Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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104
FOUS30 KWBC 270822
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
422 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017

...VALID 12Z TUE JUN 27 2017 - 12Z WED JUN 28 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ENE LXL 15 SW MKT 15 SE ADU 15 NNW STJ 20 WSW FOE 55 ENE HLC
15 SSE OGA 25 N OGA ONL 25 ESE HON 25 SSW FAR 30 SSE FSE
25 ENE LXL.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 E BRO BKS 15 SSW SKF 10 WNW BAZ 30 NNW 5R5 10 ENE KVBS.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 SE APF 10 WNW PGD BKV 30 S 40J 15 E AAF 15 WSW TLH
35 ENE 40J 30 NNW JAX 25 NNW DAB 10 N SUA 10 SSW HST 50 SE APF.



...FLORIDA, THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND UPPER MIDWEST...

WPC IS ISSUING THREE MARGINAL AREAS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY, ONE ACROSS FLORIDA, ANOTHER NEAR COASTAL TX AND A THIRD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THE TREND OVER THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS ACROSS FL IS ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY, AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTENT WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING RESULT IN ENHANCED SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY WITH SLIGHT STEERING MOTION. MEANWHILE A WEAKNESS ALOFT
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD KEEP INTACT
DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT, ONSHORE FLOW, LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN. IN EACH STATE, THE
HI-RES SUITE OF GUIDANCE INDICATE CERTAIN LOCALES VULNERABLE FOR
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN. FINALLY, A SHORT WAVE OVER THE INTERIOR
NW WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE
A 6-12 HR WINDOW FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAIN. NO REAL CONSENSUS WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
HI-RES SUITE ON WHERE THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. AS A
RESULT, PLACED A LARGE PORTION OF NE/NERN KS NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN SD AND WESTERN IA/MN IN A MARGINAL THREAT.

MUSHER

$$





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