Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FNUS75 KGJT 031638
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR PIPE CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
938 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MST ON MARCH 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT  WILL MOVE OVER THE BURN SITE
TODAY BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOWFALL WILL PICK
UP AND WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BURN SITE WITH 1 TO
3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. WHILE SMOKE DISPERSAL GIVEN IS POOR...I EXPECT GOOD TO
EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL AFTER 12PM DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CAUSE TURBULENT MIXING. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
                    UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTERED SNOW
                    SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....28-33 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 15 TO
                    20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR EXCEPT GOOD TO EXCELLENT UNDER AND NEAR
                    ANY SHOWERS AND SNOWFALL.
CLEARING INDEX......100 INCREASING TO 650.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SNOW
                    SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW
                    SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...ASHLEY NATIONAL FOREST
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150303.PIPEC.01/GJT



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