Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FNUS73 KSGF 231417
FWSSGF

SPOT FORECAST FOR SEWAGE LAGOON...MISSOURI STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
917 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE REGION.  A
SPRINKLE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S...ALLOWING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...AND THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI...FOLLOWED BY BETTER CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59 AT IGNITION...MAX 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 47 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST
                    6 TO 9 MPH.
WIND SHIFT..........BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...MAXIMUM 1900 FT AGL
                    INCREASING TO 3400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............59     65     68     68
RH..............65     55     50     50
20 FT WIND......SW 6   W 6    W 6    W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....900    1900   2800   3400
TRANSPORT WIND..W 17   W 18   W 15   NW 10
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....3      3      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 85 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING EAST AROUND 5
                    MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
                    EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WIND SHIFT..........LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....N/A.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....              S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............67     61     57     55     52     51
RH..............53     65     73     76     80     84
20 FT WIND......N 4    N 3    E 3    E 4    E 4    E 4
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....3500   2700   1100   900    800    500
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 8   NW 7   N 10   E 14   E 15   E 14
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     20     20     40     40
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      3      3      3

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 47 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND SHIFT..........GUSTY IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....50 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 21
                    TO 28 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING
                    TO SOUTHWEST 31 TO 38 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON INCREASING TO AROUND 41 MPH LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............50     51     56     62     69     74
RH..............87     86     80     68     54     47
20 FT WIND......SE 5   SE 5   SE 9   S 10   S 14   S 13
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     20     20     30     30
MIX HGT (FT)....400    300    400    1600   2700   3100
TRANSPORT WIND..E 12   SE 12  SE 17  S 24   S 31   SW 38
CHC OF PCPN (%).40     40     40     40     50     60
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      3      3      3

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 56 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND SHIFT..........GUSTY IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....70 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 44 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY                      S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE   NONE   NONE   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............71     64     61     56     54     52     51     51     56     64     68     71
RH..............49     60     66     69     71     74     73     69     61     49     44     39
20 FT WIND......S 11   SW 9   SW 7   SW 5   SW 5   SW 4   SW 4   S 4    S 5    S 6    S 8    SE 7
20 FT WIND GUST.25     20     15     10     10     10     10     10     10     15     20     15
MIX HGT (FT)....2500   2300   2600   1400   500    400    400    300    400    1300   2700   4100
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 43  W 43   W 39   W 32   W 25   SW 18  S 13   S 10   S 12   S 15   S 17   SW 21
CHC OF PCPN (%).60     70     70     70     10     10     10     20     20     20     50     50
HAINES INDEX....3      3      4      4      4      5      5      5      5      5      4      3

$$
FORECASTER...BOXELL
REQUESTED BY...CINDY HALL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150323.SEWAG.01/SGF






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