Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 021224
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
823 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

VALID 00Z FRI JUL 03 2015 - 00Z FRI JUL 10 2015


THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE TROUGH JUST WEST OF HAWAI`I WILL
GRADUALLY SHEAR APART THIS WEEKEND AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT-LIVED,
AS A MOIST, VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE STATE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT GFS AND ECMWF ARE RATHER
DIFFERENT WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS DISTURBANCE, WITH BOTH MODELS
SUGGESTING A WEAKER WAVE CROSSING HAWAI`I PROPER, AS MORE
DEVELOPED EDDIES--PERHAPS EVEN TROPICAL CYCLONES--TRACK WESTWARD
BETWEEN 12N AND 14N. FIVE-DAY QPF THROUGH 00Z/08 JULY IS GENERALLY
UNDER A TENTH-OF-AN-INCH ACROSS THE ISLANDS, WITH SEVERAL INCHES
NEAR MAUNA LOA. MORE WIDESPREAD, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CISCO

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