Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FNUS73 KSGF 272110
FWSSGF

Spot Forecast for Willow...US Forest Service - USFS
National Weather Service Springfield MO
310 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1600 CST on February 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at 1-800-762-4363, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Relative humidity will begin to increase late this afternoon and evening
as moisture from the south moves in. Overall highest chances for rain will
occur after midnight tonight. Winds will remain out of the south for the
remainder of the day and night. Conditions will remain mostly cloudy on
Tuesday with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 percent.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...15 percent.
TEMPERATURE.........61 at request...Max 62.
RH..................56 percent at request...Min 53 percent.
DEWPOINT............45.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........Winds southeast at 7 mph at request...otherwise
                    Southeast winds around 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 ft AGL at request...otherwise 1900 ft AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....South 13 to 14 mph.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Fair /23400 knot-ft/ at request. Max...fair
                    /23400 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at request...max 5.

TIME (CST)      4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........43  56
WEATHER COV.....    ISO
WEATHER TYPE....    RW
TSTM COV........    ISO
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  20
CHC OF THDR (%).0   20
TEMP............61  59
DEWPOINT........45  45
RH..............56  60
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.9 1.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.14  13
HAINES INDEX....5   5
VRATE KT-FT/100023  20

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    scattered showers and thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 percent.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...30 percent.
TEMPERATURE.........Min 55.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
DEWPOINT............48 increasing to 56.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........South winds 7 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1700 ft AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....South 12 to 16 mph.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Poor to fair (9600-17500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........65  75  76  79  84  84  86  87  86  85  83  81
WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
CHC OF PCPN (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  30  30  40  40  40  40
CHC OF THDR (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  30  30  30  30  30  30
TEMP............58  56  56  55  55  55  55  57  56  56  56  56
DEWPOINT........46  48  49  50  51  51  53  54  54  55  55  56
RH..............64  74  77  83  86  86  86  90  93  96  96  100
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.12  13  15  16  16  16  15  15  15  15  15  14
HAINES INDEX....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/100018  17  15  14  13  12  12  12  12  12  11  10

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 percent.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...13 percent.
TEMPERATURE.........Max 74.
RH..................Min 62 percent.
DEWPOINT............58.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........South winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
                    in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2700 ft AGL increasing to 2700-4000 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....Southwest 15 to 23 mph increasing to 23 to 31
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Poor to good (10000-43800 knot-ft) increasing
                    to excellent to excellent (63700-108000
                    knot-ft) in the late morning and afternoon,
                    then decreasing to good (55300 knot-ft) late in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........79  83  87  91  91  91  91  89  87  86  87  89
WEATHER COV.....                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  50  50  50  50  50  50
CHC OF THDR (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10
TEMP............56  56  56  60  63  67  70  72  73  74  74  73
DEWPOINT........56  56  56  59  59  60  60  60  59  59  59  59
RH..............100 100 100 100 87  81  73  68  64  62  62  64
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   6   6   7   7   8   8   8   8   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  15  15  20  20  25  25  25  25  20  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.8 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.7 3.3 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.5 2.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.15  17  20  23  25  28  29  30  31  30  28  23
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   3   3   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/100010  13  18  28  44  64  82  99  108 104 83  55

$$
Forecaster...BURCHFIELD
Requested by...MOMOC
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1703015.0/SGF
.EMAIL momocdispatch@fs.fed.us



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