Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FNUS73 KPAH 251308
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Big Spring Pile Burn...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
National Weather Service Paducah KY
808 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on July 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID AS WELL.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Temperature.........81 at ignition...Max 95.
RH..................83 percent at ignition...Min 45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds southeast at 3 mph at
                    ignition...becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL at ignition...
                    increasing to 6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 0 to 6 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  MCLEAR PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR
Weather cov.....       ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
CWR.............0      10     10     10     10
Temp............81     89     94     95     93
RH..............83     62     47     45     49
20 FT wind dir..SE     S      W      S      SE
20 FT wind spd..3      2      3      3      6
20 FT wind gust.5      5      5      5      10
Mix hgt (ft)....1900   4100   6000   6000   6000
Transp wind dir.S      SW     W      W      SW
Transp wind spd.2      3      6      5      3
Haines index....4      4      4      5      5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
                    Patchy fog early in the morning.
CWR.................10 percent.
Temperature.........Min 72.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL decreasing to 800-1500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 5 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather cov.....ISOLTD S CHC                       PATCHY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   FOG
Tstm cov........ISOLTD S CHC
CWR.............10     0      0      0      0      0
Temp............91     86     80     77     76     74
RH..............54     65     79     87     89     93
20 FT wind dir..SE     SE     SE     SE     S      S
20 FT wind spd..6      5      5      3      2      2
20 FT wind gust.10                   5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....6000   6000   1500   1000   1500   1400
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.5      5      5      3      2      2
Haines index....5      5      4      3      3      3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Widespread fog early in
                    the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 96.
RH..................Min 43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300-2500 ft AGL increasing to 9200-9800 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 13
                    mph early in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential to low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY
Weather cov.....WIDSPD
Weather type....FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............72     76     86     93     96     96
RH..............100    90     70     52     44     44
20 FT wind dir..S      S      SW     S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..2      2      2      3      6      6
20 FT wind gust.5                    5
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   1400   2500   7200   9800   9300
Transp wind dir.SW     SW     W      SW     SW     SW
Transp wind spd.2      3      7      9      12     13
Haines index....3      3      3      4      4      4

$$
Forecaster...YORK
Requested by...Greg Carlson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1713350.0/PAH
.EMAIL greg_carlson@nps.gov



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