Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 230946
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
546 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...Wet and cool weather through the week...

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure over the mid Mississippi River valley
will advance up through the Great Lakes tonight through Tuesday.
This system will bring a prolonged period of heavier rainfall to
northern lower Michigan through tonight...with lighter showers
then continuing through at least Wednesday.

Gusty winds also develop tonight and continue through Tuesday
night.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-232200-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
546 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
                    Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....52-57.
   24 HR Trend......23 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........87-92 percent.
   24 HR Trend......50 percent wetter...except 31 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (200).
Mixing Height.......1800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.43-1.47 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain showers.
Min Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........1.18-1.55 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........75-80 percent...except 86-91 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier...except 9 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1100).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 24 to 33 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.20-0.61 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-232200-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
546 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
                    Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....55-60...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........86-91 percent.
   24 HR Trend......45 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (190).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.67-1.28 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain showers.
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 15 mph increasing to southeast
                    around 27 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.94-1.40 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........71-76 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 20 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1560).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 33 to 36 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.14-0.28 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-232200-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
546 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
                    Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....52-57.
   24 HR Trend......22 degrees cooler...except 15 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........86-91 percent.
   24 HR Trend......42 percent wetter...except 20 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (250).
Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.12-1.57 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain showers.
Min Temperature.....44-49...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 40 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (230).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 21 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.85-1.69 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........79-84 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1070).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 27 to 33 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.36-1.02 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-232200-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
546 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
                    Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....52-57.
   24 HR Trend......19 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........84-89 percent.
   24 HR Trend......27 percent wetter...except 20 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (230).
Mixing Height.......1800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.42-1.76 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain showers.
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler...except unchanged near the
                    coast.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (180).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........1.02-1.71 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........81-86 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1070).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 24 to 33 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.30-0.95 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-232200-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
546 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
                    Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......20 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......50 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (180).
Mixing Height.......1800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.97-1.70 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain showers.
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 12 mph shifting to the west
                    around 15 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........1.20-1.65 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers.
Max Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........78-83 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1200).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 27 to 33 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.21-0.41 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$




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