Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 181521
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR PERK RX...NM-LCD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
921 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0925 MDT ON MAY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH
ALLOWING FOR GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
BURN AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 PM AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG. DRIER AIR UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO THE
AREA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER QUICK MOISTURE SURGE MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THIS MORNING...THEN
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THIS AFTERNOON.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 22 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10500-12300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 25 KNOTS.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (280000 KT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). NUMEROUS
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................70 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-49.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO
                    12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 KNOTS.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST-SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO
                    20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100-6500 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 25 KNOTS.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (155000 KT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...GRZYWACZ
REQUESTED BY...NM-ADC
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150518.PERKR.02/EPZ





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