Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 210120
FWSBOU

Spot Forecast for Bear Gultch...USFS
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
720 PM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1900 MDT on July 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Moist conditions should continue tonight with RH rising from 50
to 60 percent by sunrise. There is a good chance of rain showers
this evening on the fire, with only a slight chance of lightning
with the showers. Expect light west winds this evening that may pick up
out of the west 10-15 mph with any rain showers that impact the
area. On Friday minimum relative humidity should be around 30%
with light northwest winds through midday, shifting to northwest
at 10-15 mph by early afternoon. Another chance of thunderstorms
for Friday afternoon after 2 PM.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy until 2400, then partly
                    cloudy(40-50%). Scattered thunderstorms until
                    2300, then isolated thunderstorms until 0300.
CWR.................20 percent decreasing to 0 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2300, then 3 until 0200, then 2 until
                    0300, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........62%.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 4-5 mph until 2100, then west 6-7
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms until 0300.
Mixing height.......2100-3000 ft AGL until 2100, then 1000-1100 ft
                    AGL until 2400, then Below 1000 FT AGL until
                    0100, then 1000-1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10-15 mph until 2400, then west.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 2000, then poor.
Haines Index........4 low.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny until 0900, then partly
                    cloudy(35-45%) until 1200, then mostly cloudy.
                    Scattered thunderstorms after 1200.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 20 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........33%.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6-12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms after 1200.
Mixing height.......1400-2400 ft AGL until 0800, then 4700-5700 ft
                    AGL until 1000, then 8100-9100 ft AGL until
                    1200, then 11100 ft AGL until 1300, then 8200
                    ft AGL until 1400, then 5300 ft AGL until 1500,
                    then 2300-3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10-15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900, then fair until 1100, then
                    good until 1200, then fair until 1300, then
                    good until 1400, then fair until 1500, then
                    poor until 1700, then fair.
Haines Index........3 very low.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms until
                    2400, then slight chance of rain showers.
CWR.................15 percent decreasing to 5 percent after
                    midnight.
LAL.................4 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........63%.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 4-5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms until 2400.
Mixing height.......2900-3900 ft AGL until 2400, then 1400-2400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10-15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 2200, then poor.
Haines Index........3 very low.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy(60-65%). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 1200, then chance of
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................3 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........37%.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 4-5 mph until 1200, then east.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2000-3000 ft AGL until 0800. 9200-10100 ft AGL
                    after 1100.
Transport winds.....North 10-15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0800, then good until 0900, then
                    very good until 1100, then good until 1500,
                    then fair.
Haines Index........2 very low.


Fire Weather Table for Bear Gultch.

+++  Data in the following table has been sampled directly from the
     forecast database.  Values in the table may vary slightly from
     information in the narrative forecast.  Feedback welcome.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

07/20-19 71 40 18 76 48 SSE  5  5 3 4         3043   S 15 40931  F
07/20-20 70 32 11 72 55  SW  5  5 3 4         2081   S 15 26565 P
07/20-21 70 32 11 69 57 WSW  6  6 3 4         1120 SSW 14 13523 P
07/20-22 66 31 10 68 57   W  6  6 3 4         1053 SSW 13 11592 P
07/20-23 61 22  4 67 56   W  6  6 3 3          986 WSW 12  9803 P
07/21-00 47 17  3 66 56   W  6  6 3 3          919   W 10  8157 P
07/21-01 47 16  3 66 56 WNW  6  6 3 3         1035   W  9  8537 P
07/21-02 47 14  3 65 58 WNW  6  6 4 2         1192 WNW  8  8441 P
07/21-03 40  4  1 64 60 WNW  7  7 3 1         1266 WNW  8  9254 P
07/21-04 40  4  1 62 62 WNW  7  7 3 1         1198 WNW  9  9537 P
07/21-05 40  4  1 62 62   W  7  7 3 1         1130 WNW 10  9732 P
07/21-06 25  0  0 64 54   W  7  7 3 1         1062 WNW 10  9839 P
07/21-07 25  0  0 68 51   W  6  6 3 1         2715 WNW 10 24781 P
07/21-08 25  0  0 74 43 WNW  5  5 3 1         4367 WNW 10 39284 P
07/21-09 40  5  1 79 38 WNW  5  5 3 1         6019  NW 10 53350  F
07/21-10 40  5  1 82 34  NW  5  5 3 1         7727  NW  9 58918  F
07/21-11 40  5  1 83 33   N  6  6 3 1         9435 NNW  7 60257   G
07/21-12 62 41 18 82 34 NNE  7  7 3 4        11143 NNW  6 57367  F
07/21-13 62 41 18 79 38   N  9  9 3 4         8204  NW  9 62585   G
07/21-14 62 41 18 75 43  NW 10 16 3 4         5266 WNW 12 53229  F
07/21-15 79 41 18 73 46 WNW 12 17 3 4         2328 WNW 15 29300 P
07/21-16 79 41 18 72 48 WNW 10 15 3 4         2830 WNW 15 37900 P
07/21-17 79 41 18 72 46 WNW  8  8 3 4         3333  NW 16 47309  F
07/21-18 81 35 13 73 44  NW  5  5 3 4         3835  NW 17 59320  F
07/21-19 81 35 13 71 48 WNW  5  5 3 4         3847  NW 16 52930  F
07/21-20 81 35 13 68 54 WNW  5  5 2 4         3859 WNW 14 46499  F
07/21-21 81 35 13 66 58 WNW  5  5 2 4         3871   W 12 40026  F
07/21-22 81 35 13 65 60 WNW  5  5 2 4         3391   W 12 33214 P
07/21-23 81 35 13 65 59   W  6  6 2 4         2911 WSW 10 26925 P
07/22-00 68 13  3 65 58   W  6  6 2 1         2431  SW 10 21160 P
07/22-01 68 13  3 65 58   W  6  6 2 1         2046 WSW  9 15467 P
07/22-02 68 13  3 64 61 WNW  5  5 2 1         1660 WNW  7 10655 P
07/22-03 68 13  3 63 63 WNW  5  5 2 1         1274  NW  6  6724 P
07/22-04 68 13  3 62 63 WNW  5  5 2 1         1364  NW  6  7438 P
07/22-05 68 13  3 61 63  NW  6  6 2 1         1453  NW  7  8185 P
07/22-06 63 22  4 62 60  NW  6  6 2 3         1543  NW  7  8962 P
07/22-07 63 22  4 66 53  NW  5  5 2 3         3545 NNW  9 30004 P
07/22-08 63 22  4 70 48 NNW  5  5 2 3         5547 NNW 13 61677   G
07/22-09 63 22  4 74 43   N  3  3 2 3         7549   N 16103980    V
07/22-10 63 22  4 77 40   N  3  3 2 3         8383   N 14101976    V
07/22-11 63 22  4 78 39 ENE  3  3 2 3         9216   N 13 97290   G
07/22-12 64 27  7 78 39   E  3  3 2 4        10050   N 10 89921   G
07/22-13 64 27  7 78 39   E  3  3 2 4        10076   N  9 79867   G
07/22-14 64 27  7 78 38 ESE  5  5 2 4        10101   N  8 69760   G
07/22-15 64 27  7 78 38 ESE  5  5 2 4        10127   N  7 59600  F
07/22-16 64 27  7 78 37 ESE  5  5 2 4         9930   N  7 59178  F
07/22-17 64 27  7 78 37  SE  6  6 2 4         9733   N  7 58727  F
07/22-18 48 10  2 77 39  SE  6  6 2 2         9535   N  7 58246  F
07/22-19 48 10  2 74 43  SE  6  6 2 2         8486 NNE  6 44257  F
07/22-20 48 10  2 70 49 SSE  6  6 2 2         7438  NE  5 32142 P
07/22-21 48 10  2 67 54 SSE  5  5 2 2         6389 ENE  3 21901 P
07/22-22 48 10  2 66 57   S  3  3 2 2         5601   E  5 20604 P
07/22-23 48 10  2 65 59 SSW  2  2 2 2         4814 ESE  5 18913 P
07/23-00 41  4  1 64 60   CALM  1 2 1         4027  SE  5 16828 P
07/23-01 41  4  1 63 61   CALM  1 2 1         3400 SSE  6 16540 P
07/23-02 41  4  1 62 62   CALM  1 2 1         2774   S  7 15392 P
07/23-03 41  4  1 60 65   W  2  2 2 1         2147   S  7 13386 P
07/23-04 41  4  1 59 65   W  2  2 2 1         1986   S  7 11253 P
07/23-05 41  4  1 58 67   W  3  3 2 1         1825 SSW  6  9303 P
07/23-06 28  6  1 59 64 WNW  3  3 2 1         1664  SW  6  7536 P
07/23-07 28  6  1 63 57 WSW  3  3 2 1         3419 SSW  5 14525 P
07/23-08 28  6  1 67 51 SSE  3  3 2 1         5174   S  5 20531 P
07/23-09 28  6  1 71 46 ESE  3  3 2 1         6930   S  5 25553 P
07/23-10 28  6  1 73 44 ESE  5  5 2 1         7594   S  5 28433 P
07/23-11 28  6  1 74 43 ESE  5  5 2 1         8259   S  5 31389 P
07/23-12 37 16  3 74 43 ESE  6  6 2 3         8923   S  5 34420 P
07/23-13 37 16  3 75 41  SE  7  7 2 3         9327   S  5 40571  F
07/23-14 37 16  3 76 38  SE  7  7 3 3         9730   S  6 47120  F
07/23-15 37 16  3 77 36  SE  7  7 3 3        10134   S  6 54066  F
07/23-16 37 16  3 78 35  SE  7  7 3 3         9649   S  7 57985  F
07/23-17 37 16  3 78 35  SE  6  6 3 3         9164   S  8 61250   G
07/23-18 38  8  2 76 37  SE  6  6 3 1         8679   S  8 63861   G

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...SCHLATTER
REQUESTED BY...Christopher Mizenko
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1713088.0/BOU


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