Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 201948
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
OCCASIONAL WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING
IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

EXPECT WINDS TO VEER FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW AS COLD FRONT PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...AND
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-210830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
348 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.15 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800. SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1700...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (760).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.17 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 8 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (520).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (500).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-210830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
348 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.16 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (790).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.23 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. AREAS OF FROST AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (730).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-210830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
348 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
                    9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.21 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1700...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1040).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.21 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43...EXCEPT 45-50 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 10 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-210830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
348 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AROUND 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.21 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1070).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.19 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
                    DECREASING TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (420).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-210830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
348 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.16 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 1700...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (870).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.23 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. AREAS OF FROST AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND
70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

AM





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