Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FNUS72 KILM 191307
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTLE ISLAND...TNC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
907 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON AUGUST 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED BUT COOLER CONDITIONS.

FOR THE FIRE LOCATION...THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD BRING VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS BY 100-200 PM...POTENTIALLY SHIFTING FROM
W-WSW TO A S-SSW DIRECTION WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE MIDDLE
AND LATE AFTERNOON.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.

FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...AND SEA BREEZE PASSAGE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2900-4800 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 14 MPH.
MAX LVORI...........6.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (4370-51519 MPH-FT).

TIME (EDT)          11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............60     60     62     66
WEATHER COV.........       S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............       S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP................88     89     90     89
RH..................62     60     60     64
20 FT WIND..........W 6    SW 6   SW 7   SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........2000   3800   4800   4100
TRANSPORT WIND......W 14   W 13   W 10   W 9
LVORI...............1      3      3      1
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...26     47     50     38

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-700 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 12 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (804-30359 MPH-FT).

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............68     72     71     70     70     63
WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
TEMP................88     84     82     80     79     78
RH..................67     77     82     86     88     89
20 FT WIND..........SW 6   SW 6   W 5    W 4    W 3    NW 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     10     5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........3100   700    200    200    300    200
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 10  SW 12  W 8    W 5    W 5    NW 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...30     8      2      1      1      1

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST AROUND
                    5 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4500-5600 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (690-19550 MPH-FT).

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............57     51     33     35     37     36
WEATHER COV.........                            S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                            S CHC  S CHC
TEMP................77     78     86     92     95     95
RH..................91     88     64     53     50     50
20 FT WIND..........NW 2   NW 2   W 4    W 4    W 3    W 3
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      10     10     5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........200    300    1500   3500   5200   5400
TRANSPORT WIND......NW 5   N 6    N 5    N 3    NW 3   SW 2
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...1      2      6      11     20     13

$$
FORECASTER...COLBY
REQUESTED BY...ANGIE CARL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140819.LITTL.01/ILM






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