Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 231745
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Nassawango Units 2 & 16 Prescribed fire...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1245 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EST on February 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND RESULTS IN WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MAXIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 90-95 PERCENT RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 PERCENT. A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH COOL DRY AND BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly to mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming south 6 to 10 mph with
                    gusts up to 20 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......5 percent.
Mixing height.......300 ft...increasing to 2500 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 14 mph...increasing to 15 to 17 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............70  60  45  41  40  38  35  35  36  36  36
Weather cov.........PTY
Weather type........FOG
Tstm cov............
Temp................55  58  62  66  68  70  71  72  73  73  69
RH..................92  83  70  63  59  55  53  51  50  50  55
20 FT wind dir......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd......2   3   5   5   6   7   8   8   8   7   6
20 FT wind gust.....5   5   8   11  15  15  20  20  20  20  15
Mix hgt (kft).......0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.4
Transp wind dir.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.....5   5   6   7   10  14  16  17  17  17  15
LVORI...............6   5   4   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.................5   4   4   6   15  29  33  35  35  33  27
Chc of pcpn (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Haines index........3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....1   2   2   7   14  25  34  37  37  30  18

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Mixing height.......300-800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............37  37  38  38  39  40  40  41  42  43  44  44
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................68  64  62  61  59  58  57  56  56  55  54  53
RH..................61  67  72  72  78  80  83  86  86  90  93  93
20 FT wind dir......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd......6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.....15  15  15  10  10  10              5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft).......0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.....12  9   9   9   10  10  9   9   8   7   6   5
LVORI...............3   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6
ADI.................8   6   6   6   7   7   4   6   5   5   4   3
Chc of pcpn (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Haines index........4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/1000....9   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). A chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 14 mph with gusts up to 25
                    mph...becoming southwest 13 to 15 mph with
                    gusts up to 30 mph late. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL...increasing to 2700-3100 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 14 mph...increasing to 15 to 18 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............45     49     56     60     65     72
Weather cov.........                     CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type........NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov............                     CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp................53     56     62     66     69     69
RH..................93     86     72     68     63     66
20 ft wind..........S 4    S 5    S 7    S 10   S 10   S 11
20 ft wind gust.....5      15     20     25     25     30
Mix hgt (ft)........300    300    300    2100   3100   3000
Transport wind......S 5    S 6    S 10   S 16   S 18   S 16
LVORI...............6      5      3      3      1      3
ADI.................3      5      12     32     44     40
Chc of pcpn (%).....10     10     10     50     50     50
Haines index........4      4      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/1000....1      1      2      30     49     44

$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...Gabriel Cahalan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702672.1/AKQ
.EMAIL gcahalan@tnc.org



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