Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC

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000
FGUS62 KALR 131347
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA, GA
1000 AM EDT THU APR 13 2017

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL POTENTIAL OF
RIVER FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA...

...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT FOR THE 2017 FLOOD
SEASON...PLEASE CONTACT THE SERFC IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS.


HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN
EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION. THE
FORECAST FOR BELOW NORMAL RIVER FLOODING INDICATES THAT THE
MAGNITUDE AND NUMBER OF EVENTS WILL BE LESS THAN TYPICAL.

OVERALL...CONSIDERING BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ONLY NORMAL PRECIPITATION APRIL INTO EARLY MAY...THE NUMBER OF RIVER
FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LESS THAN USUAL.
IN ADDITION...CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE DECIDUOUS TREES
AND VEGETATION COME OUT OF WINTER DORMANCY SEVERAL WEEKS EARLIER
THAN NORMAL INCREASING EVAPOTRANSPIRATION RATES AND MINIMIZING
RUNOFF.

FOR 28-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS IN THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA...
STREAMFLOW LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN MOST BASINS.

PAST PRECIPITATION...IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON SERFC
MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE WHOLE AREA AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL IN SOME PARTS.  AND WHILE
STREAMFLOWS INCREASED IN RECENT RAINFALL...THEY HAVE QUICKLY GONE
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL ON A DAILY BASIS.

RESERVOIRS...MOST OF THE RESERVOIRS IN THE REGION ARE NEAR THEIR
TARGET POOLS.  THE EXCEPTION TO THAT IS ALONG THE SAVANNAH BASIN AT
THE BORDER OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.  THE TWO MAIN CORPS
RESERVOIRS THAT HAVE THE LARGEST WATER SUPPLY ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME YEAR.  AS WE HEAD INTO MAY...MANY RESERVOIR TARGET
POOLS BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR THEIR SUMMER POOL.

SNOW PACK...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA.

SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES SHOW NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
AREA.  AT THIS TIME...MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS SHOW NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS THAT WOULD PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
WINTER INTO EARLY SPRING...BASED ON THE CPC LONG LEAD OUTLOOK FOR
MARCH THROUGH MAY...THERE IS EQUAL CHANCES AT NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY....RAINFALL GENERALLY DECREASES IN APRIL RELATIVE TO
MARCH ACROSS THE REGION.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY MONTH.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC.  IN THE WATER SUPPLY
PULLDOWN MENU IS THE WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK.

HAMILL



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