Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 011622
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Seven Cabins...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
922 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1000 MST on March 01.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Much lighter winds with slightly cooler temperatures compared
to yesterday.  Winds will not be a big concern for the next
several days, but relative humidities will be dropping into
the lower to mid teens with poor to good vent rates.
Temperatures will start to warm a little more significantly
over the weekend but winds will also start to increase.

&&

...Percentages shown in the sky/weather portion reflect
sky cover amount...

...Mean elevations used to obtain mixing heights as follows:
Zone 110 - Reserve   (5900 ft)
Zone 111 - Deming    (4300 ft)
Zone 112 - Las Cruces(3900 ft)
Zone 113 - Ruidoso   (6900 ft)

Ventilation categories are determined by criteria established
by the state of New Mexico.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 FT)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL increasing to 6100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 knots.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (64500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........5      6      6      6
WEATHER COV.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1
TEMP............42     47     51     49
RH..............32     16     14     14
20 FT WIND......NW 5   NW 5   N 5    NW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.15     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....3900   6100   6100   6100
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 10  W 11   W 11   W 11
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      4
VENT RATE.......Fair   Good   Good   Good

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 26.
Max humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 FT)........Downslope 2 to 7 mph.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM
SKY (%).........0      0      0      3      3      3
WEATHER COV.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
TEMP............46     38     36     32     30     28
RH..............15     20     23     27     25     27
20 FT WIND......W 5    W 4    W 3    W 3    W 2    W 2
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     5      5      5      5
HAINES INDEX....4      4      3      2      2      2

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........16 percent.
Wind (20 FT)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph early
                    in the afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL increasing to 6100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 7 knots.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (29950 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      5 AM      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM
SKY (%).........5         5         11        11
WEATHER COV.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
TEMP............29        33        47        53
RH..............34        30        18        16
20 FT WIND......W 2G5     NW 1      E 2G5     SE 5G10
MIX HGT (FT)....3200      3200      7100      7100
TRANSPORT WIND..W 7       W 7       NW 6      NW 6
HAINES INDEX....2         3         3         2
VENT RATE.......Poor      Poor      Fair      Fair

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Seven Cabins WX
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1702936.3/EPZ
.EMAIL nmadc@fs.fed.us


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