Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 231937
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
337 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

...Unsettled and a little cool through at least Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...More of the same really as the cutoff upper level
low continues to send upper level disturbances our way from time
to time. Short/medium term models vary on the details/timing of
individual waves as well as when/if main upper trough exits off to
our east. At this point will continue with periodic shower
chances through Thursday night as per the blend but could foresee
activity hanging around through Friday as well. Another system
will bring more shower chances later in the weekend.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-240815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
337 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.31 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 51-56 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (310).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.12 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.13 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (670).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.17 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-240815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
337 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.18 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.23 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 1400, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 50-55 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.25 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-240815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
337 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.31 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (560).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.13 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (630).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-240815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
337 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.33 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (730).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.15 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.13 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (650).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-240815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
337 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.34 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.25 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH .
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (530).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.23 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND
50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

AJS


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