Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Lower Mississippi RFC

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FGUS64 KORN 181935
ESGORN

FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA
115 PM CST WEDNESDAY JANUARY 18 2017

EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION - SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
              NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER - SLIDELL, LA
          VALID FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 19 2017


STREAMFLOW DATA PROVIDED BY THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND
THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS.

...FOR EASTERN REGION...WFOS GSP AND RNK ONLY...

...INTRODUCTION...

PRECIPITATION DEFICITS HAVE STARTED TO IMPROVE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WITH ONE
TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. DRIER CONDITIONS
REMAINED OVER WEST NORTH CAROLINA WITH ONLY 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OCCURRING DURING
THE SAME TIME. BRIEF WINTER WEATHER OCCURRED OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
NORTH CAROLINA BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE MELTED ANY REMAINING SNOW COVER
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

REGION WIDE...STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE VALUES ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
OVER WEST NORTH CAROLINA AND NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS INDICATE
WIDESPREAD MEAN AREAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST NORTH CAROLINA.

...FRENCH BROAD/UPPER PIGEON...LITTLE TENNESSEE...TUCKASEGEE
...AND HIWASSEE BASINS (WFO GSP)...

STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL ALONG ALL RIVERS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA.
SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS ALSO BELOW NORMAL. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME AND ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. OBSERVED DAILY
STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

         1/4  1/18
FRENCH BROAD RIVER          ASHEVILLE NC     78%  42%
PIGEON RIVER                    HEPCO NC     74%  39%
TUCKASEGEE RIVER          BRYSON CITY NC     61%  67%
LITTLE TENNESSEE RIVER       NEEDMORE NC     76%  34%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT...STREAMFLOWS...AND CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLOOKS...A BELOW AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE FRENCH
BROAD...UPPER LITTLE TENNESSEE...TUCKASEGEE...AND PIGEON RIVER BASINS.


...UPPER CLINCH AND UPPER HOLSTON BASINS (WFO RNK)...

STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. SOIL MOISTURE
CONTENT IS AT SEASONAL LEVELS AND NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED DURING
THE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE
GIVEN BELOW.

   1/4  1/18
N FORK HOLSTON RIVER        SALTVILLE VA   217% 151%
MID FORK HOLSTON RVR  SEVEN MILE FORD VA   167% 173%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT...STREAMFLOWS...AND CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLOOKS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPPER CLINCH
AND UPPER HOLSTON RIVER BASINS.


...EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES
EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN WEST NORTH CAROLINA AND EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION.

THE NEXT SPRINGFLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED TO BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 1 2017.

$$



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