Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 241227
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
827 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. TUTT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FRENCH ANTILLES INTO THE ABC AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
WHILE A MID/UPPER RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE HAITIAN PENINSULA. THIS
IS LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SUSTAINING CURRENT PATTERN OF FAIR WEATHER. A TROPICAL WAVE
EXTENDS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA INTO PUERTO RICO/USVI...BUT
MOST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS CONSTRAINED
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO TUTT
CONVERGENCE NORTHWEST OF THESE REGIONS.

MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING TUTT DETACHING FROM THE WESTERLIES AND
EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW BY 48 HRS. TUTT IS TO THEN START TO
RETROGRESS TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL VENEZUELA INTO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY...TO WESTERN
VENEZUELA-PUERTO RICO BY TUESDAY. TUTT WILL INTERACT WITH AN
ARRIVING TROPICAL WAVE AND AN ACTIVATING ATLANTIC ITCZ...ENHANCING
CONVECTION EAST OF ITS MAIN AXIS. IT APPEARS THAT THE PATTERN IS
TO EVOLVE INTO A WET ONE ACROSS THE ISLANDS SOMETIME AROUND
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME...EXPECTING FAIR WEATHER TO
CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONSTRAINING TO THE
05-10MM/DAY RANGE.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

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