Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FNUS71 KLWX 181830
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for Skyland Fire...Shenandoah National Park
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
130 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1400 EST on November 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will build offshore through this afternoon. A
southerly flow will allow for milder conditions...but more clouds
are expected. A strong cold front will pass through tonight into
early Sunday morning...bringing more showers and gusty winds.

Blustery and colder conditions are expected behind the cold front
for Sunday before high pressure settles to our south Sunday night
through Monday. The high will move offshore Tuesday and a cold
front will pass through late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Chilly
conditions will return behind the boundary for Thanksgiving Day.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). A slight chance of
                    showers early in the afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent, decreasing to 10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 17 to 19 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (12700-14300 knot-ft).

TIME (EST)      2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........99     99
WEATHER COV.....S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE
CWR.............20     10
TEMP............55     57
RH..............61     62
20 FT WIND......SW 17  S 18
20 FT WIND GUST.28     30
MIX HGT (FT)....800    800
MIXNG WIND......S 17   S 21
VRATE KT-FT/100013     14

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). A slight chance of
                    showers early in the evening. Showers in the
                    late evening and early morning, then a chance
                    of showers late.
CWR.................10 percent, increasing to 20 percent in the
                    evening, then increasing to 70 percent in the
                    evening, increasing to 80 percent, decreasing
                    to 40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 20 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 48
                    mph.
Mixing height.......700-2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 22 to 31 mph, becoming west 33 to 35
                    mph late.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (13400-53400 knot-ft), increasing
                    to excellent (62800 knot-ft) late.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........96     93     95     100    100    90
WEATHER COV.....       S CHC  LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
CWR.............10     20     70     70     80     40
TEMP............56     56     57     59     59     55
RH..............66     72     72     67     60     57
20 FT WIND......SW 20  SW 23  SW 25  SW 25  SW 23  W 24
20 FT WIND GUST.31     36     38     38     36     38
MIX HGT (FT)....700    800    900    800    1400   2400
MIXNG WIND......S 22   S 23   SW 25  S 24   SW 28  SW 35
VRATE KT-FT/100014     16     21     17     33     72

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). A chance of
                    showers early in the morning.
CWR.................40 percent, decreasing to 10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 42.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. Northwest winds 19 to 26 mph with gusts
                    to around 41 mph.
Mixing height.......1600-3400 ft AGL, increasing to 3600-4400 ft
                    AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Northwest 26 to 35 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (43500-79800 knot-ft),
                    increasing to excellent (83000 knot-ft) in the
                    late morning and afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........62     41     36     39     45     47
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
CWR.............40     0      0      0      10     10
TEMP............44     39     42     41     40     38
RH..............73     76     60     57     55     54
20 FT WIND......W 25   NW 26  NW 24  NW 21  NW 19  NW 19
20 FT WIND GUST.38     41     38     34     31     31
MIX HGT (FT)....1800   2100   3400   4100   4400   4200
MIXNG WIND......W 32   NW 32  NW 35  NW 31  NW 28  NW 28
VRATE KT-FT/100050     58     103    110    106    102

$$
Forecaster...Martin
Requested by...Ranger Kelly Good
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1718981.0/LWX



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