Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FNUS72 KMFL 231225
FWSMFL

Spot Forecast for COLLIER INCIDENT REQUEST...COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
National Weather Service Miami FL
825 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0900 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (305) 229-4522, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Showers will continue to develop through the day hours today
along with the possibility of a thunderstorm. Any storms that do
develop will be capable of producing lightning strikes and gusty
winds. There are some showers offshore in the Gulf waters that are
slowly drifting towards the fire site. The relative humidity
values should stay in mid 60s today over the wildfire, and the
winds should remain light and variable this morning before going
northwest 5 to 10 mph this afternoon. Dispersion index values will
remain below 20 all day today.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Numerous showers
                    late in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms
                    through the day. Scattered showers in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................2.
Mixing height.......700-2200 ft AGL...increasing to 2800-3400 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 9 mph...becoming northwest around 5
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....13.
LVORI...............5.
Ceiling (kft).......3500...increasing to 5000.

Time (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
Sky (%).........69  69  82  82  82  80  80  80  65  65  65  68
Weather cov.....NUM NUM NUM SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Temp............73  75  76  78  80  81  83  83  82  80  79  77
RH..............89  87  85  79  74  69  65  67  70  73  74  78
20 ft wind dir..NE  E   NE  NE  E   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW
20 ft wind dir..050 070 060 040 070 020 020 000 340 340 330 330
20 ft wind spd..5   4   5   6   5   4   4   4   4   3   4   4
20 ft wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5   10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.3 1.5 0.7
Mixng wind dir..NE  E   E   E   E   E   NE  N   NW  NW  NW  NW
Mixng wind spd..8   9   9   8   7   5   5   5   5   7   8   9
Dispersion idx..8   13  16  17  15  13  11  11  12  14  14  7
LVORI...........6   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
Chc of pcpn (%).60  60  60  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  10
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent)...then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Scattered
                    showers with isolated thunderstorms early in
                    the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming northwest around 5 mph
                    early in the evening,...then becoming light
                    late in the evening...becoming northwest 5 to 6
                    mph after midnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2000,...then 1.
Mixing height.......500-2300 ft AGL...decreasing to 300 ft AGL
                    around midnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....10...decreasing to 6 around midnight.
LVORI...............6.
Ceiling (kft).......5000...increasing to 25000.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph with gusts up to 20
                    mph...increasing to 15 to 17 mph with gusts up
                    to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL...increasing to 2700-4100 ft
                    AGL early.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 18 mph...increasing to 21 to 23 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....10...increasing to 62.
LVORI...............5.
Ceiling (kft).......25000.

$$
Forecaster...Kelly
Requested by...RICK ZYVOLOSKI
Type of request...Wildfire
.TAG 1707335.15/MFL



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