Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1046 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2017

...Spring Flood Outlook...
...Average Risk for Flooding This Spring Across Middle Tennessee...

Existing Conditions...
Middle Tennessee and much of the southeastern United States have
been dealing with Extreme to Exceptional Drought conditions this
past fall and winter. Temperatures have been well above normal
across this area, as much as 9 degrees in some places, and
precipitation has been below normal overall. Portions of
southeast Tennessee are still plagued by Moderate to Extreme
drought, but most of Middle Tennessee has improved to Abnormally
Dry. Drought will likely persist through the spring which may
help reduce the overall flood threat.


Streamflows...
Current streamflows are above normal in general due to recent
rainfall, however, a few of the smaller creeks and streams on the
lower reaches of the Cumberland River and Tennessee River are
running below normal.


Rainfall...
Precipitation has been below normal for most of the fall and
winter, with December being the most recent wettest month which
lead to improvement in drought conditions. Here are some rainfall
totals across Middle Tennessee...

  Nashville Clarksville Crossville
October   0.43 (-2.61)  0.24 (-3.67)    0.27 (-2.77)
November  1.87 (-2.44)  1.93 (-2.65)    5.23 (+0.13)
December  6.94 (+2.70)  5.64 (+0.61)    7.07 (+2.12)
January   3.34 (-0.41)  3.08 (-0.23)    5.33 (+0.57)
February  1.56 (-2.38)  3.34 (-0.83)    2.68 (-1.78)


Climate Outlooks...
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center indicates
there is a higher probability of above normal temperatures across
the area, with equal chances of above, below, or normal
precipitation amounts.


Summary...
Overall, the spring flood threat across Middle Tennessee is
average. However, lingering drought conditions and a higher
probability of above normal temperatures may help reduce the
overall threat, barring an extreme rainfall event.


$$

LaRosa



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