Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FNUS73 KTOP 231425
FWSTOP

Spot Forecast for JASON DAVIS...BIA
National Weather Service Topeka KS
825 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on February 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
The biggest concern today will be easterly winds sustained at 10-15
mph with gusts 20-25 mph. Scattered rain showers will continue to
be possible through the early afternoon hours. With the scattered
showers in the area RH values are much higher today with min RH
values in the middle 50s.  A wind shift to the northwest is expected
near midnight with sustained winds remaining 10-15 mph with gusts
upwards of 30 mph through Friday evening.

.Period 1...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........57 percent.
WIND (20 FT)........East winds 10 to 13 mph.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 percent.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 21 to 30 mph decreasing to 18 to 20 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
SKY (%).........90  88  86  84  81  78  76  71  66  62  55  48
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH CHC CHC SCH SCH                 SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW                  RW  RW
TSTM COV........                                        SCH SCH
TEMP............49  49  52  55  57  59  60  60  60  59  57  54
RH..............68  71  66  61  57  57  58  60  60  62  67  71
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..11  12  12  11  11  12  11  10  9   8   7   8
20 FT WIND GUST.20  20  20  20  20  20  20  15  15  10  10  10
CHC OF PCPN (%).30  20  30  30  20  20  10  10  10  10  20  20
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
                    Slight chance of rain after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........77 percent.
WIND (20 FT)........Northeast winds 8 to 9 mph shifting to the west
                    9 to 15 mph late in the evening. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the evening.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 16 to 18 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 15 to 23 mph late in the evening,
                    then increasing to west 28 to 30 mph early in
                    the morning.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    in the afternoon. Chance of snow late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 40.
Min humidity........50 percent.
WIND (20 FT)........Northwest winds 15 to 19 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 percent.
Transport winds.....Northwest 30 to 36 mph.
Mixing height.......2000-3700 ft AGL increasing to 4600-6500 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Haines Index........2 to 3 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Baerg
Requested by...JASON
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702716.0/TOP


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