Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 011835
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 PM EDT MON JUN 01 2015

VALID JUN 01/1200 UTC THRU JUN 05/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING FINAL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST
SURFACE LOW IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC/COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONVERGENCE TOWARD ONE ANOTHER OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS AND SHOW ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO PREFER A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE TO RESOLVE THE SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES.


UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON 12Z UKMET BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
700-500 MB LOW ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS...IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS. ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI HEIGHTS HAVE SHOWN
CONVERGENCE TOWARD THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF. THE 12Z CMC HAS
ADJUSTED TOWARD THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF FROM ITS 00Z RUN...BUT THE 12Z
UKMET REMAINS A BIT NORTH AND QUICKER BETWEEN F060 AND F084 HOURS.


SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MON AND TUE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED
LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS WITH THE 12Z OR 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z ECMWF APPEAR BEST HERE...WITH THE 12Z GFS SIMILAR IN
POSITION REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF INTEREST...BUT
THE GFS IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE
12Z ECMWF ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE NRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT BUT REMAINS LARGELY SIMILAR
TO ITS 00Z RUN. THE 12Z NAM IS ON THE STRONG SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE...JOINED BY THE 12Z CMC AND SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION.
TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES BEST SUPPORT A BLEND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF/GFS.


UPPER TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE WEST BY WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON 12Z CMC BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH F084
HOURS WITH THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BEST MATCHING THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE UKMET IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS BUT THE 12Z CMC REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY BROADER AND
QUICKER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THU EVENING.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

OTTO

$$





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