Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 161439
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR FRAZIER DRAFT...PA GAME COMMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1039 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST IGNITION TIME TBD...APRIL 17TH OR 18TH.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER IN CENTRAL PA.

AFTER YESTERDAYS RAINFALL...10-HR FINE FUEL MOISTURE IS ABOVE
10 PERCENT. SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
5-15 MPH. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 30 PCT ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP RH/S ABOVE
30 PCT ON FRIDAY.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-3000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3500-4500 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............36  36  20  20  20  20  20  20  23  23  23  23
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................27  26  31  35  38  42  44  46  48  50  52  49
RH..................66  70  58  50  43  37  34  31  29  28  26  29
20 FT WIND DIR......E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......6   7   7   8   9   10  12  12  12  12  13  13
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.2 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  16  18  20  21  21  21  21  21  22  22  22
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   4

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 31.
MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3500 FT AGL IN THE EVENING...DECREASING TO
                    800-1000 FT AFTER 8 PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............23  23  38  38  38  38  38  38  66  66  66  66
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................47  45  44  43  42  41  40  39  38  37  36  34
RH..................32  36  38  41  45  48  52  56  60  64  68  72
20 FT WIND DIR......SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......12  12  10  9   9   8   7   6   6   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....20  20  20  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.5 2.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....20  17  14  15  16  17  17  17  16  15  14  13
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............66  66  56  56  56  56  56  56  56  56  56  56
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................33  32  37  40  43  46  48  50  52  53  55  53
RH..................76  79  67  60  54  48  46  44  42  40  37  41
20 FT WIND DIR......SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/STEINBUGL
REQUESTED BY...THOMAS M  SMITH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140416.FRAZI.01/CTP



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