Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 230945
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
545 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...SEASONAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO EXIT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-232015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
545 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0900.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2100 UNTIL 0500. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 0500.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    PERIODS OF DRIZZLE UNTIL 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT...EXCEPT 89-94 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-232015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
545 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0900.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2100 UNTIL 0500. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 0500.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 0200. PATCHY
                    DRIZZLE AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    PERIODS OF DRIZZLE UNTIL 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT...EXCEPT 86-91 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-232015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
545 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0900.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN UNTIL 2100...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    0200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR PATCHY
                    DRIZZLE. PATCHY FOG AFTER 2100 UNTIL
                    0200...THEN AREAS OF FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44...EXCEPT 46-51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800. PERIODS
                    OF DRIZZLE AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT...EXCEPT 89-94 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-232015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
545 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0900.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN UNTIL 2100...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    0200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR PATCHY
                    DRIZZLE. PATCHY FOG AFTER 2100 UNTIL
                    0200...THEN AREAS OF FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 20 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800. PERIODS
                    OF DRIZZLE AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT...EXCEPT 89-94 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-232015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
545 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). AREAS OF DENSE
                    FOG UNTIL 0900.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2100 UNTIL 0500. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 0500.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    UNTIL 0800. PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    PERIODS OF DRIZZLE UNTIL 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 50. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

BERGER





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