Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FGUS73 KMPX 231833
ESFMSP
MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139-
141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-302359-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
130 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID  PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATERGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS        6.0   15.0   16.0 :   6   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM             11.0   13.0   16.0 :   7   21   <5   10   <5   <5
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO          14.0   16.0   17.5 :  13   36   <5   12   <5   <5
GRANITE FALLS      888.5  893.5  896.5 :   6   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
MANKATO             22.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
HENDERSON          732.0  736.0  739.5 :  <5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
JORDAN              25.0   28.0   34.0 :  12   23   <5    7   <5   <5
SAVAGE             702.0  710.0  712.0 :  35   50   <5    7   <5   <5
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE         7.0    8.0   10.0 :  13   20    6    6   <5   <5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD             6.0    7.0    9.0 :  <5   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER               11.0   15.0   16.0 :  20   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
DELANO              16.5   17.5   18.5 :   9   10    7   <5   <5   <5
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD            10.0   12.0   14.0 :  12   15    6    9   <5   <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD             9.0   10.0   11.0 :  13   16    6    9   <5   <5
MINNEAPOLIS         16.0   16.5   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ST PAUL             14.0   15.0   17.0 :  10   18    6   13   <5    6
HASTINGS L/D#2      15.0   17.0   18.0 :  18   29    6   15   <5    7
RED WING L/D#3     680.5  681.5  683.0 :   7   15   <5   13   <5   <5
RED WING            14.0   15.0   16.0 :   6   13   <5   12   <5   <5
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER          87.0   88.0   89.0 :  12   18    7    9    6   <5
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK          11.0   14.0   17.0 :  13   13    9   <5   <5   <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE         773.0  776.0  778.0 :  12    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
DURAND              13.0   15.5   17.0 :  35   23    9   <5   <5   <5


LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         1.8    1.8    2.5    3.0    4.4    5.7    7.4
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM               3.7    4.6    5.3    6.7    8.9   10.9   13.0
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO            5.5    5.6    7.6   10.0   11.5   14.7   15.7
GRANITE FALLS       883.7  883.8  884.5  885.3  885.8  887.4  888.5
MANKATO               6.3    7.2    9.4   12.2   15.5   19.1   19.5
HENDERSON           718.6  719.4  722.6  725.3  728.3  731.1  731.6
JORDAN               10.0   10.8   14.6   18.4   23.2   25.7   26.3
SAVAGE              696.0  696.1  697.9  699.6  704.0  706.9  708.7
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          4.2    4.2    4.5    5.4    6.2    7.4    8.9
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              2.9    2.9    3.0    3.4    4.4    5.2    6.0
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 5.3    5.3    5.5    6.6   10.2   12.5   14.6
DELANO               10.0   10.1   10.1   11.3   14.5   16.6   18.3
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              4.7    4.7    4.8    5.3    8.2   10.4   13.4
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              7.7    7.7    7.7    7.9    8.6    9.8   10.7
MINNEAPOLIS          10.0   10.0   10.0   10.1   12.4   13.7   15.7
ST PAUL               7.3    7.3    7.5    8.2   11.0   14.3   16.4
HASTINGS L/D#2        9.9   10.0   10.1   11.0   13.8   16.4   17.8
RED WING L/D#3      676.7  676.7  676.7  676.8  677.8  680.2  681.5
RED WING             10.1   10.1   10.1   10.2   10.8   13.5   14.8
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           84.6   84.6   84.6   84.7   85.9   87.5   89.3
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            5.6    5.6    5.9    6.8    9.0   14.2   16.2
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          770.0  770.0  770.1  770.2  771.0  773.6  775.5
DURAND               12.6   12.7   12.7   12.8   13.6   15.5   16.1

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         1.8    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.3    1.2    1.2
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM               3.2    3.1    2.7    2.3    2.0    1.5    1.0
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO            4.0    3.9    3.3    2.8    2.3    1.9    1.4
GRANITE FALLS       882.8  882.7  882.1  881.9  881.6  881.4  881.0
MANKATO               5.7    4.3    3.3    2.7    2.1    1.7    1.5
HENDERSON           717.9  715.5  714.2  713.4  712.3  711.6  711.5
JORDAN                9.5    7.2    6.1    5.3    4.6    4.1    3.9
SAVAGE              690.3  689.0  688.1  687.5  687.4  687.4  687.4
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          3.4    3.1    2.4    1.9    1.6    1.3    1.2
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              2.8    2.4    2.0    1.6    1.2    1.0    0.9
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 3.4    3.1    2.4    1.7    1.1    0.9    0.7
DELANO                7.7    7.4    6.5    5.8    5.4    5.2    5.0
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              3.6    3.4    2.9    2.3    2.1    1.8    1.7
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              6.0    5.6    5.0    4.8    4.5    4.4    4.3
MINNEAPOLIS           6.7    5.9    5.4    4.9    4.6    4.4    4.3
ST PAUL               4.5    3.9    3.1    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
HASTINGS L/D#2        6.8    6.1    5.4    4.7    4.5    4.5    4.5
RED WING L/D#3      671.5  670.5  669.4  668.1  667.1  667.0  667.0
RED WING              5.5    4.6    3.7    2.7    2.2    1.8    1.8
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           77.6   76.9   76.3   75.7   75.4   75.2   75.1
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            1.4    1.1    1.0    0.7    0.6    0.4    0.4
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          759.8  759.2  758.9  758.8  758.6  758.5  758.5
DURAND                4.0    3.5    2.9    2.6    2.4    2.2    2.1


SNOW COVER ONLY EXISTS IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN
AND MINNESOTA...AND THUS FLOOD PROBABILITIES ARE ALMOST ENTIRELY
BASED ON POTENTIAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS. THIS MEANS THEY WILL
BE EXTREMELY DIFFULT TO PREDICT BEYOND 7 TO 10 DAYS INTO THE FUTURE.
CLIMATE PATTERNS SHOW A FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY OF SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL EVENTS OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. WITH THAT SAID...SOIL
MOISTURE IS HIGH AND BASE FLOW IN RIVERS IS FAIRLY HIGH AS WELL...AS
THE LAST OF THE SNOWMELT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT MONTH. THE OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR RIVER FLOODING REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE INTO THE EARLY SUMMER.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NWS AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES (ALL LOWER CASE) AND MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS AT
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MPX (ALL LOWER CASE)

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 60 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...PLUS CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL
MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND SHORT RANGE FORECASTS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION.  THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE
(AHPS).

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE MAY. SHOULD FORECASTS IN
THE 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD BEGIN TO INDICATE A FLOOD THREAT...THE NWS
WILL COMMUNICATE THE INFORMATION VIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS
(HWO)...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS...AND OUR WEBSITES/SOCIAL MEDIA
OUTLETS.

$$






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