Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FNUS71 KPBZ 301937
FWSPBZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR RED CREEK FIRE...FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
337 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1502 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH JUST WEST OF THE SPOT
LOCATION WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL RAIN RATES ARE RELATIVELY LOW
AROUND 0.10 INCHES PER HOUR BUT ISOLATED AREAS OF WITH MUCH HIGHER
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY
THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY IS TO THE WEST BUT LATEST HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OVER THE LOCATION
BETWEEN 800 PM AND 1100 PM TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA AND KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
FINALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
                    WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 8 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............88     86
WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............ISOLTD ISOLTD
TEMP................60     56
RH..................79     87
20 FT WIND..........E 6    E 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...
THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............85     82     77     73     68     63
WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............ISOLTD ISOLTD
TEMP................54     51     52     53     52     52
RH..................93     100    97     96     99     98
20 FT WIND..........E 6    E 6    E 6    E 5    SE 4   SE 3
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     15     15     10     10     5

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO
                    6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4400-5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 12 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 13
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............59     54     53     51     50     51
WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............
TEMP................52     52     56     60     64     65
RH..................99     98     91     78     68     63
20 FT WIND..........SE 3   SE 3   SE 3   SE 4   S 4    S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5      5      5

$$
FORECASTER...KENNEDY
REQUESTED BY...CAMERON CRISP
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160930.REDCR.02/PBZ



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