Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 161228
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
827 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VALID 00Z THU APR 17 2014 - 00Z THU APR 24 2014

FOR HAWAI`I AND THE SUBTROPICS...THE 16/00Z ECENS/GEFS MEANS AND
THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS PRODUCED A MORE `STABLE` FLOW PATTERN
FORECAST THROUGH DAY 7 FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

`STABLE` IS A RELATIVE TERM TODAY...AND WITH RESPECT TO LATITUDE
RATHER THAN LONGITUDE.

THE 15/00Z GEFS/ECENS SOLUTIONS ALOFT (500MB LEVEL) WERE
APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE APART WITH THE MIGRATION OF
AN ENERGETIC MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS THE DATELINE DURING THE
SUN/MON TIME FRAME (DAYS 4-5). THE 16/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
NARROWED THE DIFFERENCES DOWN TO APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES OF
LONGITUDE. YESTERDAY...WPC RECOMMENDED THE ECENS/ECMWF BLEND
AND...

THE SIGNIFICANCE FOR THE SUBTROPICS IS TWO-FOLD...IN THAT...THE
SUBTLE `SLOWING` OF THE MIGRATION ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW ALONG
160W...AND THE 16/00Z GUIDANCE HELPS NARROW THE TIMING DOWN FOR
THE BRIEF `RELAXATION` OF THE TRADES...A 24-HOUR
PERIOD...`BOOKEND-ED` AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE TRADES RE-ENERGIZE AND A SUBTROPICAL SURFACE
RIDGE IS RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.

RECOMMEND USING A BLEND OF THE 16/00Z ECENS MEAN AND ITS
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION.

VOJTESAK

$$





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