Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 162010

National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
March 16, 2015

                       FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

The 2015 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is not high at this time
for the Great Basin, as well as the Sevier, Virgin, Price/San Rafael, and the
Duchesne River Basins.

Current snowpack conditions in the above basins are below average.  Current
seasonal snowpack conditions as a percent of median are:

Virgin River Basin               65%
Sevier River Basin               70%
Price/San Rafael River Basin     75%
Duchesne River Basin             60%
Great Basin
--Bear River Basin               60%
--Weber River Basin              65%
--Six Creeks Basin               50%
--Utah Lake                      55%

No sites are currently forecasted to reach flood or bankful stage at this time.

Specific forecast procedures and flood flow levels do not exist for all streams.
Given current snowpack conditions, below average to near average peaks may be
anticipated throughout the state

Current volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period are below
average to near average for much of the state.  In particular, volume forecasts
in the southern portion of the state and Great Basin are well below average.

It should be emphasized that snow conditions could change significantly before
seasonal runoff begins. While spring temperatures affect the pattern of
snowmelt runoff and, consequently, the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also
approximately correspond to volumetric flows. It is also important to recognize
that an extended period of much above average temperaturesor heavy rainfall
during the melt period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.

A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:

CBRFC/W.P. Miller, A.Nielson, T. Cox


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