Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 181900
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
300 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...Warmer this weekend...

.DISCUSSION...Warmer conditions are expected this weekend as high
pressure moves back into Michigan. Temperatures will rise to above
normal by Sunday and winds will be on the light side. Our next
chance for rain arrives Sunday night and Monday.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-190815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
300 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1900, then slight chance of rain
                    showers until 0300.
Min Temperature.....55-60...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 28 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (240).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 1100 until 1400.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......33 percent drier...except 20 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (770).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 71-76 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 2 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (920).
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-190815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
300 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2000.
Min Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (210).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 1100 until 1400.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (990).
Mixing Height.......6200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 73-78 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent...except 62-67 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1050).
Mixing Height.......6800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-190815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
300 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2000. chance of rain showers
                    after 2000 until 2100, then slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2300. Patchy fog after 0200.
Min Temperature.....55-60...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......28 percent drier...except 15 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (870).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62...except 65-70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 7 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (880).
Mixing Height.......5300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-190815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
300 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2200. Patchy fog after 0300.
Min Temperature.....54-59...except around 61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph becoming northwest around 3
                    mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0900.
Max Temperature.....76-81.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......25 percent drier...except 13 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1020).
Mixing Height.......6300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 73-78 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (910).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-190815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
300 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2200. Patchy fog after 0200.
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (130).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800.
Max Temperature.....75-80.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......26 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1310).
Mixing Height.......7000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1070).
Mixing Height.......6800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

KF



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