Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 150136
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
936 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...VALID 03Z MON SEP 15 2014 - 00Z TUE SEP 16 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SOME HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL STILL POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE
FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN GA AND SOUTHERN SC. ABOVE AVERAGE
PW VALUES---1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY---ESPECIALLY
FROM SOUTHEAST GA INTO SOUTHERN SC. LARGE SCALE LIFT PROBABLY NOT
AS FAVORABLE AS YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHT...BUT THE SLOW MOVING CELLS
IN THE VERY HIGH PW AIRMASS WOULD STILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MORE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
PLAY AGAIN LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE PIVOTING NRN STREAM
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ALLOWS FOR MORE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER
JET FORCING (UPPER DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LOWER LEVEL FGEN). IN
AREAS OF THESE SLOW MOVING CELLS...ISOLATED SHORT TERM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TERRY/HURLEY

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