River Forecast
Issued by NWS

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703
FGUS53 KMSR 270215
RVFCIW

RIVER FORECAST
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
858 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

: THIS PRODUCT HAS PRELIMINARY DATA THAT MAY BE SUBJECT TO REVISION.
: REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WFO FOR THE LATEST OFFICIAL RIVER FORECAST.
:
:
: Cedar River  Lansing MN - LANM5
: HSA:ARX   Flood Stage:18.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:14.0 FT
.E LANM5 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  14.4/ 14.2/ 14.0/ 13.8
.E LANM5 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  13.7/ 13.5/ 13.4/ 13.2/ 13.1/ 12.9/ 12.8/ 12.6
.E1  12.5/ 12.4/ 12.2/ 12.1/ 12.1/ 11.9/ 11.9/ 11.8
.E1  11.7/ 11.5/ 11.4/ 11.3/ 11.2/ 11.1/ 11.0/ 10.9
.E1  10.8/ 10.7/ 10.6/ 10.5/
:
:
: Turtle Creek  Austin MN 3NW - TRCM5
: HSA:ARX   Flood Stage:10.5 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:7.0 FT
.E TRCM5 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  11.4/ 11.2/ 11.0/ 10.8
.E TRCM5 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  10.6/ 10.4/ 10.1/ 9.9/ 9.6/ 9.4/ 9.2/ 9.0
.E1  8.7/ 8.5/ 8.3/ 8.0/ 7.8/ 7.5/ 7.2/ 6.9
.E1  6.6/ 6.3/ 6.1/ 5.8/ 5.6/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.3
.E1  5.2/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.0/
:
:
: Cedar River  Charles City - CCYI4
: HSA:ARX   Flood Stage:12.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:9.0 FT
.E CCYI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  11.4/ 10.7/ 10.3/ 9.9
.E CCYI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  9.6/ 9.3/ 9.0/ 8.8/ 8.5/ 8.3/ 8.0/ 7.7
.E1  7.4/ 7.1/ 6.9/ 6.7/ 6.6/ 6.4/ 6.2/ 6.0
.E1  5.8/ 5.6/ 5.4/ 5.2/ 5.0/ 4.8/ 4.6/ 4.5
.E1  4.3/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.1/
:
:
: Cedar River  Janesville - JANI4
: HSA:DMX   Flood Stage:13.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:10.0 FT
.E JANI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  15.0/ 14.4/ 13.6/ 12.7
.E JANI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  11.6/ 10.4/ 9.6/ 8.9/ 8.4/ 8.0/ 7.7/ 7.3
.E1  7.0/ 6.7/ 6.5/ 6.2/ 6.0/ 5.9/ 5.7/ 5.5
.E1  5.3/ 5.1/ 4.9/ 4.8/ 4.7/ 4.5/ 4.4/ 4.2
.E1  4.1/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.7/
:
:
: W Fork Cedar River  Finchford - FNHI4
: HSA:DMX   Flood Stage:17.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:12.0 FT
.E FNHI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  16.3/ 16.6/ 16.5/ 16.3
.E FNHI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  16.0/ 15.8/ 15.5/ 15.3/ 15.1/ 14.9/ 14.6/ 14.3
.E1  14.0/ 13.7/ 13.4/ 13.2/ 12.9/ 12.8/ 12.6/ 12.5
.E1  12.3/ 12.2/ 12.1/ 11.9/ 11.7/ 11.6/ 11.4/ 11.3
.E1  11.1/ 10.9/ 10.8/ 10.6/
:
:
: Winnebago River  Mason City - MCWI4
: HSA:DMX   Flood Stage:10.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:6.0 FT
.E MCWI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  8.6/ 8.5/ 8.4/ 8.2
.E MCWI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  8.1/ 8.0/ 7.8/ 7.7/ 7.6/ 7.4/ 7.3/ 7.2
.E1  7.1/ 7.0/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.8/ 6.7/ 6.6/ 6.5
.E1  6.4/ 6.3/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.1/ 6.0/ 5.9/ 5.9
.E1  5.8/ 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.8/
:
:
: Shell Rock River  Shell Rock - SHRI4
: HSA:DMX   Flood Stage:13.5 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:11.0 FT
.E SHRI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  15.2/ 14.0/ 13.9/ 13.7
.E SHRI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  13.6/ 13.5/ 13.3/ 13.0/ 12.9/ 12.8/ 12.7/ 12.6
.E1  12.4/ 12.3/ 12.2/ 12.1/ 12.0/ 11.9/ 11.8/ 11.7
.E1  11.6/ 11.5/ 11.4/ 11.3/ 11.2/ 11.1/ 11.0/ 11.0
.E1  10.9/ 10.8/ 10.8/ 10.7/
:
:
: Beaver Creek  New Hartford - NHRI4
: HSA:DMX   Flood Stage:12.5 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:9.0 FT
.E NHRI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  10.8/ 10.6/ 10.4/ 10.1
.E NHRI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  9.9/ 9.6/ 9.4/ 9.1/ 8.9/ 8.6/ 8.4/ 8.1
.E1  7.9/ 7.6/ 7.5/ 7.3/ 7.2/ 7.0/ 6.9/ 6.8
.E1  6.7/ 6.6/ 6.5/ 6.4/ 6.3/ 6.2/ 6.1/ 6.0
.E1  6.0/ 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.8/
:
:
: Cedar River  Cedar Falls - CEDI4
: HSA:DMX   Flood Stage:88.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:85.0 FT
.E CEDI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  97.1/ 96.7/ 96.4/ 96.0
.E CEDI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  95.6/ 95.4/ 95.0/ 94.7/ 94.4/ 94.1/ 93.7/ 93.3
.E1  93.0/ 92.6/ 92.3/ 91.9/ 91.6/ 91.2/ 90.9/ 90.6
.E1  90.3/ 90.0/ 89.6/ 89.3/ 89.0/ 88.6/ 88.3/ 87.9
.E1  87.6/ 87.3/ 87.0/ 86.7/
:
:
: Black Hawk Creek  Hudson - HUDI4
: HSA:DMX   Flood Stage:14.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:13.0 FT
.E HUDI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  14.0/ 13.8/ 13.5/ 13.3
.E HUDI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  13.0/ 12.8/ 12.4/ 12.0/ 11.5/ 11.0/ 10.5/ 10.1
.E1  9.8/ 9.5/ 9.2/ 8.9/ 8.7/ 8.5/ 8.3/ 8.2
.E1  8.1/ 7.9/ 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.7/ 7.7/ 7.6/ 7.6
.E1  7.5/ 7.4/ 7.4/ 7.3/
:
:
: Cedar River  Waterloo - ALOI4
: HSA:DMX   Flood Stage:13.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:8.5 FT
.E ALOI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  21.5/ 21.2/ 20.8/ 20.3
.E ALOI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  19.9/ 19.5/ 19.0/ 18.6/ 18.2/ 17.9/ 17.4/ 16.8
.E1  16.3/ 15.9/ 15.4/ 15.0/ 14.5/ 14.0/ 13.6/ 13.0
.E1  12.6/ 12.2/ 11.9/ 11.5/ 11.2/ 10.8/ 10.5/ 10.3
.E1  10.1/ 9.9/ 9.7/ 9.5/
:
:
: Cedar River  Vinton - VINI4
: HSA:DVN   Flood Stage:15.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:14.0 FT
.E VINI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  21.6/ 21.8/ 21.7/ 21.6
.E VINI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  21.4/ 21.1/ 20.9/ 20.6/ 20.4/ 20.0/ 19.7/ 19.4
.E1  19.0/ 18.6/ 18.3/ 17.9/ 17.6/ 17.2/ 16.8/ 16.4
.E1  16.1/ 15.7/ 15.3/ 14.9/ 14.5/ 14.1/ 13.7/ 13.4
.E1  13.0/ 12.7/ 12.3/ 12.0/
:
:
: Cedar River  Cedar Rapids - CIDI4
: HSA:DVN   Flood Stage:12.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:10.0 FT
: ------------------------------------------------------------
: Crest Range 22 - 24 ft
:
: There is confidence in routed flow to CIDI4 however uncertainty
: remains in the flow-stage relationships.  The USGS has reported
: 14 of 16 measurments on the Cedar River and tribs with negative
: shifts during this event.  This has been producing higher stages
: than expected based on rated flows. The shifts are presumably from
: peak vegetation in the channel and flood plain this time of the
: year.
:
: The gage at CIDI4 is beginning to undercut the previous forecast a
: bit...however the channel and floodplain conditions could be delaying
: the routed flow even more than previously expected.
:
: With the all the uncertainty involved in this non-typical flood
: feel it is best to keep crest at 23 ft and delay it 6-12 hours.
:
: ------------------------------------------------------------
: CREST FORECAST
.A CIDI4  0927 Z DH18/DC09270158/HGIFFX  23.0
:
.E CIDI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  17.0/ 18.9/ 20.3/ 21.1
.E CIDI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  22.0/ 22.6/ 23.0/ 23.0/ 22.6/ 22.1/ 21.6/ 21.1
.E1  20.5/ 20.0/ 19.5/ 18.9/ 18.4/ 17.9/ 17.3/ 16.8
.E1  16.3/ 15.8/ 15.3/ 14.8/ 14.3/ 13.8/ 13.3/ 12.8
.E1  12.3/ 11.8/ 11.3/ 10.9/
:
:
: Cedar River  Conesville - CNEI4
: HSA:DVN   Flood Stage:13.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:12.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A CNEI4  0930 Z DH12/DC09270158/HGIFFX  18.1
:
.E CNEI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  13.8/ 13.9/ 13.9/ 14.1
.E CNEI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  14.2/ 14.4/ 14.6/ 14.9/ 15.2/ 15.5/ 15.9/ 16.4
.E1  16.8/ 17.3/ 17.6/ 17.8/ 18.0/ 18.1/ 18.1/ 18.1
.E1  18.0/ 17.9/ 17.8/ 17.7/ 17.5/ 17.3/ 17.2/ 17.0
.E1  16.8/ 16.6/ 16.4/ 16.2/
:
:
: Iowa River  Rowan - ROWI4
: HSA:DMX   Flood Stage:12.5 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:9.0 FT
.E ROWI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  13.7/ 13.5/ 13.4/ 13.2
.E ROWI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  13.0/ 12.9/ 12.8/ 12.6/ 12.4/ 12.2/ 12.1/ 11.9
.E1  11.8/ 11.6/ 11.5/ 11.4/ 11.2/ 11.1/ 11.0/ 10.9
.E1  10.8/ 10.7/ 10.5/ 10.3/ 10.1/ 9.9/ 9.7/ 9.5
.E1  9.4/ 9.2/ 9.0/ 8.9/
:
:
: Iowa River  Marshalltown - MIWI4
: HSA:DMX   Flood Stage:19.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:14.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A MIWI4  0928 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFFX  19.0
:
.E MIWI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  18.3/ 18.4/ 18.4/ 18.5
.E MIWI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  18.6/ 18.7/ 18.8/ 18.9/ 19.0/ 19.0/ 18.9/ 18.7
.E1  18.5/ 18.3/ 18.1/ 17.9/ 17.7/ 17.5/ 17.3/ 17.1
.E1  16.8/ 16.6/ 16.4/ 16.1/ 15.9/ 15.6/ 15.3/ 15.2
.E1  15.0/ 15.0/ 14.9/ 14.8/
:
:
: Iowa River  Tama - TMAI4
: HSA:DMX   Flood Stage:12.5 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:11.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A TMAI4  0929 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFFX  13.0
:
.E TMAI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  12.2/ 12.2/ 12.3/ 12.4
.E TMAI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  12.5/ 12.5/ 12.6/ 12.7/ 12.7/ 12.8/ 12.9/ 12.9
.E1  13.0/ 13.0/ 13.0/ 13.0/ 12.9/ 12.8/ 12.7/ 12.6
.E1  12.5/ 12.4/ 12.2/ 12.0/ 11.9/ 11.7/ 11.4/ 11.2
.E1  10.9/ 10.5/ 10.1/ 9.6/
:
:
: Iowa River  Marengo - MROI4
: HSA:DVN   Flood Stage:14.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:13.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A MROI4  1003 Z DH00/DC09270158/HGIFFX  17.0
:
.E MROI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  15.2/ 15.1/ 15.1/ 15.1
.E MROI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  15.1/ 15.1/ 15.1/ 15.1/ 15.2/ 15.2/ 15.4/ 15.5
.E1  15.7/ 15.8/ 15.9/ 16.1/ 16.2/ 16.3/ 16.4/ 16.5
.E1  16.5/ 16.6/ 16.7/ 16.8/ 16.8/ 16.9/ 16.9/ 17.0
.E1  17.0/ 17.0/ 17.0/ 17.0/
:
:
: Iowa River  Iowa City - IOWI4
: HSA:DVN   Flood Stage:22.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:21.0 FT
.E IOWI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  16.3/ 16.3/ 16.3/ 16.3
.E IOWI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  16.3/ 16.3/ 16.2/ 16.1/ 16.1/ 16.1/ 13.6/ 11.1
.E1  11.1/ 11.1/ 11.1/ 11.0/ 11.0/ 11.0/ 11.0/ 11.0
.E1  11.0/ 11.0/ 11.0/ 11.0/ 11.0/ 11.0/ 11.0/ 11.0
.E1  11.0/ 11.0/ 13.5/ 16.0/
:
:
: Iowa River  Columbus Junction - CJTI4
: HSA:DVN   Flood Stage:19.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:18.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A CJTI4  1001 Z DH00/DC09270158/HGIFFX  26.5
:
.E CJTI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  18.9/ 18.9/ 18.9/ 19.0
.E CJTI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  19.1/ 19.3/ 19.5/ 19.9/ 20.4/ 21.1/ 21.7/ 22.4
.E1  23.0/ 23.6/ 24.3/ 25.0/ 25.6/ 26.1/ 26.3/ 26.5
.E1  26.5/ 26.5/ 26.5/ 26.3/ 26.2/ 26.0/ 25.7/ 25.3
.E1  24.9/ 24.6/ 24.3/ 23.9/
:
:
: Iowa River  Wapello - WAPI4
: HSA:DVN   Flood Stage:20.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:18.5 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A WAPI4  1001 Z DH12/DC09270158/HGIFFX  27.9
:
.E WAPI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  20.5/ 20.5/ 20.5/ 20.5
.E WAPI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  20.5/ 20.6/ 20.7/ 21.0/ 21.4/ 21.9/ 22.4/ 23.0
.E1  23.6/ 24.2/ 24.7/ 25.3/ 25.9/ 26.5/ 27.0/ 27.5
.E1  27.7/ 27.9/ 27.9/ 27.8/ 27.7/ 27.5/ 27.2/ 27.0
.E1  26.7/ 26.3/ 26.0/ 25.7/
:
:
: Iowa River  OAKVILLE - OKVI4
: HSA:DVN   Flood Stage:10.0 FT   Fcst Issuance Stage:9.0 FT
: CREST FORECAST
.A OKVI4  1001 Z DH12/DC09270158/HGIFFX  17.2
:
.E OKVI4 0926 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIP/DIH06 :6-Hr Obs Stage (ft)
.E1  10.4/ 10.4/ 10.4/ 10.4
.E OKVI4 0927 Z DH06/DC09270158/HGIFF/DIH06 :6-Hr Fcst Stage (ft)
.E1  10.4/ 10.4/ 10.6/ 10.9/ 11.1/ 11.3/ 11.7/ 12.2
.E1  12.8/ 13.3/ 13.8/ 14.3/ 15.0/ 15.7/ 16.3/ 16.7
.E1  17.0/ 17.2/ 17.2/ 17.2/ 17.0/ 16.9/ 16.6/ 16.3
.E1  16.0/ 15.7/ 15.3/ 14.9/
:
:
:END

 NOTE...  This product includes observed precipitation, plus
          forecast precipitation for the next 24 Hours.

$$

 FCSTR EXT: 2539




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