Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 261118
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
718 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2017

VALID 00Z TUE JUN 27 2017 - 00Z TUE JUL 04 2017


THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF HAWAII MID WEEK
AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  TRADE
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGH MID WEEK.

HOWEVER, OVER THE WEEKEND THE HIGH MOVES NORTH AND A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ISLANDS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM EAST TO WEST.

THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND COINCIDES WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE HIGH AND CROSSING THE ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND. THE TRADE WINDS WILL RELAX AND BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE.
THE HIGHER AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE ABILITY OF SHOWERS TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, TRADES SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND UPPER LOW PASSES TO THE WEST.  THE AVAILABLE
PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES,
SO EXPECT A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY, TENDING TO FOCUS OVER
WINDWARD AREAS AND WHERE TRADES REACH THE COAST.


PETERSEN

$$





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