Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 250725
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
325 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2017

VALID 12Z MON SEP 25 2017 - 12Z WED SEP 27 2017

...AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
WITH HURRICANE MARIA NEAR THE EAST COAST...

WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES,
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK
FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION BEFORE A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES LATER
IN THE WEEK.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ALONG WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS, THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
DECREASE.

THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK.  SOME LOCATIONS
COULD EVEN ACHIEVE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BREAKING
THE 90-DEGREE MARK. A STRONG, SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WITH MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT WILL SPAN FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS.  GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME
FLOODING ISSUES FROM TEXAS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THE GREATEST
THREAT OF FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS, WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL STORM PILAR IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WITH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HURRICANE MARIA IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR PARTS OF THE EAST COAST
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.  CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THIS STORM MAY COME WITHIN 200 MILES OF NORTH CAROLINA`S OUTER
BANKS BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY.  IT WILL BE THE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THAT CAUSES THE EASTWARD TURN FOR THE
HURRICANE LATER IN THE WEEK.  IN THE MEANTIME, EXPECT ROUGH SURF
AND HIGH SEAS FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS, ALONG
WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND GUSTY WINDS.  THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS THE LATEST INFORMATION AND FORECAST TRACK
REGARDING THIS HURRICANE.

D. HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
$$





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