Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 261328
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for SGL 197 WSG Stands...PA Game Commission
National Weather Service State College PA
928 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 26.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...
Cloudy and damp conditions this morning will give way to somewhat
drier conditions this afternoon as high pressure aloft builds
overhead. Min RH will drop to 53 percent this afternoon as
temperatures rise to the mid 70s and light and variable winds
turn to the south at 4 to 7 mph. Good RH recovery will be seen
tonight with Max RH reaching around 85%.

A disturbance aloft and warm frontal boundary at the surface
will lift northeast across the prescribed area on Thursday,
bringing a good chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening. A few of the thunderstorms could
contain gusty winds and hail. Minimum RH Thursday will drop to
between 40 and 45 percent...and locally gusty/erratic winds will
occur near thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon and evening.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Areas of fog
                    early in the morning...then patchy fog early in
                    the morning. Patchy drizzle early in the
                    morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming south 5 to
                    6 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100-3000 ft AGL...increasing to 3100-3300 ft
                    AGL late.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5...or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........68  63  58  53  48  45  44  41  39
Weather cov.....PTY PTY
Weather type....DZF DZF
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............57  60  63  65  68  70  72  73  74
RH..............83  78  72  70  63  61  57  55  53
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.1
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   9   9   9   10  10  12  13  14
Haines index....3   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......600-2400 ft AGL...decreasing to 300-500 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5...or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........36  33  32  31  30  29  28  27  26  26  24  23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............72  71  69  67  66  64  63  62  61  61  60  60
RH..............57  57  61  65  68  73  75  78  81  81  84  84
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  13  12  10  9   9   12  14  16  16  15  15
Haines index....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400...then >25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-2000 ft AGL...increasing to 2300-3900 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........22  21  20  25  34  43  53  62  67  68  71  74
Weather cov.....                                LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                LKY LKY LKY LKY
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   2   4   5   5   5   5
Temp............61  61  62  66  69  73  75  77  78  77  76  76
RH..............81  81  78  68  61  53  50  45  43  45  48  48
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   8   8   9   9   10  10  9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  20  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.1 3.9 3.7 3.0 2.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.16  18  20  18  18  17  18  21  22  22  20  18
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/DeVoir
Requested by...Shayne Hoachlander
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707796.0/CTP
.EMAIL shoachland@pa.gov



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