Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FNUS75 KCYS 251416
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR HAPPY JACK FIRE...FS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
816 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0747 MDT ON JULY 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A CLEAR START THIS MORNING WITH POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH. HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY
BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 PERCENT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
A LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...ALTHOUGH THINK THAT
THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE FARTHER EAST OVER THE PLAINS. BUT...CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY. IF SHOWERS AND/OR
WEAK STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP NR THE BURN SITE TODAY...STRONG
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD GIVEN THE VERY DRY
SURFACE CONDITIONS. MUCH OF THE SAME ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN TODAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (ZERO PERCENT) UNTIL 1300...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1400-1800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-12 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH UNTIL 1400...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS 1400-1800.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 5 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12600 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST/NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT (116300-203800 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2200...THEN
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-56.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 20 MPH.
CWR.................ZERO PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD BECOMING POOR (1800-95200 KNOT-FT).

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST AT 8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH UNTIL
                    1000...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
                    TO 20 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13700 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (85700-181200 KNOT-FT).

$$

FORECASTER...HAHN
REQUESTED BY...TIM DOWNHAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160725.HAPPY.01/CYS


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