Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
453
FNUS73 KEAX 181255
FWSEAX

Spot Forecast for Seat CA Prescribed Fire...Missouri Department of Conservation
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
755 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 CDT on August 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at 1-800-438-0596, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Favorable conditions for prescribed fire will occur this morning and
early this afternoon as dry weather will persist through these time
frames. Expect developing showers and storms later this afternoon
as a cold front begins moving south over the region. For now, the
most concentrated activity is expected to occur east of the burn
location, however an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out later
this afternoon. Before then, steep low-level lapse rates combined
with inversion heights of 4000-5000 ft should allow for moderately
good smoke dispersion thanks to transport winds of 8-17 mph. Showers
and storms will come to an end by early evening with dry weather
expected later tonight and tomorrow as high pressure returns to the
area.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1900 ft AGL increasing to 4900-5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 17 mph shifting to the west 18
                    to 23 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........23  30  37  43  50  48  45  43  45  48  50  45
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  0
Temp............61  61  65  70  75  77  80  82  83  84  85  84
RH..............90  93  84  73  64  62  58  56  55  55  53  55
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   S   S   S   S   SW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   3   4   5   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5       10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 1.0 1.9 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.3
Transp wind dir.W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.8   16  17  18  21  22  23  23  23  23  22  22
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   6   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
                    Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late
                    in the evening.
CWR.................3 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the evening.
Mixing height.......3300-5100 ft AGL decreasing to 0-100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 21 to 28 mph decreasing to 14 to 17
                    mph early in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........41  36  30  24  18  18  18  18  18  17  17  17
Weather cov.....SCH             SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW              RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH             SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............82  81  77  74  72  70  68  66  65  64  63  62
RH..............61  63  69  76  79  81  84  87  90  90  93  97
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.10          5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...5.1 4.7 4.1 3.3 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.22  21  23  24  26  28  28  28  25  22  17  14
Haines index....4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
Forecaster...Gitro
Requested by...Jesse Kamps
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1714508.0/EAX
.EMAIL jesse.kamps@mdc.mo.gov



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.