Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 111249
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Hardy Grade...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
749 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on December 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Fast moving low pressure system will move through
the region today bringing a period of light snow and light
accumulations to all areas. System exits tonight with winds
turning sharply northwest. This will drag arctic air into the
Great Lakes that will stick around for the next few days.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Snow showers likely in
                    the morning, then snow showers in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........16 at ignition...Max 24.
RH..................77 percent at ignition...Min 67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 5 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2100-2900
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 8 mph shifting to the south 12
                    to 15 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Vent rate...........Fair /200 at ignition. Max...good /400/.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Weather cov.....        LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY DEF
Weather type....        SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
Temp............16  17  18  20  21  22  23  23  24
RH..............77  77  80  81  81  84  84  88  84
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  15  15  15  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   12  13  14  14  14  15  15  15
Haines index....3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
VRate/100.......2   3   4   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Snow showers in the
                    evening, then snow showers likely after
                    midnight.
Temperature.........Min 12.
RH..................Max 92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 14 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......1900-3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 17 mph increasing to northwest
                    24 to 32 mph after midnight, then increasing to
                    35 to 36 mph early in the morning.
Vent rate...........Fair to excellent (200-1300).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........100 100 100 99  99  96  94  91  92  92  93  89
Weather cov.....DEF LKY DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
Temp............24  23  24  26  26  25  24  23  21  18  16  15
RH..............84  92  92  88  88  88  84  81  77  80  80  77
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   6   9   11  11  13  14  14
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  15  20  20  20  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.15  15  14  12  13  17  24  30  32  35  35  36
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate/100.......3   3   3   2   3   5   8   11  13  13  13  13

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of snow
                    showers.
Temperature.........Max 15.
RH..................Min 58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 14 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Mixing height.......3500-3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 31 to 36 mph.
Vent rate...........Excellent (1100).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........85     82     85     88     89     90
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............15     12     9      12     14     12
RH..............73     73     76     63     58     63
20 ft wind......NW 14  NW 12  NW 12  NW 12  NW 11  NW 10
20 ft wind gust.25     30     25     30     25     20
Mix hgt (ft)....3700   3600   3500   3800   3900   3700
Transport wind..NW 36  NW 36  NW 35  N 33   N 32   NW 31
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate/100.......13     13     12     13     12     11

$$
Forecaster...Monique Runyan
Requested by...Travis Wiltse
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719811.0/APX



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