Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS

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000
AWUS01 KWNH 280148
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-280600-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0253
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
948 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHEAST MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 280145Z - 280600Z

SUMMARY...NEARLY STATIONARY BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS INTERACTING WITH A POOL OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND PLACEMENT OF A FRONTAL ZONE TO HELP FOCUS
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IA AND NORTHEAST MO.

THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSING ALONG A WELL-DEFINED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INVOLVING THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY AND THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 06Z OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WHICH WILL BE IN
ADDITION TO LOCALLY A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY SEEN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT THIS TO BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42359111 42349074 41979060 41189106 40339154
            39639234 39699326 40389362 40949333 41499236
            42229153



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