Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 241959
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
359 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

...UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...

NICE DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THICKENING CLOUDS...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS PICKING UP
ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.  WILL TURN BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES...EXPECTED SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-250815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
359 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.42-0.62 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    AROUND 33 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.24-0.43 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-250815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
359 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46...EXCEPT AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000. RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 85-90 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.34-0.52 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (2040).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.32-0.52 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-250815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
359 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51...EXCEPT 56-61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400 UNTIL 1700...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.40-0.68 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (2090).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.31 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-250815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
359 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 20 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 2000. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.37-0.59 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (2170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.26 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-250815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
359 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000. RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.32-0.44 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (2020).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.24-0.41 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS AROUND 60. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$





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