Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FNUS74 KHUN 261045
FWSHUN

Spot Forecast for Caney Creek...USFS
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
445 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CST on February 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will build into the area on Sunday and keep winds
light and skies clear. Mixing height will start out around 400 feet
and increase to around 2200 feet in the afternoon. It will be very
dry with relative humidity values dropping to between 24 and 27
percent. Dispersion values will improve through the day with
fair values expected by the afternoon. Winds will shift from the
east at less than 4 mph to the south-southeast around 5 mph with
gusts up to 10 mph between noon and 3 PM.

The high quickly shifts east on Sunday afternoon/evening, as a storm
system approaches from the west Sunday night into Monday. Expect
isolated to widely scattered showers on Sunday night after midnight
to increase in coverage Monday morning west of I-65 especially.

This area of rain will push east during the day on Monday. No
thunderstorms are expected until Monday night into Tuesday. More
southerly winds are expected to develop by Sunday night and increase
in strength. Southerly winds 6 to 11 mph with gusts to around 15 mph
are expected on Monday afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 58-61.
Min humidity........25-28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming south around 5 mph with gusts
                    to 10 mph early in the afternoon...then becoming light.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL...increasing to 2200-2500 ft
                    AGL early.
Transport winds.....South 1 to 10 mph.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (CST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............31  37  43  48  53  56  59  60  59  58
RH..............70  54  43  35  29  28  25  25  27  29
20 FT WIND DIR..090 100 110 130 150 150 160 160 160 150
20 FT WIND SPD..3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.080 090 100 120 130 140 160 170 170 160
TRANSP WIND SPD.8   9   9   7   6   6   7   8   9   10
DISPERSION IDX..4   4   4   12  11  13  19  25  28  29
LVORI...........5   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
CHC OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers after midnight.
Min temperature.....44-47.
Max humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
CWR.................0 percent...increasing to 20 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Mixing height.......400-1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 16 mph...becoming east around 6
                    mph late.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  CDY CDY MC
WEATHER COV.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............56  54  52  51  50  49  48  48  47  46  46  45
RH..............33  37  39  42  46  47  51  52  56  57  60  61
20 FT WIND DIR..140 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 140
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.150 150 150 150 160 160 160 170 170 170 150 100
TRANSP WIND SPD.12  13  13  14  15  16  16  15  14  12  9   6
DISPERSION IDX..27  22  16  12  11  11  11  10  9   8   6   4
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   20  20  20  20  20  20
CHC OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   20  20  20  20  20  20

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). A chance of showers
                    early in the morning...then showers likely late
                    in the morning. A chance of showers in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 61-63.
Min humidity........55-60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with gust to 11-16 mph in the afternoon.
CWR.................50 percent...increasing to 70 percent in the
                    morning...then decreasing to 50 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......300-1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 1 to 10 mph...increasing to 12 to 14
                    mph in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............45     48     54     58     61     61
RH..............65     65     59     57     56     60
20 FT WIND DIR..130    140    140    160    150    150
20 FT WIND SPD..5      6      7      6      6      6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     15     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....300    600    800    1100   1100   1000
TRANSPORT WIND..E 3    E 1    SE 6   SE 14  SE 13  SE 12
DISPERSION IDX..2      1      5      19     18     15
LVORI...........3      3      3      2      2      2
CWR.............50     50     70     50     50     50
CHC OF PCPN (%).50     50     70     50     50     50
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Weber
Requested by...Kerry
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702896.1/HUN
.EMAIL kerryclark@fs.fed.us



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