Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
102 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 5...

THIS IS THE FIFTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A
SERIES OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS
INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING
(NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK
CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS
THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM
MARCH 10TH THROUGH MARCH 14TH SUGGESTS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MARCH 12TH
THROUGH MARCH 18TH SUGGESTS NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NYC ...LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS
ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.
REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT
WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

ICE CONDITIONS - STREAMS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA ARE
STILL BEING AFFECTED BY ICE. REAL- TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND
BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

THE US COAST GUARD REPORTS ICE CONDITION ON THE HUDSON RIVER...

SANDY HOOK BAY                    30% COVERAGE UNKNOWN THICKNESS
LOWER NEW YORK BAY                NO ICE
UPPER NEW YORK BAY                NO ICE
NEWARK BAY                        50% COVERAGE UNKNOWN THICKNESS
THROGS NECK BRIDGE                30% COVERAGE 1-2" THICKNESS
GEORGE WASHINGTON BRIDGE          40% COVERAGE 2-6" THICKNESS
TAPPAN ZEE TO WEST POINT          75% COVERAGE 4-8" THICKNESS
WEST POINT TO NEWBURGH            90% COVERAGE 14"  THICKNESS
NEWBURGH TO POUGHKEEPSIE          90% COVERAGE 2-6" THICKNESS

SNOW - SNOW DEPTH WAS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA. SINCE MARCH 5TH ACROSS NEW YORK CITY SNOW DEPTH RANGED BETWEEN
2 TO 12 INCHES...ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY SNOW DEPTH RANGED
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 INCHES...ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SNOW
DEPTH RANGED BETWEEN 7 TO 23 INCHES...ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT SNOW DEPTH RANGED BETWEEN 6 TO 16 INCHES.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT - THERE IS BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK. BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT
ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV.

SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. SOIL MOISTURE AND
DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WERE 13 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR
LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NJ RESERVOIRS WERE AROUND
5 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK
PERIOD...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN...WITH
ONLY ONE OR TWO STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TWO WEEK OUTLOOK PERIOD WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE..ON THURSDAY MARCH 5TH, 2015.


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