Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 010438
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/01/14 0438Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0415Z        WARREN
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LOCATION...MISSOURI...IOWA...KANSAS...NEBRASKA...
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ATTN WFOS...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...UPDATE TO PREVIOUS SPENES REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0430-0930Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SEEN LIFTING NE TOWARDS
SW IA IS ALLOWING PROGRESSIVE MOD/HVY RAIN SHOWERS/TSTMS TO EXIT SE NE
AND ADVANCE INTO SWRN IA PER LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.  THE NEXT
IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FARTHER TO THE SSW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KS.  A GRADUALLY VEERING 40KT 850-MB LLJ IS HELPING TO
INCREASE THE ORGANIZATION OF STORMS ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  WITH A THIRD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND
ENHANCED UL JET STREAK ENERGY LOCATED UPSTREAM ACROSS SRN CO AND POISED
TO REACH THE DISCUSSION AREA BTWN 08-10Z...ANTICIPATING FURTHER UPSTREAM
CELL DEVELOPMENT WHICH WOULD ONLY HELP TO REINFORCE REPEAT CELL TRAINING
ACROSS ERN KS INTO NW MO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT YET BEEN THAT IMPRESSIVE THUS FAR
WITH ONLY SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1.0" IN AN HR HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS SE NE...DO EXPECT THIS IS CHANGE.  THIS MODEST/LOCALIZED 1.0"/HR
RATES THUS FAR MAY BE DUE IN PART TO THE RATHER SHALLOW AND NARROW PW
MOISTURE PLUME WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT (PER REGIONAL 00Z RAOBS) DURING THE
INITIAL FEW HRS...LIMITING RAINFALL RATES A BIT.   HOWEVER THIS PLUME
OF MOISTURE CAN BE TRACED BACK TO A TROPICAL ORIGIN...NOW POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE RACHEL IN THE ERN PACIFIC PER 500-700-MB PW LAYER PRODUCT FROM
CIRA/NASA SPORT AND WITH RECENT TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR/RGB AIRMASS PRODUCT
INDICATING MID TO UL MOISTURE ADVECTION TACKING PLACE...WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE RAINFALL RATES INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

MOST CONCERNED ABOUT A CORRIDOR FROM JUST NE OF MHK E TO MCI THEN NE
TO LWD AND W TO SDA (PRIMARILY NE KS/EXT SE NE/NW MO) OVER THE NEXT
4-6 HRS.  GIVEN THE TRENDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD
WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CELL REGENERATION/TRAINING...THIS EVOLUTION
SEEMS TO ALIGN WELL WITH INITIAL THOUGHTS FROM PREVIOUS SPENES.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4149 9463 4102 9345 3989 9310 3869 9486 3837 9744
3972 9697 4106 9620
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