Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FNUS71 KALY 211051
FWSALY

SPOT FORECAST FOR FOR CATHEDRAL RX...ALBANY PINE BUSH PRESERVE COMMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0710 EDT ON MAY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 70 TO 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
WILL COORDINATE WITH USERS ON POSSIBLE HEADLINES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 8900-9000 FT
                    AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (9900-51100 KNOT-FT).

TIME (EDT)          7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............64     62     55     57     60     65
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................42     48     59     64     67     68
RH..................67     56     39     31     28     28
20 FT WIND..........W 3    W 3    SW 3   SW 4   SW 5   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........1600   1600   4600   8900   8900   9000
CWR.................0      0      0      0      0      0
VRATE KT-FT/1000....51     51     51     51     51     51

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
MAX HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-800 FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (8900-51100 KNOT-FT).

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............69     79     80     82     83     66
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................66     61     55     52     48     46
RH..................30     36     49     59     68     73
20 FT WIND..........SW 5   SW 4   SW 3   SW 2   W 2    SW 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........9000   6000   3600   3600   800    300
CWR.................0      10     10     10     10     10
VRATE KT-FT/1000....51     9      9      9      9      9

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING WEST 8 TO 12 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO NORTHWEST AROUND 23 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7500-7900 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8900 KNOT-FT)...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (107700 KNOT-FT).

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............43     25     36     50     61     49
WEATHER COV.........                     S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................46     51     57     62     66     67
RH..................76     68     55     44     36     32
20 FT WIND..........SW 2   W 5    W 5    W 8    NW 13  NW 14
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      10     15     20     30     30
MIX HGT (FT)........300    2000   7900   7900   7500   7900
CWR.................10     10     10     20     20     10
VRATE KT-FT/1000....9      108    108    108    108    108

$$
FORECASTER...JPV
REQUESTED BY...TYLER BRIGGS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150521.CATHE.01/ALY



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