Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FNUS73 KDMX 300944
FWSDMX

SPOT FORECAST FOR LAKE ICARIA...IOWA DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
444 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MARCH 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AN INITIAL OBSERVATION AT IGNITION AND A MID BURN OBSERVATION ARE REQUIRED...
PLEASE RELAY THEM TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
WARM RAPIDLY.  EXPECTED WINDS TO BE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
BY MID AFTERNOON.  EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A DEEP MIXED LAYER AND NEARLY CURED GRASS.  CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND WINDS SUBSIDE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 73.
RH..................44 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 19 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO
                    22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 26 TO 31
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1000-40300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (157200-200500 KNOT-FT).
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 12 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 15
                    MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 22 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........32  32  30  29  30  30  31  31
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............52  59  64  68  71  73  73  72
RH..............44  34  28  24  21  19  19  21
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..12  15  17  20  21  22  22  20
20 FT WIND GUST.15  20  25  30  30  30  30  30
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
EYE LVL WND SPD.9   11  12  14  15  16  16  14
EYE LVL WND GST.15  20  25  30  30  30  30  30
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 2.6 4.4 6.3 6.8 7.2 7.7 6.9
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
MIXNG WIND SPD..14  18  23  26  29  31  30  26
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 39.
RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO
                    6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 13 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (40100-110900 KNOT-FT)
                    DECREASING TO POOR TO FAIR (1100-17700 KNOT-FT)
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO
                    6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
SKY (%).........33        29        23        15
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............70        57        49        44
RH..............24        47        66        79
20 FT WIND......SW 16G25  SW 10G15  W 8G10    NW 5
EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 11G25  SW 7G15   W 6G10    NW 4G5
MIX HGT (FT)....6000      1900      300       300
MIXNG WIND......SW 21     SW 10     W 8       NW 7
HAINES INDEX....4         5         5         4

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 74.
RH..................MIN 25 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1000-35700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    GOOD TO EXCELLENT (40800-78500 KNOT-FT) IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
SKY (%).........15           5            8
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE         NONE         NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............39           57           73
RH..............92           59           29
20 FT WIND......N 6          NE 6G10      NW 5
EYE LEVEL WIND..N 4G5        NE 4G10      NW 4G5
MIX HGT (FT)....300          1500         8200
MIXNG WIND......N 5          NE 10        NW 10
HAINES INDEX....4            4            4

$$
FORECASTER...COGIL
REQUESTED BY...NATURAL RESOURCE TECH 2
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150330.LAKEI.01/DMX


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