Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 181353
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Arkansas post memorial rx...National park service
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
853 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on October 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...The dry weather pattern will continue the rest of the week and
into the weekend, with little to no rain in the forecast. Minimum
afternoon relative humidity values will be the lowest today, then
slowly rise through the week. A chance of rain is in the forecast
late Saturday, Sunday and into Monday as a weather system is
forecast to affect the area. Reference the Arkansas Forestry
Commission for county burn bans and a map of the moderate to high
wildfire danger across Arkansas.

.TODAY...

Temperature.........58 at ignition...Max 77.
RH..................64 percent at ignition...Min 35 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds southeast at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 5 to 6
                    mph.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Dispersion..........9 increasing to 21 late in the morning.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4500 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4666 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............58  61  66  70  73  74  75  76  74
RH..............64  58  51  44  42  38  37  35  37
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   8
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 50.
RH..................Max 78 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Stability class.....E.
20 Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Dispersion..........22 decreasing to 3 early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4221 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............71  67  64  62  60  59  57  56  56  55  54  54
RH..............40  46  51  56  60  63  68  71  72  74  77  75
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.                        5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.                        5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.8   6   7   8   8   9   10  10  10  12  12  12
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.THURSDAY...

Temperature.........Max 79.
RH..................Min 41 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 12 mph.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Dispersion..........13 increasing to 19 early in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4500 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4663 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............53  53  55  59  63  68  72  74  76  77  78  76
RH..............77  78  76  67  59  53  48  44  43  41  41  43
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.12  12  12  10  9   8   8   7   7   7   7   7
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
Forecaster...55
Requested by...Tim fondriest
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717459.0/LZK
.EMAIL Timothy_fondriest@nps.gov



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