Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 240057
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
857 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...VALID 01Z WED AUG 24 2016 - 12Z WED AUG 24 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SSW MMCS ALM 45 SW CVS 25 NW CDS 50 S CDS 30 S ODO
95 ENE MMCU.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SSE BBB 15 ESE RNH RHI 15 S AIG DBQ 15 NE AAA 10 WSW ALN
15 N SZL 40 WSW FNB 20 NNW JYR 25 ESE MHE 10 SSE BBB.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 W MLF 45 WSW 4HV 35 NNW 4BL 15 S GJT 20 SW EEO 10 NW CAG
40 WSW PUM 15 NE DEN 20 SW LIC 25 N TAD 40 NNW SAF 30 W GNT
25 NNW INW 35 NE LSV 40 NE DRA 80 NNE DRA 75 S ELY 50 W MLF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW ASE 30 WSW BJC 20 WNW AFF 25 N CPW 25 ENE CEZ 25 WNW TEX
20 WSW ASE.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
MIW 10 NNW UIN 35 SE CDJ 20 NW STJ LNK 15 NNE OFK 15 NW SHL
15 NNE MCW MIW.



SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
ROCKIES

A WELL DEFINED VORT EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION
THIS PERIOD.  STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST UT---SOUTHWEST TO
CENTRAL CO---NORTHERN AZ.  THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.  CONFIDENCE
ON QPF DETAILS LOW---BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WELL DEFINED VORT
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES---LOCALLY HEAVY AND ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TX

A SERIES OF VORTS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST MEAN TROF AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
CLOSED HIGH.  THESE VORTS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCENTUATE LIFT IN THE
AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AN AXIS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM SW TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NM.  WITH FFG VALUES RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM
INTO SOUTHWEST TX---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE WITH A
MARGINAL RISK AREA DEPICTED.


EASTERN NEBRASKA---FAR SOUTHEAST SD---IA---FAR WEST CENTRAL IL
INTO FAR NORTHERN MO

0100 UTC UPDATE...

HAVE EXPANDED THE "SLIGHT" RISK AREA A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN MO...WHERE PER THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS THE
MIXED-LAYER CAPES REMAIN A ROBUST 2000-3000 J/KG. SOME OF THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING RECENT HRRR RUNS...SHOW AN UPTICK
IN QPF OVERNIGHT INTO THIS AREA WITHIN A 30-40 KT SW LLJ AND AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST KS.
MEANWHILE...THE INITIAL MCS AND ASSOCIATED MCV ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
CURRENTLY CONTINUES TO LIFT E-NE THIS EVENING...POSING MORE OF AN
ISOLATED OR MARGINAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT GIVEN THE FORWARD
(DOWNWIND) PROPAGATION ALONG WITH LESS DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH (CAPE OF 657 J/KG PER 00Z KMPX OBSERVED RAOB).

HURLEY

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW---INCREASING PW VALUES ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION THIS PERIOD  AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS---LOWER MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY.   MODELS ARE
CONVERGING ON A POTENTIAL MAX PRECIP AREA IN THE VICINITY OF
EASTERN NE---FAR SOUTHEAST SD---ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF IA AND
FAR NORTHERN MO---ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERING MAX AXES AMONG THE
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE.  THE LATEST NSSL WRF IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS---ACROSS EASTERN NE---NORTHEAST KS INTO
NORTHERN MO---WHILE THE 0000 UTC ARW AND NMMB TRENDED FARTHER
NORTH FROM THEIR 1200 UTC MON RUNS INTO NORTHEAST NE---NW IA AND
FAR SOUTHERN MN.  THERE IS A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL QPF AXES FOR
THIS UPCOMING EVENT---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE
DETAILS---BUT HIGHER FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  WPC QPF DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY (WPC AND NDFD) KEEPING THE MAX AXIS OVER EASTERN
NE---FAR SOUTHEAST SD---IA AND NORTHERN MO.  INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY  LOW LEVEL FLOW AFTER 0000 UTC
WED MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS ACROSS THIS AREA
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WED.  IN AREAS OF
TRAINING---EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS CONTINUE--WITH A BROAD
SLIGHT RISK MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS.  IN AREAS OF TRAINING
ISOLATED 3-5"+ RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.


ORAVEC/SULLIVAN
$$





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