Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FNUS71 KLWX 240832
FWSLWX

SPOT FORECAST FOR ARCHER KNOB...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
432 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT ALONG WITH A STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SHOWERS WILL `
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT EITHER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL DUE TO CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5100-6000 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH EARLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
                    BY LATE THIS MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BECOME
                    SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........32     37     38     38
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............50     58     62     63
RH..............31     23     20     22
20 FT WIND......SW 2   S 2    SW 4   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.7      11     11     11
CWR.............0      0      0      0

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
MAX HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-1600 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 10 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........39     43     57     72     76     78
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............62     57     54     51     49     48
RH..............28     41     46     52     57     62
20 FT WIND......S 5    S 5    S 4    S 5    S 5    S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.7      7      7      7      7      7
CWR.............0      0      10     10     10     10

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS. A
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................80 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 14 TO 22 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........80     82     87     92     96     94
WEATHER COV.....       LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............47     50     56     60     63     64
RH..............68     70     68     67     64     61
20 FT WIND......S 5    S 6    S 7    SW 7   SW 6   SW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.7      11     11     14     14     14
CWR.............10     60     60     80     80     80

$$
FORECASTER...LASORSA
REQUESTED BY...TOM LEDBETTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140424.ARCHE.02/LWX






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