Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
000
FXUS06 KWBC 262022
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU FEBRUARY 26 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 04 - 08 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE
500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA.
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST COAST
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
EXPECTED BROAD TROUGH. OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE IS
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE OTHERS CALIBRATED TOOLS, AND IT WAS
DISREGARDED AS AN OUTLIER. NEAR- AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
ALASKA INCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS AND THE PANHANDLE.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN CONUS, THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FORECAST TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE
ENHANCED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE UPPER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST
GUIDANCE. THIS AREA IS UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND AWAY FROM THE MEAN
STORM TRACK.  THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLES.


TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%
OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8


MODEL OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE
INCONSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS BETWEEN THE NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 06 - 12 2015

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2
PERIOD ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. A SHORT WAVE WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS, MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FORECAST A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. OVER THE ALASKA
SECTOR, A CONSENSUS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FORECAST A RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND THE
ALEUTIANS, EXCEPT THE INTERIOR BASIN, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE FORECAST TOOLS DERIVED FROM 0Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN CONUS
AND THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS NEAR THE FORECAST TROUGH. WITH A MEAN TROUGH
POSITION FORECAST NEAR THE WEST COAST, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALASKA INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLE AND THE ALEUTIANS RELATED TO A NORTHWARD DISPLACED STORM TRACK.
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS EXCEPT FOR FLORIDA, ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK.


THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY`S
0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE FASTER EASTWARD SHIFT
OF THE PATTERNS IN GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THAN THAT OF 0Z ECMWF.

FORECASTER: QIN GINGER ZHANG

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890210 - 20020302 - 20030207 - 19950210 - 20060213


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890209 - 20020302 - 20030208 - 19890214 - 20060215


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 04 - 08 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      B    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   N    B     IDAHO       B    B     NEVADA      B    B
W MONTANA   B    B     E MONTANA   B    B     WYOMING     B    B
UTAH        B    B     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    B    B
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    B
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    N
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    N     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 06 - 12 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   N    N     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    B    B
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      N    B     OKLAHOMA    B    B
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     N    B
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    N     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    B    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    N
N CAROLINA  B    N     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A
FL PNHDL    N    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.