Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FNUS72 KJAX 220054
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR NASSAU FIRE...FHP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
754 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2100 EST ON JANUARY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (904) 741-4370, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.

...HIGH DISPERSIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. FOR SUNDAY...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BRINGING ROUNDS OF STORMS TO
THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SUNDAY. SUSTAINED
WINDSWILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. STRONG
TRANSPORTWINDS AND MIXING WILL PROMOTE HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS
SUNDAY ANDMONDAY. MIN RH`S WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND A FEW
                    THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING
                    ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......NEAR 100 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 18 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....35 DECREASING TO 13.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EST)      8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........100 90  88  85  80  80  81  82  83  87
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............63  65  65  67  68  68  67  67  66  66
RH..............100 99  98  90  87  87  93  90  93  93
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   7   7   7   7   8   8   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
MIXNG WIND SPD..14  15  16  16  16  15  14  14  13  13
DISPERSION IDX..13  13  14  14  14  13  13  12  11  11
LVORI...........3   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   6
CHC OF PCPN (%).90  80  60  60  50  50  40  40  40  40

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 0700...THEN 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2200-3200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO 37 TO 46
                    MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....13 INCREASING TO 31 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 56 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    INCREASING TO 82 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    INCREASING TO 99 INCREASING TO 109 LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 73.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........92  95  94  94  93  92  92  91  88  81  74  68
WEATHER COV.....CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........SCH DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
TEMP............65  65  66  68  71  74  76  78  79  79  79  76
RH..............93  100 100 97  90  82  79  71  69  67  67  71
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..8   8   9   9   10  12  12  13  14  14  14  14
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  20  20  20  25  25  25  25  25
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.2 2.2
MIXNG WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
MIXNG WIND SPD..12  12  12  12  14  21  29  37  43  46  46  37
DISPERSION IDX..10  13  12  13  15  31  56  82  99  109 109 73
LVORI...........6   5   6   5   5   3   3   3   1   1   1   3
CHC OF PCPN (%).50  80  80  80  80  80  80  100 100 100 100 100

$$
FORECASTER...SHASHY
REQUESTED BY...SGT MICHAEL QUADE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1700620.0/JAX
.EMAIL MICHAELQUADE@FLHSMV.GOV


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