCENT OF
NORMAL SWE. THE SNOW THE LAST WEEKEND IN FEBRUARY AND THE FIRST PART
OF MARCH HAD ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTENT AND GREATLY INCREASED THE
SNOW PACK OVER ALL THE BASINS. JUST IN THE FIRST PART OF MARCH
ANOTHER 3 TO 9 PERCENT OF NORMAL HAS BEEN ADDED WITH SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH ADDING THE MOST AT 17 PERCENT. BELOW IS A TABLE OF SWE THROUGH
MARCH 5.

BASIN AVERAGED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES FOR WESTERN COLORADO
RANGE FROM 77 TO 101 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND FOR EASTERN UTAH 70 TO
101 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER GREEN RIVER
ABOVE FLAMING GORGE RESERVOIR IS 107 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

THE TREND IN THE THE UPPER COLORADO AND EAGLE RIVERS CONTINUED...THE
BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR WESTERN COLORADO WERE IN THE UPPER
COLORADO AND EAGLE RIVER BASINS AND MAINLY IN THE FAR UPPER PART OF
THE BASINS. FARTHER WEST IN EACH OF THESE BASINS SNOW ACCUMULATION
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL.

JANUARY PRECIPITATION WAS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE BASINS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THE EXCEPTION
WAS OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO WHERE
PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR JANUARY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT FELL DID NOT IMPROVE THE SNOWPACK IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO HELP REDUCE THE
SNOWPACK AT LOWER AND MIDDLE SLOPE LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
FEBRUARY.

BASIN SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...PERCENT OF MEDIAN...FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2014 TO MARCH 5 2015:
----------------------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER
                        EQUIVALENT
-----                   ----------
YAMPA/WHITE                 87
UPPER COLORADO HDWRS       101
ROARING FORK                92
GUNNISON                    86
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL          82
SAN JUAN                    79
ANIMAS                      77

IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER
                        EQUIVALENT
-----                   ----------
GREEN                      101
DUCHESNE                    70
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH           90
----------------------------------

MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS
ISSUED MARCH 1 2015

LOCATION                   FLOOD     FCST   FORECAST FLOWS
                            FLOW     DATE      90%    75%    50%    25%    10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS   5930 2015-03-01   2000   2200   2700   3200   4300
ELK - MILNER, NR            5750 2015-03-01   2200   2700   3100   3800   5300
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR        21200 2015-03-01   5500   6500   7500   8500  11000
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR     -999 2015-03-01   1700   2200   2700   3500   4500
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK      -999 2015-03-01   7500   8000  10000  11000  15000
WHITE - MEEKER, NR          8324 2015-03-01   1800   2100   2500   2800   3500
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR       2180 2015-03-01    300    350    400    500    700
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE   1530 2015-03-01    600    650    800    950   1200
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC    410 2015-03-01     70     90    110    130    190
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO         6550 2015-03-01   2200   2400   3200   4000   5900
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR     17000 2015-03-01   5200   5700   7800  10000  16000
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A   3140 2015-03-01   1100   1250   1500   1850   2300
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S  17100 2015-03-01   3400   4000   4900   6000   7800
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR       26000 2015-03-01  10000  11000  14500  18000  27000
EAST - ALMONT               3170 2015-03-01   1050   1200   1400   1750   2100
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N  13870 2015-03-01   1620   1700   2300   2900   3700
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE      1410 2015-03-01     70    120    150    200    260
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION  19520 2015-03-01   8000   8000   8000   8500   9000
DOLORES - RICO, BLO         1780 2015-03-01    650    770    870    970   1250
DOLORES - DOLORES           7130 2015-03-01   1900   2200   2500   2900   3700
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE,   3190 2015-03-01    880   1020   1100   1200   1600
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI  46200 2015-03-01  16500  17500  21500  26000  37000
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS   5000 2015-03-01    960   1200   1400   1700   1800
ANIMAS - DURANGO           10200 2015-03-01   2600   2900   3200   3900   4300
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON         8810 2015-03-01   2200   2600   3000   3700   4300
MANCOS - MANCOS, NR         2800 2015-03-01     45    110    180    240    440

----------------------------------------------------

RESERVOIR STORAGE (KAF) AS OF FEBUARY 28:
                            C U R R E N T   Y R     1981-2010
                          EOM      % OF     % OF    FEB 28        USABLE
                          STORAGE  AVERAGE  CAPACITYAVG STORAGE   CAPACITY
   COLORADO - LAKE GRANB|    484.0|    146|     99||      332.0|     490.3|
   WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK|      9.5|    115|    104||        8.2|       9.1|
   WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI|     78.1|    125|     81||       62.4|      96.9|
   MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO|     45.4|    103|     69||       44.2|      66.0|
   BLUE - DILLON RES    |    244.8|    112|     96||      219.3|     254.0|
   BLUE - GREEN MTN RES |     70.8|     96|     48||       73.5|     146.9|
   HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST|  -9999.0|    -99|    -99||       30.7|      43.0|
   FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE|     78.2|    115|     77||       67.9|     102.0|
   PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES|     15.0|    113|     45||       13.2|      32.9|
   TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK |     78.0|    119|     73||       65.7|     106.2|
   GUNNISON - BLUE MESA |    546.6|    113|     66||      482.2|     829.5|
   GUNNISON - MORROW POI|    110.1|     99|     94||      111.1|     117.0|
   GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE|     16.7|    106|     95||       15.8|      17.5|
   MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES|      1.2|     25|      7||        4.7|      16.7|
   UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY|     77.5|    112|     93||       69.4|      83.0|
   DOLORES - MCPHEE RES |    186.0|     68|     49||      272.3|     381.1|
   LOS PINOS - VALLECITO|     99.8|    157|     80||       63.5|     125.4|
   SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES|   1095.9|     85|     65||     1292.2|    1696.0|
   FLORIDA - LEMON RES, |     22.3|    106|     56||       21.0|      39.8|
   COLORADO - LAKE POWEL|  11023.6|     65|     45||    17054.6|   24322.0|

----------------------------------------------------

SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF FEBRUARY 1 2015 FOR THE
PERIOD APRIL TO JULY 2014 UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED

STREAMFLOW FORECASTS:
DEVELOPED:                    MAR 1 2015

YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
YAMPA RIVER
  STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV            APR-JUL     23   100     31   17.5     23
  STEAMBOAT SPRINGS               APR-JUL    230    88    320    170    260
ELK RIVER
  MILNER, NR                      APR-JUL    280    88    370    210    320
ELKHEAD CK
  LONG GULCH, ABV, HAYDEN, NR     APR-JUL     43    59     65     23     73
YAMPA RIVER
  MAYBELL, NR                     APR-JUL    725    78    970    525    935
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
  SLATER, NR                      APR-JUL    115    74    157     73    156
  DIXON, NR                       APR-JUL    205    59    300    119    345
  LILY, NR                        APR-JUL    210    61    310    115    345
YAMPA RIVER
  DEERLODGE PARK                  APR-JUL    925    75   1300    600   1240
WHITE RIVER
  MEEKER, NR                      APR-JUL    230    82    320    175    280
  WATSON, NR                      APR-JUL    240    86    340    180    280

UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR         APR-JUL    230   105    305    170    220
WILLOW CK
  WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR       APR-JUL     44    94     70     29     47
FRASER RIVER
  WINTER PARK                     APR-JUL     20   103     25   16.0   19.4
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
  WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N  APR-JUL    100   104    135     80     96
BLUE RIVER
  DILLON RES                      APR-JUL    188   115    235    150    163
  GREEN MTN RES                   APR-JUL    310   113    395    240    275
MUDDY CK
  WOLFORD MOUNTAIN RESERVOIR      APR-JUL     50    93     70     30     54
COLORADO RIVER
  KREMMLING, NR                   APR-JUL    910   106   1200    700    860
EAGLE RIVER
  GYPSUM, BLO                     APR-JUL    320    96    460    250    335
COLORADO RIVER
  DOTSERO, NR                     APR-JUL   1430   102   1920   1100   1400
FRYING PAN RIVER
  RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR           APR-JUL    130    94    180    100    139
ROARING FORK RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS                APR-JUL    600    87    825    485    690
COLORADO RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO           APR-JUL   2000    95   2700   1600   2110
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL   2110    89   2960   1700   2360
PLATEAU CK
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL     55    44     95     35    124

GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
TAYLOR RIVER
  TAYLOR PARK RES                 APR-JUL     90    91    125     75     99
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    138    89    190    112    155
EAST RIVER
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    133    73    195    103    182
GUNNISON RIVER
  GUNNISON, NR                    APR-JUL    290    78    415    210    370
TOMICHI CK
  GUNNISON                        APR-JUL     70    95    112     49     74
LAKE FORK RIVER
  GATEVIEW                        APR-JUL    127   103    180     90    123
GUNNISON RIVER
  BLUE MESA RES                   APR-JUL    600    89    860    450    675
  MORROW POINT RES                APR-JUL    650    88    910    500    740
  CRYSTAL RES                     APR-JUL    730    87    990    580    835
MUDDY CK
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         MAR-JUN     58    60     90     40     96
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         APR-JUL     58    60     90     40     97
NF GUNNISON RIVER
  SOMERSET, NR                    APR-JUL    200    68    300    150    295
SURFACE CK
  CEDAREDGE                       APR-JUL   10.0    60   15.0    6.0   16.8
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
  RIDGWAY RES                     APR-JUL     91    90    130     68    101
  COLONA                          APR-JUL    118    86    185     90    137
  DELTA                           APR-JUL     90    80    162     65    113
GUNNISON RIVER
  GRAND JUNCTION, NR              APR-JUL   1180    80   1850    930   1480

DOLORES BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
DOLORES RIVER
  DOLORES                         APR-JUL    200    82    285    125    245
  MCPHEE RES                      APR-JUL    230    78    350    140    295
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
  PLACERVILLE, NR                 APR-JUL    110    86    150     83    128
DOLORES RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL    400    71    650    265    565

UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL   3650    82   5300   2850   4440

SAN JUAN BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS                  APR-JUL    125    58    185     80    215
  CARRACAS, NR                    APR-JUL    200    53    300    135    380
RIO BLANCO RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM  APR-JUL     35    65     50     24     54
NAVAJO RIVER
  CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO    APR-JUL     38    58     52     25     65
PIEDRA RIVER
  ARBOLES, NR                     APR-JUL    136    65    200     75    210
LOS PINOS RIVER
  VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR     APR-JUL    150    77    200     95    194
SAN JUAN RIVER
  NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR       APR-JUL    415    56    650    215    735
FLORIDA RIVER
  LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR          APR-JUL     38    69     55     21     55
ANIMAS RIVER
  DURANGO                         APR-JUL    315    76    450    220    415
SAN JUAN RIVER
  FARMINGTON                      APR-JUL    655    60    970    370   1100
LA PLATA RIVER
  HESPERUS                        APR-JUL   15.0    65     24    9.0     23
SAN JUAN RIVER
  BLUFF, NR                       APR-JUL    630    57    930    340   1100
MANCOS RIVER
  MANCOS, NR                      APR-JUL   19.0    61     31   10.0     31


EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
GREEN RIVER
  FLAMING GORGE RES, FLAMING GOR  APR-JUL    825    84   1220    540    980
WHITE RIVER
  WATSON, NR                      APR-JUL    240    86    340    180    280
BIG BRUSH CK
  VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV  APR-JUL   11.3    54   19.6    5.9     21
ASHLEY CK
  VERNAL, NR                      APR-JUL     23    46     43   12.9     50
WHITEROCKS RIVER
  WHITEROCKS, NR                  APR-JUL     32    59     48     21     54
UINTA RIVER
  NEOLA, NR                       APR-JUL     45    61     65     26     74
DUCHESNE RIVER
  RANDLETT, NR                    APR-JUL    190    49    295    118    385

LAKE POWELL
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT   APR-JUL   5100    71   7200   3470   7160


MP    MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP%   MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE.
RMAX  VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN  VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1981-2010 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.


CLIMATE OUTLOOK:
---------------

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD
FROM MARCH THROUGH MAY INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND EQUAL CHANGES OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY THE ENSO IS IN A WEAK EL NINO AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY SPRING AND THEN MOVE TOWARD
NEUTRAL.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION AND CONDITIONS COULD
CHANGE BEFORE THE RUNOFF BEGINS.

CHANGING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI

DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.

$$

AS



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