Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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802
FNUS54 KMRX 201951
FWFMRX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
251 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS TURNING UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
TOMORROW INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE FRIDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-212100-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
251 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           PCldy        PCldy        Cloudy       MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      42-47 (+6)   62-67 (-5)   44-49        59-64
RH % (24h trend)      85-90 (-5)   43-48 (+13)  91-96        55-60
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  S 10 G24                  LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  5 G18    S  9 G21     SE  8 G19    LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         NONE         showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     0            0            60           60
Precip duration                                 3            1
Precip begin                                    7 PM         Continuing
Precip end                                      Continuing   3 PM
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.10         0.12
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI                               4                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4900                      2500
Transport wnd (mph)                S 18                      NW  8
Dispersion                         45 Gen good               3 Very poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S 12 G24                  LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  7 G18    S 11 G21     SE 10 G19    LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the 60s.
South winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the lower 60s to mid 70s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Cooler. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. West winds up to
10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s.
Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-212100-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
251 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           PCldy        PCldy        Cloudy       MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      41-46 (+5)   58-63 (-7)   44-49        57-62
RH % (24h trend)      85-90 (-2)   45-50 (+11)  92-97        56-61
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  SE 15 G35                 SE  5 G21
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  9 G26    S 10 G28     SE 12 G28    LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         NONE         showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     0            0            60           60
Precip duration                                 3            1
Precip begin                                    7 PM         Continuing
Precip end                                      Continuing   3 PM
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.14         0.13
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI                               3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4800                      3300
Transport wnd (mph)                S 23                      NW 12
Dispersion                         40 Fair                   5 Very poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  SE 18 G35                 SE  6 G21
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE 11 G26    S 13 G28     SE 15 G28    LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s to lower
50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the 50s to
upper 60s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the 50s to upper 70s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Cooler. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Northwest winds up to
10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid
40s to upper 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s.
Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ072-074-212100-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
251 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           PCldy        PCldy        Cloudy       MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      43-48 (+5)   59-64 (-5)   46-51        58-63
RH % (24h trend)      76-81 (0)    45-50 (+8)   90-95        54-59
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  S 14 G35                  LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  7 G26     S 10 G32     SE 12 G36    LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     0            20           60           50
Precip duration                    1            3            1
Precip begin                       1 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing   3 PM
Precip amount         0.00         0.01         0.23         0.09
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI                               4                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 5000                      3900
Transport wnd (mph)                S 23                      NW  9
Dispersion                         36 Fair                   7 Poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S 18 G35                  S  5 G19
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S  9 G26     S 13 G32     SE 15 G36    LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 40s to lower 50s.
South winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the mid
50s to lower 70s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 40s to mid 50s.
South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the upper 50s to mid 70s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Cooler. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs
in the 40s to 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s
to lower 60s. South winds 5 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s.
Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

$$

TNZ087-102-212100-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
251 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           PCldy        MCldy        Cloudy       MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      46-51 (+11)  62-67 (-6)   49-54        63-68
RH % (24h trend)      80-85 (-8)   52-57 (+14)  89-94        54-59
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  SE 13 G31                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  7 G22     SE 12 G30    SE 11 G27    LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     0            20           60           50
Precip duration                    1            3            1
Precip begin                       1 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing   3 PM
Precip amount         0.00         0.01         0.26         0.05
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI                               3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4700                      3100
Transport wnd (mph)                SE 26                     NW  7
Dispersion                         59 Gen good               7 Poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  SE 16 G31                 SE  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S  9 G22     SE 15 G30    SE 14 G27    LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s to lower
50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 50s to lower 70s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 40s to upper 50s.
South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the lower 60s to mid 70s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Cooler. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in
the mid 40s to upper 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper
40s to lower 60s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

$$

NCZ060-061-212100-
Nantahala National Forest-
251 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

CLOUD COVER           PCldy        MCldy        Cloudy       MCldy
TEMP (24H TREND)      43-48 (+11)  60-65 (-8)   47-52        63-68
RH % (24H TREND)      88-93 (-3)   55-60 (+17)  90-95        53-58
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE 11 G29                 LGT/VAR
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  7 G19    SE 11 G27    SE 11 G26    LGT/VAR
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         showers      showers      showers
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            30           60           50
PRECIP DURATION                    1            3            1
PRECIP BEGIN                       1 PM         Continuing   Continuing
PRECIP END                         Continuing   Continuing   3 PM
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.01         0.29         0.06
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI                               3                         3
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5100                      3300
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE 23                     NW  7
DISPERSION                         57 Gen good               6 Very poor
MAX LVORI                          4                         5
33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE 15 G29                 SE  5
33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SE  8 G19    SE 14 G27    SE 14 G26    LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 40s to mid 50s.
Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 50s to lower 70s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the lower 60s to mid 70s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Cooler. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs
in the 40s to upper 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the upper 40s to
lower 60s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-212100-
East Tennessee District East-
251 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           PCldy        PCldy        Cloudy       MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      43-48 (+7)   64-69 (-4)   46-51        61-66
RH % (24h trend)      85-90 (-4)   43-48 (+8)   90-95        55-60
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  SE  9 G25                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      S  9 G24     SE  9 G22    LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         NONE         showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     0            0            60           60
Precip duration                                 3            1
Precip begin                                    7 PM         Continuing
Precip end                                      Continuing   3 PM
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.12         0.12
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI                               3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4600                      2400
Transport wnd (mph)                S 17                      W  8
Dispersion                         47 Gen good               6 Very poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  SE 11 G25                 LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  6 G16    S 11 G24     SE 11 G22    LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s to lower
50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the 60s to
lower 70s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the 60s to 70s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Cooler. Lows
in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Northwest winds
up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs in the mid 40s to
upper 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-212100-
East Tennessee District West-
251 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           PCldy        PCldy        Cloudy       MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      45-50 (+8)   64-69 (-5)   48-53        61-66
RH % (24h trend)      86-91 (-4)   48-53 (+11)  91-96        59-64
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  SE  6 G23                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      SE  8 G23    E  6 G18     LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     0            20           60           40
Precip duration                    1            3            1
Precip begin                       1 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing   11 AM
Precip amount         0.00         0.01         0.15         0.10
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI                               3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4300                      2600
Transport wnd (mph)                S 18                      NW  7
Dispersion                         48 Gen good               8 Poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  SE  8 G23                 LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  5        SE 10 G23    E  8 G18     LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows near 50. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the 60s to
lower 70s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. South winds
less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the 60s to mid 70s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Cooler. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in
the mid 40s to upper 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the 50s
to lower 60s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-212100-
Cumberland District South-
251 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 /151 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud cover           PCldy        MCldy        Cloudy       MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      48-53 (+9)   62-67 (-8)   51-56        64-69
RH % (24h trend)      83-88 (-7)   56-61 (+16)  90-95        57-62
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  SE  9 G26                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  5 G18    SE 11 G26    SE  5 G17    LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     0            40           60           30
Precip duration                    1            3            1
Precip begin                       1 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing   11 AM
Precip amount         0.00         0.02         0.20         0.04
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI                               3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4300                      2800
Transport wnd (mph)                S 26                      N  6
Dispersion                         72 Good                   8 Poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  SE 11 G26                 LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  7 G18    SE 13 G26    SE  7 G17    LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Highs near
70. South winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. South
winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Cooler. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in
the 40s to upper 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the 50s
to lower 60s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

$$



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