Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FNUS74 KTSA 260610
FWSTSA

Spot Forecast for OKRD-Long Branch S2...USFS
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1210 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on February 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact NWS Tulsa at (918)838-7838, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure over the burn site early this morning will
shift east of the area by mid morning, leading to increasing
south to southeasterly winds and better smoke dispersal
conditions than seen yesterday. 20-foot wind gusts should remain
in the 10 to 15 mph range through the afternoon. A small chance of
a shower will exist during the afternoon, but the greater
rainfall chances will hold off until the evening and overnight
hours.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Dewpoint............25 increasing to 34.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......600-2500 ft AGL increasing to 1900-2600 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 18 mph increasing to 21 to 24 mph
                    late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (9500-20000 knot-ft).
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).49 increasing to 57 in the afternoon.

TIME (CST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........36  41  51  61  71  81  91  91
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............46  50  53  56  57  58  58  57
Dewpoint........28  28  29  30  32  33  35  36
RH..............49  42  39  37  38  39  42  45
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   8   8   8   7   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.18  21  23  23  23  23  23  24
VRate kt-ft/1K..10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20
1700FT Mix T(F).46  50  53  56  57  58  58  57

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the evening, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Dewpoint............40 increasing to 43 late in the evening.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 23 mph becoming east 5 to 10
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (200-15600 knot-ft).
Stability class.....6.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).53.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........97  97  97  97  97  97  94  94  94  94  94  94
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............56  54  51  49  47  46  46  46  46  45  44  43
Dewpoint........38  39  40  41  42  43  44  44  43  43  43  43
RH..............51  57  66  74  83  89  93  93  89  93  96  100
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10      5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.23  20  15  10  8   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRate kt-ft/1K..16  16  16  16  16  16  0   0   0   0   0   0
1700FT Mix T(F).56  54  51  52  52  52  52  53  54  55  55  55

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........70 percent.
Dewpoint............44 increasing to 54.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400-2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 14 mph increasing to southwest 28 to
                    29 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4700-14000 knot-ft).
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).58 increasing to 64 late in the afternoon.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........90  90  90  90  90  90  74  73  72  72  71  70
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............43  44  47  50  54  57  60  62  62  63  63  64
Dewpoint........43  44  46  48  49  50  51  52  53  54  54  55
RH..............100 100 96  93  83  77  72  70  72  72  72  73
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..4   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.5       10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.4 0.8
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.5   5   6   7   8   10  14  18  24  28  29  28
VRate kt-ft/1K..5   5   5   5   5   5   14  14  14  14  14  14
1700FT Mix T(F).55  56  56  56  54  57  60  62  62  63  63  64

$$
Forecaster...K.HATFIELD
Requested by...Kris Wilson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702196.3/TSA
.EMAIL kriswilson@fs.fed.us


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